The transformation of emerging markets in recent decades has generated a new, growing, and very large middle class market, also known as the middle of the pyramid. This market segment, which is middle by the standards of emerging markets yet low by the standards of advanced economies, is extremely attractive for firms, but still understood and underserved. This volume presents detailed analyses of exemplary firms that have innovated products, services, and business models to fulfil the needs and desires of these new middle classes. It provides useful insights for managers, consultants, researchers, and students interested in emerging economies, and actionable lessons on how to innovate for a new and expanding market segment.

Working Title: From Corporate Social Responsibility to Corporate Social Liability

Subtitle: A Socio-Legal Study of Corporate Liability in Global Value Chains

Series: N/A 

 

Articles of the collection are devoted to the analysis of trends and directions of research in the field of innovation and entrepreneurship. The issues of the current state of development of entrepreneurship, innovation, human resource management, marketing, regional development, public administration, under conditions of digitalization and pandemic COVID-19 are investigated. The collection is of interest to economists and sociologists, teachers, students and postgraduate students.

 The goal of the handbook is to add significant knowledge and experience to research methods in public administration, management and policy by exploring, in both a detailed and progressive manner, a variety of research methods that can take our field and discipline into the next generation of evolution. Its aim to provide readers (students, academics, field experts, policy designers, policy makers, etc) with the most advanced toolbox for understanding the science of public administration, management, and policy for the third decade of the twenty-first century. It is focused mostly on innovative research architectures, useful research techniques and best practices for the study of modern bureaucracy and the behavior of its agents and stakeholders. Providing specific examples of how these methods are used will enable a down-to-earth understanding of a variety of intellectual paths and sophisticated techniques.

The publication was carried out within the framework of a joint project of HSE University and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the USSR / Russia and the Republic of Indonesia. The project heads are Dr. Evgeny Kanaev (HSE University) and Dr. Dmitry Mosyakov (IOS RAS).

International Research Conference “GSOM Emerging Markets Conference-2020”

The 10-Point Action Plan to catalyse a Circular Bioeconomy of Wellbeing is a call for collective and integrated action to global leaders, investors, companies, scientists, governments, nongovernmental and intergovernmental organisations, funding agencies and society at large to put the world on a sustainable path. The Plan is guided by new scientific insights and breakthrough technologies from a number of disciplines and sectors. It is articulated around six transformative action points (1–6) and four enabling action points (7–10), which mutually reinforce each other and need to be implemented in an integrated manner.

Contents Authors................................................................................................................................ 7 Acknowledgements............................................................................................................9 Executive summary ........................................................................................................... 11 1. Introduction....................................................................................................................13 Riccardo Valentini, Pekka Leskinen, Pieter Johannes Verkerk, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, George Safonov and Elena Kulikova 2. State of Russian forests and forestry............................................................................17 Dmitry Zamolodchikov, Anatoly Shvidenko, Sergey Bartalev, Elena Kulikova, Alexander Held, Riccardo Valentini and Marcus Lindner 2.1 Major characteristics of Russian forests..........................................................17 2.2 Natural forest disturbances.............................................................................. 21 2.3 Forest governance and use..............................................................................26 2.4 Ecosystem functions and services of Russia’s forests....................................28 2.5 Key challenges in forest resource management..............................................35 2.6 Key messages.................................................................................................... 38 3. Climate change in Russia – past, present and future................................................. 45 Riccardo Valentini, Dmitry Zamolodchikov, Christopher Reyer, Sergio Noce, Monia Santini and Marcus Lindner 3.1 Observed changes of Russian climate in recent decades.............................. 45 3.2 Climate change scenarios................................................................................48 3.3 Key messages.....................................................................................................51 4. Climate change and Russian forests: impacts, vulnerability and adaptation needs... 53 Christopher Reyer, Marcus Lindner, Dmitry Zamolodchikov, Anatoly Shvidenko, Martin Gutsch and Sergey Bartalev 4.1 Observed impacts of climate change...............................................................53 4.2 Projected impacts.............................................................................................56 4.3 Vulnerability assessment................................................................................. 61 4.4 Adaptation needs............................................................................................. 64 4.5 Key messages....................................................................................................67

5. Climate-Smart Forestry in Russia and potential climate change mitigation benefits.............................................................................................................................. 73 Bas Lerink, Mariana Hassegawa, Alexander Kryshen, Anton Kovalev, Eldar Kurbanov, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Sergei Moshnikov and Pieter Johannes Verkerk 5.1 Introduction...................................................................................................... 73 5.2 Approach and general scenario assumptions.................................................74 5.3 Case study: Republic of Karelia.......................................................................78 5.4 Case study: Republic of Mari El.......................................................................84 5.5 Case study: Angara macro-district (Krasnoyarsk kray).................................. 91 5.6 Concluding remarks, discussion and implications....................................... 98 5.7 Key messages...................................................................................................101 6. The role of the bioeconomy in climate change mitigation in Russia..................... 105 Pekka Leskinen, Jo Van Brusselen, Mariana Hassegawa, Alexander Alekseev, Natalia Lukina, Olga Rakitova, George Safonov, Elena Kulikova and Mikhail Safonov 6.1 Introduction.................................................................................................... 105 6.2 The bioeconomy concept in Russia...............................................................106 6.3 The link between bioeconomy and climate change mitigation.................. 107 6.4 State of Russian forest industry and potential for bioeconomy................... 111 6.5 Sectoral development and outlook................................................................. 113 6.6 Summary and conclusions: Opportunities and challenges for a bioeconomy in Russia.....................................................................................123 6.7 Key messages...................................................................................................125 7. Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 131 Pekka Leskinen, Jo Van Brusselen, Marcus Lindner, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pieter Johannes Verkerk, Natalia Lukina, Sergey Bartalev and Elena Kulikova 7.1 Forest resources............................................................................................... 131 7.2 Climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation....................................132 7.3 Forest management........................................................................................ 133 7.4 Enabling environment for a bioeconomy......................................................134 7.5 Holistic view.................................................................................................... 135 7.6 Key messages and next steps ........................................................................ 136

The article focuses on the differences of medium-sized companies’ management methods: on the one hand, from companies in small (micro) business, and on the other hand, from large companies. The application of the method was tested at a medium-sized poultry farm. The analysis of projects of the real program was made, the network model of the program was built, and the probability of projects’ and the program at all success was estimated. The evaluation of the program indicators allowed the authors to make conclusions about priorities of separate projects. The proposed approach can be used in various companies, regardless of industry affiliation

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia (CEECCA) grew at a varying pace in 2000–2019, with an average rate of 6.5 percent per annum (GDP, PPP). This economic progress was accompanied by some positive changes in environmental performance, but not in all areas and not in all countries in the region.

The bond market is a key securities market and emerging economies present exciting, new investment opportunities. This timely book provides insights into these emerging bond markets through empirical models and analytical databases, i.e. Bloomberg, Eikon Refinitiv and the Russian Cbonds.

The book looks at the dynamics of the development of emerging bond markets, their competitiveness, features and patterns using macro and micro level data. It also takes into consideration various securities type i.e. government, corporate, sub-federal and municipal bonds, to identify respective challenges and risks. The book also analyses factors that may inhibit or stimulate a well-balanced financial market. It includes case studies of Asian, Latin American and Russian bond markets, as also as cross-country comparisons.

It will be a useful reference for anyone who is interested to learn more of the bond market and the modelling techniques for critical data analysis.

The international scientific and practical conference “DIGITAL FINANCE 2020” is the successor of the annual international round table “Financial technologies in the digital economy: problems and prospects of development in the world and Russia”, which was held at the faculty of Economics for two consecutive years (2018, 2019). Traditionally, the event was organized by the Department “Finance and credit” Faculty of Economics, RUDN. The event was co-organized by the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the Faculty of Business and information technology of the University “Turan-Astana” and National University of Science and Technology MISIS. This book addresses the processes of digitalization in various areas of Finance. We presented selected papers from the conference where we discussed a lot of important questions and points of three main sections issues: - “Institutions and markets in the digital environment”, - “Corporate and public finance and control in the digital environment”, - “Financial innovations, engineering, monetary systems and financial regulatory policies”.

This publication is the culmination of the 16th International Scientific Conference entitled “Human Potential Development” (HPD). The conference was held in Łódź between May the 28th–30th, 2019, and was patronized by the Associate Professor Tomasz Czapla, the Dean of the Faculty of Management at the University of Łódź, and also by the International Academic Network HPD CEEUS. The international nature of the conference resulted in ten articles in this publication being written in five languages, with English being the leading language of the conference. The aim of the conference was the international exchange of knowledge in the field of HPD in the context of the latest, theoretical and practical solutions, with particular emphasis on the need to create, motivate and develop the driving force of organizational changes – employees and managers. It was assumed that this goal would be implemented within three conference working areas: 1) using and developing human potential, 2) new challenges within the mentioned area, and 3) developing models and practices related to human potential and human resource management. The concept of HPD is common in the international human resource management literature, which emphasises its strategic dimension, and combines organizational and social goals with the promotion of a competitive advantage based on the human capital concept. At the same time, this strategic dimension is inseparably accompanied by the focus on the needs, aspirations, growth and development of people. As a consequence of the implementation of both dimensions, the creation of a learning and development culture has been observed as an inherent feature of training planning and implementation, as well as the creation of personal, employee and citizen development programs. Each of the authors presents different viewpoints within their HPD research, but the common theme of all findings and considerations were the expectations, decisions and behaviors of people in specific contexts of economic reality. The publication opens with an article by the British author William Chambers, a retired professor at Hope University in Liverpool, a longtime charity 12 • Introduction community activist in the UK. He presents examples and types of difficult working conditions, which sometimes lead to dysfunctional behaviors of volunteers, employees and managers of these organizations. The author describes the associated human resource (HR) management practices as well as the context in which they are used. It is worth noting the summary of the article, which is an attempt to answer questions about the specificity of charitable organizations, actors performing their roles, the essence of managing these organizations and the importance of estimating personnel risk. A team of Lithuanian researchers, including Irena Bakanauskiene, Rita Bendaravićiene and Inesa Daugintaite, refers to the important issue of happiness in the workplace and its multidimensionality. This topic is presented using the example of research results from teachers. Although all dimensions and attributes of employee happiness are important for the surveyed employees, reality does not meet employee expectations – especially in the area of motivation and remuneration systems. The importance of employee communication competences for the quality of services in the public and non-profit sectors is presented by Barbara Batko, who indicates some features of socially useful information, the development of which requires specific and universal competences for the purposes of handling the communication process. It is worth noting that these are well known and important components of human capital, that is, adequate knowledge, the ability to think critically or search for cause and effect relationships. Martina Grófová allows the audience to consider the possibility of implementing the principles of a circular economy in Slovakia. This is one of the possibilities of transition from serial production to production based on customer value, but with a more rational use of resources and reduction of the negative impact on the environment of manufactured products. However, it is worth paying attention to the need to build consumer awareness in this new reality and the responsibility of companies in this matter. Shaping customer relationships in e-commerce is a key corporate responsibility. Justyna Majchrzak-Lepczyk is able to highlight the purchasing process of e-customers and presents the results of her own research in this area. It is worth paying attention to the essence of employee competences and their ability to read the needs of e-buyers. A research team consisting of Zdenko Stacho, Katarína Stachová and Martina Grófová draws attention to the importance and openness of communication as an instrument of engaging human resources in order to maintain organizational competitiveness in the context of the speed of market changes and Introduction • 13 their nature. What is interesting is the informal communication and information technology (IT) support highlighted by the authors. Vladimir Šulc and Petr Jedinák take up the subject of the requirement to increase IT security of the information flow in the context of its integration with the legislative environment of the European Union, exemplified by the Czech Republic. The authors emphasize the increased vulnerability of IT systems to dangers in the network and the role of programmers in securing it. Based on two surveys and a series of interviews in the business service sector, Robert Marciniak presents Hungarian experience in the field of the impact of technological progress on the automation of service processes. The author discusses the resistance and expectations of employees towards the described trend. Evgeniy Borisovich Morgunov and Igor Borisovich Gurkov present the results of research on the production plants of foreign corporations operating in Russia. They show the features and processes of human resource management. The context of the described solutions and the indicated tensions between East and West are presented. We conclude with the consideration of Jiří Stýblo, who draws attention to the impact of digitization and automation on HR processes and the work environment which are changing the skill requirements of HR specialists and managers. This publication is intended for readers who want to expand their knowledge of the essence of building the capacity of individuals, teams and societies in a comprehensive and non-trivial way. At the same time, it encourages reflection and a holistic view of the phenomenon of human potential. I encourage you to read the aforementioned conference papers.

This book studies complex systems with elements represented by random variables. Its main goal is to study and compare uncertainty of algorithms of network structure identification with applications to market network analysis. For this, a mathematical model of random variable network is introduced, uncertainty of identification procedure is defined through a risk function, random variables networks with different measures of similarity (dependence) are discussed, and general statistical properties of identification algorithms are studied. The volume also introduces a new class of identification algorithms based on a new measure of similarity and prove its robustness in a large class of distributions, and presents applications to social networks, power transmission grids, telecommunication networks, stock market networks, and brain networks through a theoretical analysis that identifies network structures. Both researchers and graduate students in computer science, mathematics, and optimization will find the applications and techniques presented useful.

 

Recent Applications of Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Management is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the use of modern data analysis as well as quantitative methods for developing successful portfolio and risk management techniques. While highlighting topics such as credit scoring, investment strategies, and budgeting, this publication explores diverse models for achieving investment goals as well as improving upon traditional financial modelling methods. This book is ideally designed for researchers, financial analysts, executives, practitioners, policymakers, academicians, and students seeking current research on contemporary risk management strategies in the financial sector.

This book explores Russia’s efforts towards both adapting to and shaping a world in transformation. Russia has been largely marginalized in the post-Cold War era and has struggled to find its place in the world, which means that the chaotic changes in the world present Russia with both threats and opportunities. The rapid shift in the international distribution of power and emergence of a multipolar world disrupts the existing order, although it also enables Russia to diversify it partnerships and restore balance. Adapting to these changes involves restructuring its economy and evolving the foreign policy. The crises in liberalism, environmental degradation, and challenge to state sovereignty undermine political and economic stability while also widening Russia’s room for diplomatic maneuvering. This book analyzes how Russia interprets these developments and its ability to implement the appropriate responses. 

Forest ecosystems, their products and services play an important role in achieving ambitious climate change mitigation objectives at the same time requiring profound adaptation to climate change. Forest management schemes to support climate action have to be developed within their regional context but also have to be aligned with national or EU-level climate, forest and sustainability policies. The conference on “Managing forests in the 21st century” is the final conference of the FORMASAM, REFORCE and FOREXCLIM research projects. The conference bringstogether scientific experts on forest management from all over Europe facing very specific management challenges. The aim isto discuss and improve the understanding the role of forests and forest management in the context of climate change. The conference addresses climate change impacts, as well as needs for mitigation and adaptation especially with regard to the following scientific questions: 1. What are the impacts of climate extremes and disturbances? 2. What are the management challenges (and options) for resilient forests? 3. What can we do to increase the contribution of forest management to climate change mitigation?

A high level of corruption usually constrains economic development in emerging countries. However, anti-corruption campaigns often fail because the relevant policies need to be implemented by existing corrupt governments. This article studies the extent of bureaucrats’ heterogeneity in attitude to the problem of corruption. Due to the sensitivity of direct questions on corruption, we conduct the list experiment among public procurement officials in Russia. We show that female bureaucrats consider corruption an obstacle to public procurement development, and find no such evidence for male bureaucrats. This heterogeneity holds even at the high-level occupied positions. Although the negative attitude to corruption does not necessarily imply the anti-corruption activity by women, recognition of the problem seems to be a prerequisite for supporting an anti-corruption policy.

This paper set out to reassess the effects of economic and social determinants of the probability of formal vocational training in India. Applying the four-level cross-classified logistic model to the 2011–2012 National Sample Survey data, the paper identified the association between formal training and ‘good jobs’ in large urban electrified firms that offer permanent employment and regular monthly salary to their skilled occupation workers. Nevertheless, India remains a country of severe training poverty. This study confirms that the traditional mindset of the society does contribute to the training poverty; however, this impact is much limited to the household level and religious groups, such as Christians, which are systematically excluded from formal training as compared to Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists. In contrast, the lower castes and deprived social backgrounds do not affect, as predicted by previous studies. Moreover, it is shown that unskilled males from the rural area of India were less likely to receive formal training as compared to educated single women

The rapid and unplanned change to teaching and learning in the online format brought by COVID-19 has likely impacted many, if not all, aspects of university students’ lives worldwide. To contribute to the investigation of this change, this study focuses on the impact of the pandemic on student well-being, which has been found to be as important to student lifelong success as their academic achievement. Student well-being has been linked to their engagement and performance in curricular, co-curricular, and extracurricular activities, intrinsic motivation, satisfaction, meaning making, and mental health. The purpose of this study was to examine how student perceptions of their degree completion and future job prospects during the pandemic impact their well-being and what role university support plays in this relationship. We used the conservation of resources theory to frame our study and to develop five hypotheses that were later tested via structural equation modeling. Data were collected from 2707 university students in France, Germany, Russia, and UK via an online survey. The results showed that university support provided by instructors and administration plays a mediating role in the relationship between the perceived impact of COVID-19 on degree completion and future job prospects and levels of student well-being. Student well-being is decreased by their concerns for their degree completion but not by their concerns for future job prospects. In turn, concerns for future job prospects affect student well-being over time. These results suggest that in a “new normal”, universities could increase student well-being by making support to student studies a priority, especially for undergraduates. Also, universities should be aware of the students’ changing emotional responses to crisis and ensure visibility and accessibility of student support.

This paper is an empirical study that used econometric techniques to analyze the causal relationship between income inequality and financial disturbances in developed economies. The author used annual data from panels of OECD countries. In this study, income distribution is represented by the share of GDP that accrued to the top 10 percent earners, wage share of GDP, and disposable income Gini Coefficient in annual data series. The test included three channels, through which income inequality may affect the financial system. The results suggest that the effect of income inequality on the national financial stability is ambiguous, as the study concluded that this effect is radically different according to the channel tested. The study found that a rise in income inequality has a negative impact on public finance, but it has a positive effect on the private debt market, and on the external balance from a financial stability standpoint

Purpose – This paper details the actions of the Russian subsidiary of a multinational IT company, during the COVID–19 pandemic, aimed towards the exploration and exploitation of unexpected business opportunities. It depicts the strategic and tactical actions of the subsidiary and corporate initiatives during the pandemic, revealing tensions between the subsidiary and its corporate parent on implementation of each’s initiatives.

Design/Methodology/Approach – A case study is presented, based on action research, using internal documents from the company under consideration, participation in various working meetings, meetings with customers, and interviews with subsidiary management.

Findings – The strategic actions implemented by the subsidiary during the pandemic exemplify strategic agility, i.e. a set of activities carried out by a company that create value in a turbulent and unpredictable environment which in turn require systematic variations in specific processes, products and structures. Some of those variations included the unauthorized amendment of internal corporate rules, leading to tensions between the subsidiary and parent company. This case illustrates that such parent-subsidiary tensions are an inevitable element of achieving agility at the subsidiary level, especially during rapid and unpredictable changes in the business environment.

Research limitations/implications – This study presents the flow of events in one multinational corporation subsidiary. However, we speculate that similar situations (subsidiary actions exploiting emergent business opportunities and which have been restricted by rigid internal corporate rules and regulations and low receptivity from corporate headquarters) occurred in many multinational corporation subsidiaries, aiming to explore and exploit nascent business opportunities in local markets during the pandemic.

Practical implications – The study confirms the necessity for the review of the functioning of the corporate immune system of large multinational corporations to allow more subsidiary initiatives to flourish than before the pandemic.

Originality – The paper presents a case of strategic agility at subsidiary level during the pandemic. It also uncovers the black-boxing managerial decision-making processes in headquarters-subsidiary relations during the extreme turbulence of business environment.

This article addresses Kondratiev’s approach to the problems of economic dynamics, cycle and conjuncture in the context of a new methodological agenda which was formulated in the 1920’s in Europe and the USA by representatives of the “brilliant generation of economists,” mostly members of the econometric movement and its adherents among Russian economists. A distinguishing feature of this generation was that its representatives were striving to make economics an objective science penetrated by rigorous ways of thinking and based on a unification between the theoretical quantitative and the empirical quantitative approaches to the study of economic phenomena. This paper discusses Kondratiev’s project on the general theory of economic dynamics as an embodiment of that methodological agenda. It also highlights a free exchange of ideas between Kondratiev and economists from different countries as a breeding ground for the emergence of the project and a necessary condition for its implementation.

Purpose: The research aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on a company's behaviour concerning its human capital. Additionally, the difference in effect for companies with specific human capital is analysed.

Design/methodology/approach: The hypotheses are tested on a multi-industry sample of large public companies from five European countries, using panel data modelling. The index of Baker et al. (2016) is used to measure EPU.

Findings: In the case of increasing EPU on one standard deviation, companies tend to reduce their human capital by approximately 1.7%. Moreover, despite theoretical assumptions, the effect on companies with more specific human capital is twice stronger. The heterogeneity of effect across countries and industries is also present.

Practical implications: Regulators and governments should consciously introduce changes in relation to regulations and decrease the uncertainty of economic policy to stimulate corporate investments in human capital.

Originality/value: This is the first study that considers the mechanism of EPU and its influence on corporate human capital. The results suggest that concerns regarding economic policy cause companies to reduce human capital.

Following the rise of academic interest in the concept of social innovation, scholarly attention turned towards the concept of social innovation ecosystems (SIE). Despite multiple emerging viewpoints on the composition and spatial level of SIE, the empirical evidence of structures of SIE is limited. Using interviews with 35 informants and documentary analysis, this paper explores structures of SIEs in Manchester, Stockholm, Utrecht, Budapest, and Sofia, and identifies features of urban and national cultures, institutional relations, networks, and infrastructures that influences social innovation activity in selected areas. The research concludes that insufficient urban-level support forces social innovators to rely on non-urban factors in supporting social innovation.

The recently finalized Basel Framework continues allowing banks to use internal data and models to define risk estimates and use them for the capital adequacy ratio computation. World-wide there are above two thousand banks running the Basel internal models. However, there are countries that have none of such banks. For them there exists a dilemma. Namely, which transition path to adopt out of the two. The voluntarily one as in the EU or the mandatory one as in the US. Our objective is to take the investor perspective and benchmark those two modes. Thus, we wish to find whether there is a premium for any of them, or perhaps that they are equivalent. The novelty of our research is the robust estimate that investors prefer mandatory transition style to the voluntarily one. Such a preference is reflected in the rise of the mean return and decline in stock volatility for the transited banks in the US and right the opposite consequences in the EU. However, we should be cautious in interpreting our findings. Such a preference may not only be the premium for the breakage of the vicious cycle and the ultimate improvement in the banks’ risk-management systems and the overall financial stability. It may also hold true if and only if the mandatory transition for particular institutions is accompanied by a restriction for other banks in the region to transit. Our findings are of value primarily to the emerging economies like Argentine and Indonesia. 

This paper studies the indicators of public procurement efficiency as perceived by public buyers and suppliers and what barriers must be overcome for them to consider public procurement efficient. The analysis, based on an online survey of Russian procurers and suppliers in 2020, reveals that, despite the importance of fighting corruption and increasing competition, most procurers and suppliers consider the supply of high-quality goods and timely contract execution the most important criteria. The natural experiment with COVID-19 has mitigated the rigidity of the regulation problem but exacerbated the ambiguity problem. During the pandemic, public procurement contract execution worsened. To improve procurement efficiency, the regulator should clearly specify its requirements and consider the main participants’ interests.

During periods of financial turmoil, depositor behaviour is influenced by the economic information environment, which is largely formed by the media—at least for retail depositors. Therefore the severity of bank runs during financial crises, and their efficiency might be conditional on the volume of the bad news appearing in the media during a crisis. If the news flow remains unrestrained, then the probability of bank runs will increase due to the information sensitivity of depositors. Examining whether it is possible to reduce the severity of bank runs during a crisis by controlling the media, we use the panel data 28 countries from 2001 until 2016. We analyze the impact of media freedom on the growth rate of retail deposits: the major role in bank runs is usually played by unsophisticated individual depositors. Generally the results do not support the hypothesis that changes in the degree of media freedom directly influence behavioural strategies of retail depositors during financial crises. However information limitations may be an instrument to support the market discipline mechanisms: higher media freedom during crises seems to blur the information environment depositors make decisions in. Media restrictions could also prevent the financial literacy effect from dilution during financial crises, ensuring that market discipline is not further undermined.

We consider a market with two sellers, each having one unit of identical product, who compete for potential buyers with one-unit demand and a private valuation of this product. First, firms simultaneously post their prices. Then buyers observe these prices and choose a seller to submit a request for purchase depending on their private valuation of the product. This framework is between the directed search theory and the theory of competing mechanisms. We prove that the private information about the consumer’s willingness to pay produces an equilibrium price dispersion and endogenous consumer separation.

The paper discusses various aspects of digital environment and activity of enterprises from the Russian manufacturing sector in 2020 using the evidence from business tendency surveys. Based on aggregate sectoral and industrial assessments, such as the Digital Climate Index (DCI), the Digital Intensity Index (DII), the Digital Employment Index (DEI) and the Digital Vulnerability index (DVI), the dynamics of digital development during the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 is described. In general, according to the results obtained, we can conclude that, despite all the negative consequences and uncertainty associated, 2020 became a very significant point in terms of the digital transformation in manufacturing. Manufacturing businesses were both relatively resilient to the adverse business trends caused by the pandemic and were able to absorb the positive digital momentum generated by the pandemic.

In 2018, the official retirement age in Russia was abruptly raised from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women. The rise was motivated by the necessity to keep the deficit of the Russian Pension Fund, caused by population ageing and a shrinking labor force, under control. During years preceding this decision, the authorities had assured the population that no measures of this sort would be considered. The study assesses the initial causal effects of the 2018 increase in retirement age on the subjective well-being and economic sentiments of Russian individuals. Using the difference-in-differences and the synthetic control approaches, we show that people close to the retirement threshold and presumably most affected by the pension reform became less confident in the current and future economic situation in the country and in their personal future prospects and financial situation.

Confronted with COVID-19, high-income Gulf countries have done better than most of their middle- and low-income neighbours; Jordan and Morocco are also positive exceptions.

The most recent inflation data from the US and several other countries signal that consumer prices started to rise. The question remains open whether this is a temporary post-pandemic rebound or the beginning of a more persistent inflationary trend

This paper considers non-financial information disclosure impact on the cost of capital in the forms of cost of equity, cost of debt, and the weighted average cost of equity (WACC) in the BRICS countries. It was revealed that companies published non-financial report have lower cost of capital. Cost of debt, cost of equity, and WACC reduces after non-financial report publication. Six industries, where the cost of equity and debt capitals is lower for companies published non-financial reports, were determined: consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, information technology, healthcare, and materials. Moreover, according to the analysis, companies that issued non-financial reports have a lower cost of equity capital growth rate.

The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 18 March 2021.  

This paper presents a forecast combination approach for short-term assessment of economic growth in Russia. Our method significantly expands the existing domestic academic literature and embraces most advanced nowcasting techniques. The key feature of our approach is forecasting the growth rates of components GDP by expenditure using scenario indicators and a huge set of high-frequency predictors. The total number of combined models is nearly 500. Comparing our approach with popular benchmark models over the period from January 2003 to March 2020, we conclude that our method has higher accuracy of short-term GDP forecasting. The findings of this research may be useful for the development of monetary and communication policy in Russia.

In this study we analyze the convergence of GDP per capita from 2000 to2013 (current prices and euro exchange rates) for eight countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) of the European Union (CEE8). Some convergence indicators are also calculated for the CEE8 as a whole. The main purpose of this study is to shed some light on the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on regional convergence in advanced emerging countries, like the CEE8. The main result of random effects panel regressions for unconditional beta-convergence is that significant convergence is found for the whole period from 2000-2013, but not for sub-periods on either end of the sample, except for Hungary and Poland. This means that convergence in most CEECs is only significant if the GFC is included in the estimation period. The role of capital regions for the convergence process is an item for future research.

More than a half a century ago, Bela Balassa proposed his famous revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index which represents the intensity of exports and can be represented as the ratio of actual-to-expected trade. Today, the index is still applied in the majority of empirical comparative advantage studies, though many alternative indices that account for the demand dimension by capturing imports have been proposed, and theoretical considerations indicate that a proper RCA index should be based on net trade. However, these alternatives cannot be represented as the ratio of actual-to-expected trade. We develop a new net trade RCA (ntRCA) index which estimates the comparative advantage from net trade and can be presented as the ratio of actual-to-expected net trade. The index is interpreted as the relative ability of a country to gain from trade in a certain product.

The guarantee of an anonymous mechanism is the worst case welfare an agent can secure against unanimously adversarial others. How high can such a guarantee be, and what type of mechanism achieves it? We address the worst case design question in the n-person probabilistic voting/bargaining model with p deterministic outcomes. If n is no less than p the uniform lottery is the only maximal (unimprovable) guarantee; there are many more if p>n, in particular the ones inspired by the random dictator mechanism and by voting by veto. If n=2 the maximal set M(n,p) is a simple polytope where each vertex combines a round of vetoes with one of random dictatorship. For p>n>2, we show that the dual veto and random dictator guarantees, together with the uniform one, are the building blocks of 2 to the power d simplices of dimension d in M(n,p), where d is the quotient of p-1 by n. Their vertices are guarantees easy to interpret and implement. The set M(n,p) may contain other guarantees as well; what we can say in full generality is that it is a finite union of polytopes, all sharing the uniform guarantee.

The paper discusses interregional differentiation in the distribution of electronic purchases among the population in Russia. The aim of the work is to find out what factors are primarily responsible for interregional gaps in the level of online channel use in consumer retail purchases. The study focuses on regional drivers and barriers for the spread of e-commerce. The results show that shares of users of stationary computers (desktops), users of smartphones, and gross regional product per capita are the main positive factors, and lack of trust in e-commerce channels is the main obstacle, while Internet access, age structure, educational level, urbanization, aggregated regional preferences for personal purchases and physical availability of retail trade outlets were found to be irrelevant.

Drawing on foundational arguments from the literature on emerging market institutional strategies, and employing a realist historical analysis, we present a retrospective on the Russian automotive industry. We begin by tracing the origins of the sector and synthesizing salient post World War II developments. We then recount the subsequent expansionary decade of the 1960s, followed by the stagnation of the late 1980s, culminating in the eventual collapse of socialism and the breakup of the USSR. Attracted by both the rapid growth in the local market, and the preferential tax rates that accompanied investments, we then document the swift expansion of production facilities in Russia by major global manufacturers in the 2000s. We show how eventually an ensuing sharp halt in local market growth, and an accompanying rise in spare production capacity, saw most manufacturers pursue institutional strategies aimed at obtaining new tax concessions and leveraging intra-industry cooperation, rather than divesting their recently established production facilities. Overall, our retrospective, in particular, calls attention to how global manufacturers were able not only to acquire and rejuvenate existing production facilities or install new greenfield ones, but also to exercise their agency in shaping the broader policy framework and in fashioning new sectoral institutions designed to buttress and sustain the industry.

The article analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on the expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of business activity of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for the period 1998-2020. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate the predictive value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, including in crisis periods. The authors calculate a composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combines quarterly information for the analysed period on 18 indicators of surveys with a sample of about 24,000 organizations of all size in basic kinds of economic activity, and 5,000 consumers in all Russian regions. The authors prove the possibility of using a vector autoregression model (VAR) with dummy variables to measure the relationship between GDP growth and ESI time series. Scenario estimates of GDP growth until the end of 2021 are based on the expected impulses in the ESI dynamics at the end of 2020, which differ in the amplitude and duration of their impact on economic growth, primarily due to the coronavirus effect. According to the results, under all possible scenarios for the development of business trends, national economic growth can exceed the level of the end of 2019, starting from the third quarter of 2021.

Commuting is linked to fertility through demographic, social, and economic mechanisms. Average differences in first-birth rates of young, working women are estimated by a bivariate model with endogenous commuting. Empirical evidence based on administrative data (Sweden) reveals that commuting women have a lower probability of a first birth between 21-28 years of age and a higher probability between 29-32 years. Therefore, commuting women likely postpone their first child. Additional direct and spillover effects of commuting on fertility appear in income cross-municipal flows, diffusion of fertility norms across space, and changes in gender structure of the population of fertile age. A positive effect on relative income and social norms and a negative sex ratio effect are found significant both for commuting women and those who work in the municipality of their residence. Marginal effects for commuters are greater in magnitude.