The paper analyzes the factors and trends of the Russian crises of 1990–2010 and their impact on the economic development of regions, the labor market and personal income, and the state of regional budgets. It considers the factors and dynamics of the crisis of 2014–2015 and its difference from previous ones: the conditionality by internal barriers of development with the subsequent influence of external factors, the slower downturn in industry, and the retention of relative stability on the labor market. The main crisis-related problems for regions are revealed: destabilization of their budgets since 2013, the drop in personal income and the advance drop in consumption, and the extended reduction in investments. Differences in crisis-related trends are shown for regions with different economies and geographical positions. The study analyzes the risks and forms of crisis adaptation of the populations of the largest cities with predominance of the service sector in the employment structure, the smaller industrial cities, and the rural periphery. State policy measures to stabilize regional budgets, support industry and regional labor markets in crisis periods are considered.
В данной статье моделируется внутренняя миграция в России и выявляются основ- ные движущие ее факторы. На основании официальных данных Росстата за период с 1999 по 2010 год оценивается модель факторов миграции на панельных данных российских регионов. В качестве факторов миграции рассматриваются демографические факторы, показатели рынка труда, жилья, качества жизни, предоставление общественных благ, инфраструктура, а также расходы консолидированных бюджетов регионов на различные нужды. Получено, что чувствительность миграции выше к демографическим и экономическим факторам (обеспеченность жильем и среднедушевые доходы), нежели различным социальным и иным факторам. Среди расходов региональных бюджетов наибольшее влияние на миграцию оказывают расходы на образование и здравоохранение в регионах.
The possibility of determining the branch competitiveness of regions using the shift-share analysis is considered. It allows for the revealing of the formation factors of competitiveness and evaluating their effects in terms of three directions: effect of changes in the national economy, regional development stimuli, and internal efficiency factor of a particular branch in the region. A comparative analysis is carried out, where the Central Federal District of Russia in 2005–2009 serves as an example. Graphical analysis on the basis of three parameters, namely, GRP, number of employed in the economy, and labor productivity, made it possible to decompose the branch shift of regional economies into the following components: DIF effect (contribution of a branch’s internal efficiency), MIX effect (effect of the structure of the regional economy), and the effect of national development factors. The detection of branches capable of being growth drivers for the region will make it possible for regional efficiency management entities to purposefully create favorable conditions and stimuli for the balanced development of the region.
The problems of formation of organizational and economic mechanisms necessary to strengthen the position of Siberia in the economic space of the country were reviewed. The proposals refer to the reformation of the state regional policy and modernization of the regional strategic planning, provision of the implementation of the “Strategy of Socioeconomic Development of Siberia” and breakthroughs innovations in Siberian regions, and economic mechanisms of production development in this macroregion. A special emphasis is placed on measures for the fundamental modernization of Siberia’s mineral resource complex.
The article covers geographical and technological factors which determine the location and development of Russia’s timber industry in the market environment. Trends in the spatial pattern of Russian timber and pulp-and-paper exports in 2000–2010 are analyzed. The production pattern of timber and pulp-and-paper products is analyzed for Russia’s largest interregional timber industry manufacturers. The post-Soviet shifts in the geographies of timber resources and the relevant demand are evaluated. Synthesis of three sets of factors helps formulate a long-term forecast of the future spatial shifts in the location of the timber industry’s production facilities. Development centers are expected in regions adjacent to Irkutsk oblast that have a common border with China—the largest importer of Russian timber and pulp-and-paper products-and combine significant timber resources with a relatively dense population and infrastructure.
Land relations in Russia have traditionally been one of the thorniest issues at any time. An analysis of land relations development during recent decades and the causes of many land use problems leads us to conclude that the public ownership of the majority of land and non-specified property and land use rights serve as a serious impediment to the effective use of land resources in Russia. To evaluate influence of land relations on urban development a survey of experts’ opinions was conducted in St. Petersburg. The results of the survey allowed to identify main problems in land market regulation and gaps in St. Petersburg legislation on urban development and planning. In conclusion there were defined some measures, which should be done to improve the system of land relations and urban development in Russia.
The article assesses the dynamics of migration effectiveness by Russian regions over a long time period. Russian and foreign studies have found that people with migration experience change their place of residence more easily compared with those who have never moved. Migrants are divided into two main groups, namely, newcomers and long-time residents who have lived in a migration destination for a long time, and a transitional group from newcomers to long-time residents. Moscow, St. Petersburg, and their oblasts are subjects where migrants adapt the best. For a long time, in most Far Eastern and Siberian subjects (except for the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), the large number of migrants who departed a region were compensated by large number of arriving migrants. The collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent socioeconomic crisis have shown that population outflow occurs primarily in regions with the highest share of new settlers. Attempts to force the development of areas with harsh natural conditions and low adaptation by the population led to a massive return migration. Ensuring the adaptation of new settlers and their transition to long-time residents, rather than a high number of arrivals, is important for regional migration policy. Adaptation largely depends on the level of socioeconomic development of regions and particular localities.
On the basis of the first results of Russia’s 2010 population census, the population dynamics of Russia’s regions for the 2002—2010 period is described and discrepancies between the census data and the results of the current record of the population for the recent intercensus period are analyzed. The results of the census are critically considered with allowance for problems in its operation in such regions as the North Caucasus republics, Moscow, and certain other regions; the incorrectness of the 2002 census data on the population size in certain regions is argued. Population migration between particular macroregions is estimated based on the net balance of the population size from the results of the 2010 census.