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Modelling monetary policy in real time: does discreteness matter?
EERC
,
2008.
No. 08-07.
Sirchenko A.
This paper applies an empirical framework, combining the use of ordered probit approach, novel real-time data set and decision-making meetings of monetary authority as a unit of observation, to estimate highly systematic reaction patterns between policy rate decisions of the National Bank of Poland and incoming economic data for the period 1999 - 2007. The paper measures the empirical significance of rate discreteness and demonstrates that both the discrete-choice approach and real-time “policy-meeting” data do matter in the econometric identification of Polish monetary policy. The study detects structural breaks in policy, which switched its focus from current to expected inflation and from exchange rate to real activity. The response to inflationary expectation is shown to be highly asymmetrical depending on whether the expectation is above or below the inflation target. The policy rate appears to be driven by key economic indicators without evidence for intentional interest-rate smoothing by central bank. The estimated rules explain correctly 95 percent of observed policy actions and surpass the market anticipation, made one day prior to a policy meeting, both in and out of sample.
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al., M. : Sberbank CIB, 2015
Increasing volatility on financial markets, uncertainty about Greece's debt restructuring and economic slowdown, and currency depreciation in the CIS region have put growth prospects in Poland and Latvia at risk. However, Poland has more flexibility to respond to these challenges, as it has an independent monetary policy and weaker links with the CIS. ...
Added: August 13, 2015
Akindinova N., Dabrowski M., Широв А. А. et al., Вопросы экономики 2020 № 7 С. 5-50
The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in ...
Added: July 8, 2020
Gloveli G., Вопросы политической экономии 2017 № 1 С. 79-100
The creative development of A.A. Bogdanov, the person of encyclopaedic learning, is traced in the article. It includes the period from his writing of the first Russian Marxist textbook of political economy [written for workers circle] up to the formation of Tektology as the universal scientific systems theory. A concise description is given of the ...
Added: January 20, 2018
Gloveli G., Вопросы политической экономии 2017 № 2 С. 38-52
An article reconstructs and analyzes the evolutionary agrarian conception of Russian economist, statistician, geographer and politician N.P.Oganovsky in the context of history of political economy, an agrarian question and the Russian revolution.Distinctions between Oganovsky's generalizations and formational approach are shown. If the Marxism hasn't noted some essential details of structural changes in agriculture, then Oganovsky ...
Added: January 26, 2018
Simachev Y. V., Kuzyk M., Погребняк Е. В., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2018 № 3 (39) С. 146-154
The article typologies the Russian industrial policy of the 2000s, discusses major initiatives in this area, as well as changes in the state’s approach to the industrial policy. The tendency of the state to implement vertical policy is noted; while horizontal mechanisms are often “verticalized” under the influence of traditional interest groups. The state actively ...
Added: September 20, 2018
Dabrowski M., Russian Journal of Economics 2016 Vol. 2 No. 3 P. 302-326
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors. The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) ...
Added: October 27, 2016
Kuznetsov B., Gimpelson V. E., Yakovlev A. A. et al., NY : Oxford University Press, 2015
This book provides a unique and timely analysis of the role of structural change in the economic development of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) with a consideration for the role of industry, and in particular manufacturing. The emergence of BRICS reflects an ongoing change in the international economic order. BRICS now account ...
Added: February 28, 2016
Apokin A. Yu., Ipatova I.B., Studies on Russian Economic Development 2017 Vol. 28 No. 1 P. 15-21
The article valuates structural changes in the total factor productivity for the GDP of a number of world economies based on two samples in 1990–2010. These estimates are used to study structural changes in the total factor productivity in Russia. ...
Added: June 16, 2017
Mkhitarian V., Поликарпова М. Г., Вопросы статистики 2014 № 3 С. 23-30
In the article we represents some results of statistical analysis of the integration activities of the economic sectors Russian Federation in 2008-2012, and also viewed some features of industry segmentation of deals. On the basis of this analysis it is possible to form a qualitative market infrastructure of the corporate control and to work out ...
Added: December 19, 2014
Kopnova E., Rodionova L., Прикладная эконометрика 2020 Т. 60 № 12 С. 80-101
The work is devoted to modeling the dynamic relationship of globalization and the level of socio-economic development in Russia. Vector error correction models taking into account structural shifts in trend parameters for short time series are considered. The results of the calculations are compared with the counterparts in Switzerland and the Netherlands. The bidirectionality of ...
Added: January 4, 2021
Upadhyaya S., Kitrar L. A., Ostapkovich G. V. et al., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 60.
The main goal of the study is to identify the scope and trends in the manufacturing development of Russia and other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the context of integration effectiveness, industrial policy quality, and competitiveness growth. Under current unfavorable conditions – the fall in world oil prices, devaluation of national ...
Added: May 17, 2016
Kotelnikova M. V., Aistov A., Вестник Нижегородского университета им. Н.И. Лобачевского. Серия: Социальные науки 2019 Т. 55 № 3 С. 183-189
The article describes a method that allows to improve the content of disciplines of the mathematical cycle by dividing them into invariant (general) and variable parts. The invariants were identified for such disciplines as «Linear algebra», «Mathematical analysis», «Probability theory and mathematical statistics» delivered to Bachelors program students of economics at several universities. Based on ...
Added: January 28, 2020
М. : КноРус, 2012
Представлена экономическая оценка природно-ресурсного потенциала РФ, рассмотрены закономерности размещения природных ресурсов и основные особенности экологической ситуации в регионах страны, описано влияние экологических факторов на демографический потенциал и здоровье населения, приведена характеристика основных загрязнителей окружающей среды, изложены основы природно-ресурсной политики России и хозяйственный механизм ее осуществления, раскрыты региональные различия современной экологической обстановки в стране и тенденции ...
Added: March 10, 2013
М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2014
В сборнике рассматриваются теоретические и практические проблемы взаимодействия человека, техносферы и биосферы, а также преодоления антропогенной деградации биосферы.
Для научных работников, специалистов, преподавателей и аспирантов. ...
Added: October 22, 2014
Lipatnikov V. S., Гребенькова Е. С., Проблемы теории и практики управления 2014 № 12 С. 89-96
In this article is conducted research of the mechanism of selection of venture innovative projects. We studied the factors, which influence a choice of business angels. The purpose of work was to receive an advanced system of estimation of projects. On the basis of the survey it is possible to say that the financing of ...
Added: December 8, 2014
Oxford Abstracts, 2021
Recovering from Covid: Responsible Management and Reshaping the Economy
In 2021, the 35th Conference and 2nd BAM Conference in the Cloud, will critically engage with the socio-economic recovery from the global Covid-19 pandemic.
Consumers, producers, frontline workers, managers, businesses, public and third sector organisations all have their own roles and responsibilities in transforming our marketised society for the post-pandemic world.
We will critically explore the challenges we all face, aiming to ...
Added: June 12, 2021
Dzhagityan E. P., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2019 Т. 14 № 2 С. 245-274
The institutional aspect of post-crisis banking regulation reform (Basel III) remains unsettled, and as such undermines regulators’ efforts to shape a seamless platform for international financial intermediation. The lack of global acceptance of the Basel III standards amid the internationalization of banking activities is one of the main reasons for regulatory asymmetries which are difficult ...
Added: August 28, 2018
Kuchmaeva O., Население и экономика 2018 Т. 2 № 4 С. 47-84
Статья посвящена анализу масштабов и видов социальной активности пожилых россиян. Актуальность данной проблемы обусловлена масштабами демографического старения, ставшего уже предметом целенаправленной социальной политики в России и странах мира. Реализуя Международный план действий по проблемам старения, в частности, в рамках Стратегии действий в интересах граждан старшего поколения в Российской
Федерации до 2025 г., важно понимать, насколько сейчас ...
Added: October 30, 2019
Parshakov P., Shakina E., Barajas A., Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 2022 Vol. 35 No. 1 P. 122-142
This article contributes to the development of contestable market theory by investigating how competitiveness in the eSports industry influences the size of this industry, as measured by the volume of monetary prizes. We use data on each gamer's prize earnings for each tournament from 1999 to 2015 to estimate panel vector autoregression (VAR) model with ...
Added: April 22, 2021
Smirnov S. V., Balashova E., Posvianskaia L., Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
Krukov V. A., ЭКО 2018 Т. 48 № 10 С. 4-6
Социально-экономическое развитие территории – от отдельного муниципалитета до региона, страны и межгосударственных коалиций – определяется огромным количеством факторов, условий и обстоятельств. История, природа, географическое положение, ранее принятые и реализованные решения в тесном взаимодействии с культурными особенностями населения образуют колоссальный веер возможностей и траекторий такого развития.
В этой связи чужой успешный опыт часто мало применим на практике. Он, скорее, показывает нам, в каких направлениях можно развиваться и какие возможные подходы целесообразно рассматривать при выборе своего пути. Например, сегодня ...
Added: October 20, 2018
Chulok A., Slobodianik S., Moiseichev E. Y., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 511-527
Purpose
This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.
Design/methodology/approach
Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on ...
Added: October 3, 2017
Neretina Ekaterina, Neretina E., Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics 2013 Vol. 3 No. 1 P. 65-76
The last market crash of 2008-2009 showed that the construction sphere is one of the most fragile subject to the crisis effect. The destructive effect of this crash resulted in substantial decrease in mortgage lending, price index, capital investment, and in growth of the cost level. As the construction industry remains strategically important, the eruption ...
Added: September 5, 2013
Турунцева М., Астафьева Е., Баева М. et al., Научный вестник ИЭП им. Гайдара.ру (электронный журнал) 2015 № 3(85) С. 3-33
В статье представлены расчеты прогнозных значений различных экономических показателей Российской Федерации во II–III кварталах 2015 г., построенные на основе моделей временных рядов, структурных эконометрических уравнений и моделей, построенных с использованием результатов конъюнктурных опросов. ...
Added: June 18, 2015