Wars have been a part of humanity since prehistoric times, and are expected to remain an important component of future human societies. Since the beginning of the history wars have evolved in parallel with the changes in Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values (STEEPV). The changing circumstances unavoidably affect the characteristics of warfare through its motivations, shape and size. Armies have adapted themselves to these changing characteristics of warfare through Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) by introducing new military concepts and technologies. Based on the overview of the evolution of military technologies and concepts as a response to changing conditions, the aim of the present study is to anticipate what and how future technologies and concepts will shape warfare and drive impending RMAs. To answer this question, first the RMA literature is reviewed within a broader historical context to understand the extent to which military concepts and technologies affected the RMAs. Then, a time-based technological trend analysis is conducted through the analysis of military patents to understand the impact of technological developments on military concepts. Following the historical analyses, two scenarios are developed for the future of military R&D based on ‘concept-driven’ and ‘technology-driven’ factors. The article is concluded with a discussion about the implications of future scenarios for military R&D, and likely RMAs through the changes of concepts and technologies, and possible consequences such as transformations in organizational structures of armies, new skill and capacity requirements, military education systems, and decision-making processes.
Over the last few decades, performance-based funding models of universities have been introduced and have made universities build and implement different strategies to enable them to compete and be viable in changing circumstances. In turn, national governments are focused on providing universities with more opportunities to run efficient programmes that advance higher education. This paper includes a detailed review of various taxonomies for structuring university. More importantly, it develops a typology of higher education institutions that is relevant for the Russian context. The Ward method is used to cluster universities on the basis of university distinctions in terms of the availability of resources, education, and research and development. This typology of universities is verified by assessing their efficiency score gained from modified Data Envelopment Analysis,incorporating universities' heterogeneity. Finally, the paper gives a decision tree for classifying universities bearing in mind their diversity. It might be expanded for abroader set of inputs and outputs, namely external projectbased research funding modes and cooperation between universities and industry to pursue the development of innovation. The results can be used for shaping targeted policies aimed at particular university groups
Time series of US patents per million inhabitants show cyclic structures which can be attributed to the different knowledge-generating paradigms that drive innovation systems. The changes in the slopes between the waves can be used to indicate efficiencies in the generation of knowledge. When knowledge-generating systems are associated with idem innovation systems, the efficiency of the latter can be modeled in terms of interactions among dimensions (for example, in terms of university–industry–government relations). The resulting model predicts an increase in efficiency with an increasing number of dimensions due to the effects of self-organization among them. The dynamics of the knowledge-generating cycles can be analyzed in terms of Fibonacci numbers; successive cycles are expected to exhibit shorter life cycles than previous ones. This perspective enables us to forecast the expected dates of future paradigm changes.
The FTA community relies on a set of disciplines and methods, which try to better understand and shape the future from different methodological perspectives. Whilst the community has grown since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue and exchange between those applying quantitative and those applying qualitative methods. The FTA events have, since the beginning, provided an avenue to debate methodological aspects and this paper summarises and furthers the discussion developed during the 2011 edition, building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong. In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration. It shows how significant progress has been made for simpler forms of combinations but not for more sophisticated (and perhaps more promising) ones. Following that, it suggests that an epistemological divide, common to the social sciences as a whole, combined with cultural differences and misconceptions within the FTA community are amongst the factors undermining further methodological integration. The paper concludes by suggesting some steps, combining research and practice, to overcome such barriers.
Roadmapping is a broadly applied management instrument for developing and implementing company technology and innovation strategies. During the last years this national science, technology and innovation (STI) policy makers have become aware of the potential roadmapping offers for strategic technology and innovation management and begun applying it in the context of STI policy and priority setting in this context especially. Still reality shows that roadmapping for STI policy purposes is by far more complex than company technology and innovation roadmapping.
The article therefore develops a structured, integrated and flexible approach to roadmapping for STI policy which we name “Smart Roadmapping for STI Policy”, taking into account the complexity of STI policy as well as the need for and implications of a Targeted Open Innovation approach to STI policy and the resulting requirements to roadmaps. The proposed approach is designed to allow integration in the broader policy decision making and different level STI strategy implementation.
The Northern economies have been the main sources of technologies for the global garment manufacturing industry. Over the past decade, China has become an important alternative source of these technologies offering a range of technological choices for small scale and dispersed production of cheap consumer goods, particularly in the developing world. Preceding a national foresight exercise aimed at enhancing the capabilities of small-scale garment producers in Uganda, we examine the potential ‘inclusiveness’ of garment sewing machines imported from the Northern economies and China, and their individual potential to enhance the capabilities of poor garment producers, particularly, women and rural dwellers. Data for our study included a survey and semi-structured interviews with 147 garment firms and other key informants. Compared to the Chinese sewing machines, we found that the Northern machines have high acquisition cost, relies on scale and advanced infrastructure, and tend to exclude poor rural producers (often women). The transfer of Chinese technologies to Uganda, we also found is much easier, have larger spread effects, leading to smaller gaps in technological know-how between China and Uganda because of the context in which Chinese technological innovations are induced. We conclude with some implication of our study to theory and policy.
This article contributes to the literature on academic inbreeding by analyzing its rational, origins, resilience, and options to limit it in two higher education systems (Russia and Portugal) chosen purposively for having more differences than similarities, while sharing high levels of academic inbreeding. Findings show more homogeneity than heterogeneity with regard to the understanding of academic inbreeding as a social phenomenon, its roots, dynamics and role in developing higher education systems. Academic inbreeding is not defined as completely negative but rather fulfills a developmental role, particularly in the early development of these higher education systems, assuming a more detrimental effect later on. Positive and negative impacts of academic inbreeding are discussed, including factors and motivations that contribute for this practice to persist. Finally, three suggestions to curtail academic inbreeding are forwarded: not ending it by decree, fostering internationalization (especially mobility) and implementing transparent recruitment practices.
In recent decades, the attention of researchers and policymakers has turned to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), in particular the role they play in science, technology and innovation and the methods they use to implement innovation strategies. In this paper, we look at Russian state-owned companies and their development plans, as well as the management tools they employ to forecast and prioritize technologies. Although most Russian SOEs rarely implement corporate foresight and technology roadmapping, certain successful cases are presented and discussed in the paper. Based on these case studies, we suggest a common structure of a technology roadmap that is suitable for SOEs.
Many foresight exercises have been undertaken with the aim of improving the performance of innovation ecosystems. These ecosystems extend across different layers including the organisational, sectoral, regional, national and international dimensions. The interconnectedness of these layers has not have received much attention in foresight literature and practise. However, both the development and diffusion of innovations are subject to framework conditions not only within, but also across, multiple layers of innovation ecosystems.
The design and management of foresight exercises are thus liable to addressing and serving these different layers — especially when the goal is to improve the performance and impact of such “interconnected and interdependent systems”. This paper develops further the concept of ‘multi-layered foresight’ by addressing multiple layers of innovation ecosystems in foresight design and management. We explore the implications of applying this type of foresight on improving systemic understanding, enhancing stakeholder networking and developing innovation capacities across the layers of ecosystems. The theoretical underpinnings are tested through a case study of the ‘Personal Health Systems (PHS) Foresight’ project. This project explored international future developments in the health sector, which is characterised by multiple disciplines, communities of practise, technologies, and geographical contexts. In the case of PHS the emerging innovation ecosystems are often conditioned by fragmented development communities, major barriers to market development, and duplication of efforts. The project combined analytical, social networking, online envisioning and scenario building methods to address complexity and create impact in multiple layers. Possible futures for personal health systems were explored through intense dialogues with stakeholders and a desirable future state was sketched through the success scenario methodology. The implications and strategic issues for different groups of stakeholders were outlined, enabling these stakeholders to articulate their efforts as part of a broader agenda at the multiple layers of innovation ecosystems.