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Найдены 53 публикации
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Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2018. Vol. 392. No. 10152. P. 1015-1035.
Добавлено: 31 августа 2018
Статья
Marten R., McIntyre D., Travassos C. et al. The Lancet. 2014. Vol. 384. No. 9960. P. 2164-2173.
Добавлено: 23 октября 2017
Статья
Leon D. A., Shkolnikov V., Smeeth L. et al. The Lancet. 2020. Vol. 395. No. 10234.
Добавлено: 29 апреля 2020
Статья
Gerry C., Mickiewicz T., Nikoloskic Z. The Lancet. 2010. Vol. 375. No. 9712.
Добавлено: 25 ноября 2015
Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2020. Vol. 396. No. 10258. P. 1135-1159.
Добавлено: 16 октября 2020
Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2020. Vol. 396. No. 10258. P. 1204-1222.
Добавлено: 16 октября 2020
Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2020. Vol. 396. No. 10258. P. 1223-1249.
Добавлено: 16 октября 2020
Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2018. Vol. 392. No. 10159. P. 1684-1735.
Добавлено: 16 ноября 2018
Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2017. Vol. 390. No. 10100. P. 1151-1210.
Добавлено: 15 сентября 2017
Статья
Vlassov V. The Lancet. 2014. Vol. 348. No. 9947. P. 1005-1070.

Abstract: Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal 6 (MDG 6). The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation 1990 to 2013, and an opportunity to assess if there has been accelerated progress since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of the literature on mortality with and without out antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalized epidemics, we minimized a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data on all-cause mortality. We analyzed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and anti-retroviral therapy (ART). For tuberculosis, we analyzed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modeling. We analyzed data on corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian metaregression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. Malaria mortality and incidence were analyzed using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria and recent literature on incidence, drug resistance and coverage of insecticide treated bed nets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.0 million prevalent HIV cases (27.9 to 31.4) and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.2 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 to 1.9). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and Eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.3 million life years have been saved, 68.9% in the developing world. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was $4,647-$7,137 in the developing world. All-forms tuberculosis (including Individuals who are HIV-positive) incidence, prevalence and death numbers in 2013 were 6.6 million (6.4 to 6.7), 10.1 million (9.8 to 10.4) and 1.4 million (1.3 to 1.5), the same figures in Individuals who are HIV-negative were 6.1 million (6.0 to 6.3), 9.5 million (9.2 to 9.8) and 1.3 million

Добавлено: 30 мая 2014