This book examines how Russia, the world’s most complicated country, is governed. As it resumes its place at the centre of global affairs, the book explores Russia’s overarching strategies, and how it organizes itself (or not) in policy areas ranging from foreign policy and national security to health care, education, immigration, science, sport, agriculture, the environment and criminal justice. The book also discusses the structures and institutions on which Russia relies in order to deliver its goals in these areas of national life, as well as what’s to be done, in policy terms, to improve the country’s performance in its first post-Soviet century. Edited by Irvin Studin, the book includes contributions from a tremendous list of Russia’s leading thinkers and specialists, including Alexei Kudrin, Vladimir Mau, Alexander Auzan, Simon Kordonsky, Fyodor Lukyanov, Natalia Zubarevich and Andrey Melville.

The authors proposed and mathematically described model of a new type of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrence (the FPU auto recurrence) and hypothesized an adequate description of the heart's electrical dynamics within the observed phenomenon. The dynamics of the FPU auto recurrence making appropriate electrical dynamics of the normal functioning of the heart in the form of an electrocardiogram (ECG) was obtained by a computer model study. The model solutions in the form of the FPU auto recurrence – ECG Fourier spectrum were evaluated for resistance to external disturbances in the form of random effects, as well as periodic perturbation at a frequency close to the heart beating rate of about 1 Hz. In addition, in order to simulate the dynamics of myocardial infarction model, studied the effect of the surface area of the myocardium on the stability and shape of the auto recurrence – ECG spectrum. It has been found that the intense external disturbing periodic impacts at a frequency of about 1 Hz lead to a sharp disturbance spectrum shape FPU auto recurrence – ECG structure. In addition, the decrease in the surface of the myocardium by 50% in the model led to the destruction of structures of the auto recurrence – ECG, which corresponds to the state of atrial myocardium. Research models have revealed a hypothetical basis of coronary heart disease in the form of increasing the energy of high-frequency harmonics spectrum of the auto recurrence by reducing the energy of low-frequency harmonic spectrum of the auto recurrence, which ultimately leads to a sharp decrease in myocardial contractility. In order to test the hypothesis has been studied more than 20,000 ECGs both healthy people and patients with cardiovascular disease. As a result of these studies, it was found that the dynamics of the electrical activity of normal functioning of the heart can be interpreted by the display of the detected by authors the FPU auto recurrence, and coronary heart disease is a violation of the energy ratio between the low and high frequency harmonics of the FPU auto recurrence Fourier spectrum equal to the ECG spectrum. Thus, the hypothesis has been confirmed.

The materials of The International Scientific – Practical Conference is presented below. The Conference reflects the modern state of innovation in education, science, industry and social-economic sphere, from the standpoint of introducing new information technologies.

It is interesting for a wide range of researchers, teachers, graduate students and professionals in the field of innovation and information technologies.

Adequate assessment of individual functional motor potentials is important for developing appropriate rehabilitation strategies in ischemic stroke [1]. Microstructural changes in corticospinal tract (CST) and corpus callosum (CC) were repeatedly correlated to post-stroke outcome [2, 3]. However, relationship between them and functional recovery remains unclear. Here we investigated relationship between integrity of CST and CC assessed with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and brain functional state assessed with navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS) in chronic ischemic supratentorial stroke.

The present volume is the fourth issue of the Yearbook series entitled ‘Evolution’. The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of evolution and Big History are covered in the articles of the present Yearbook. Several articles also present the forecasts about future development.

The main objective of our Yearbook as well as of the previous issues is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research in which the scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using the common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. At the same time for the formation of such an integrated field one should use all available opportunities: theories, laws and methods. In the present volume, a number of such approaches are used.

The volume consists of four sections: Universal Evolutionary Principles; Biosocial Evolution, Ecological Aspects, and Consciousness; Projects for the Future; In Memoriam.

This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us!

The book presents the most important aspects of safe digital image workflows, starting from the basic practical implications and gradually uncovering the underlying concepts and algorithms. With an easy-to-follow, down-to-earth presentation style, the text helps you to optimize your diagnostic imaging projects and connect the dots of medical informatics.​

In the context of global efforts to move towards universal coverage in health systems, this report reviews health financing reforms in the Republic of Moldova and looks in particular at how the population´s access to health services has been affected. In 2004, as has been widely documented elsewhere, wholesale reforms were made to the way in which government funds were used to fund health services, shifting the system overnight from a highly fragmented and inflexible one, to one in which funds for the health sector were pooled nationally, allowing improved risk-sharing as a result of greater flexibility to allocate funds in line with health needs. A new source of funding in the form of a payroll tax for health was also introduced directly leading to a growth in total levels of government health spending. A second phase of reforms starting in 2009 addressed the issue of gaps in population coverage under mandatory health insurance, with legislative measures taken to ensure that all citizens of Moldova had access to primary health care, and to ensure that the poor receive subsidized health insurance. Fiscal constraints have limited the full implementation of these reforms however. Moldova has shown that it is prepared to tackle difficult policy issues head on and has articulated clear goals for the sector. In particular, the Roadmap “Accelerating Reforms: addressing the needs of the health area through investment policies” approved on 1 March 2012, lays a clear agenda for the next phase or priority reforms focusing on principally on service delivery reorganization but also on health financing. This is the correct focus given that progress on a number of priority indicators such as equity in access to services and financial protection has been limited in recent years. This report summarizes the main impact of health financing reforms to date and agrees with the Roadmap about the major challenges for the coming decade, in particular the need to address inefficiencies in service delivery, but also to ensure that the close link between guaranteed benefits and available funding is maintained in future policy decisions.

A novel potent analog of the branched tail oxyquinoline group of hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors, neuradapt, has been studied in two treatment regimes in an in vitro hypoxia model on murine primary hippocampal cultures. Neuradapt activates the expression of HIF1 and HIF2 target genes and shows no toxicity up to 20 μM, which is more than an order of magnitude higher than its biologically active concentration. Cell viability, functional activity, and network connectivity between the elements of neuronal networks have been studied using a pairwise correlation analysis of the intracellular calcium fluctuations in the individual cells. An immediate treatment with 1 μM and 15 μM neuradapt right at the onset of hypoxia not only protects from the death, but also maintains the spontaneous calcium activity in nervous cells at the level of the intact cultures. A similar neuroprotective effect in the post-treatment scenario is observed for 15 μM, but not for 1 μM neuradapt. Network connectivity is better preserved with immediate treatment using 1 μM neuradapt than with 15 μM, which is still beneficial. Post-treatment with neuradapt did not restore the network connectivity despite the observation that neuradapt significantly increased cell viability at 1 μM and functional activity at 15 μM. The preservation of cell viability and functional activity makes neuradapt promising for further studies in a post-treatment scenario, since it can be combined with other drugs and treatments restoring the network connectivity of functionally competent cells.

Currently, the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) [HBV-HCC] relies on blunt tools that are unable to offer effective therapy for later stage pathogenesis. The potential of miRNA to treat HBV-HCC offer a more targeted approach to managing this lethal carcinoma; however, the complexity of miRNA as an ancillary regulator of the immune system remains poorly understood. This review examines the overlapping roles of HBx-dysregulated miRNA in HBV-HCC and immune pathways and seeks to demonstrate that specific miRNA response in immune cells is not independent of their expression in hepatocytes. This interplay between the two pathways may provide us with the possibility of using candidate miRNA to manipulate this interaction as a potential therapeutic option

Altered functional connectivity of the amygdala has been observed in a resting state immediately after fear learning, even one day after aversive exposure. The persistence of increased resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) of the amygdala has been a critical finding in patients with stress and anxiety disorders. However, longitudinal changes in amygdala rsFC have rarely been explored in healthy participants. To address this issue, we studied the rsFC of the amygdala in two groups of healthy volunteers. The control group participated in three fMRI scanning sessions of their resting state at the first visit, one day, and one week later. The experimental group participated in three fMRI sessions on the first day: a resting state before fear conditioning, a fear extinction session, and a resting state immediately after fear extinction. Furthermore, this group experienced scanning after one day and week. The fear-conditioning paradigm consisted of visual stimuli with a distinct rate of partial reinforcement by electric shock. During the extinction, we presented the same stimuli in another sequence without aversive pairing. In the control group, rsFC maps were statistically similar between sessions for the left and right amygdala. However, in the experimental group, the increased rsFC mainly of the left amygdala was observed after extinction, one day, and one week. The between-group comparison also demonstrated an increase in the left amygdala rsFC in the experimental group. Our results indicate that functional connections of the left amygdala influenced by fear learning may persist for several hours and days in the human brain.

Long-duration spaceflight causes widespread physiological changes, although its effect on brain structure remains poorly understood. In this work, we acquired diffusion magnetic resonance imaging to investigate alterations of white matter (WM), gray matter (GM), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) compositions in each voxel, before, shortly after, and 7 months after long-duration spaceflight. We found increased WM in the cerebellum after spaceflight, providing the first clear evidence of sensorimotor neuroplasticity. At the region of interest level, this increase persisted 7 months after return to Earth. We also observe a widespread redistribution of CSF, with concomitant changes in the voxel fractions of adjacent GM. We show that these GM changes are the result of morphological changes rather than net tissue loss, which remained unclear from previous studies. Our study provides evidence of spaceflight-induced neuroplasticity to adapt motor strategies in space and evidence of fluid shift– induced mechanical changes in the brain.

Objective:

Goldberg, the author of the “novelty-routinization” framework, suggested a new pair of cognitive styles for agent-centered decision-making (DM), context-dependency/independency (CD/CI), quantified by the Cognitive Bias Task (CBT) and supposedly reflecting functional brain hemispheric specialization. To date, there are only three lesion and activation neuroimaging studies on the CBT with the largest sample of 12 participants. The present study is the first to analyze whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), involved in contextual agent-centered DM.

Method:

We compared whole-brain resting-state FC of the DLPFC between CD (n = 24) and CI (n = 22) healthy participants. Additionally, we investigated associations between CD/CI and different aspects of executive functions.

Results:

CD participants had stronger positive FC of the DLPFC with motor and visual regions; FC of the left DLPFC was more extensive. CI participants had stronger positive FC of the left DLPFC with right prefrontal and parietal-occipital areas and of the left and right DLPFC with ipsilateral cerebellar hemispheres. No sex differences were found. CD/CI had nonlinear associations with working memory.

Conclusions:

The findings suggest that CD and CI are associated with different patterns of DLPFC FC. While CD is associated with FC between DLPFC and areas presumably involved in storing representations of current situation, CI is more likely to be associated with FC between DLPFC and right-lateralized associative regions, probably involved in the inhibition of the CD response and switching from processing of incoming perceptual information to creation of original response strategies.

Despite the increasing popularity of neurofeedback, its mechanisms of action are still poorly understood. This study aims to describe the processes underlying implicit electroencephalographic neurofeedback. Fifty-two healthy volunteers were randomly assigned to a single session of infra-low frequency neurofeedback or sham neurofeedback, with electrodes over the right middle temporal gyrus and the right inferior parietal lobule. They observed a moving rocket, the speed of which was modulated by the waveform derived from a band-limited infra-low frequency filter. Immediately before and after the session, the participants underwent a resting-state fMRI. Network-based statistical analysis was applied, comparing post- vs. pre-session and real vs. sham neurofeedback conditions. As a result, two phenomena were observed. First, we described a brain circuit related to the implicit neurofeedback process itself, consisting of the lateral occipital cortex, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, left orbitofrontal cortex, right ventral striatum, and bilateral dorsal striatum. Second, we found increased connectivity between key regions of the salience, language, and visual networks, which is indicative of integration in sensory processing. Thus, it appears that a single session of implicit infra-low frequency electroencephalographic neurofeedback leads to significant changes in intrinsic brain connectivity.

Paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) allows investigating inhibitory and excitatory interactions in the human motor cortex noninvasively. Short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI) and facilitation (SICF) are used to measure cortico–cortical excitability in patients with, e.g., stroke, dystonia, and Parkinson’s disease. However, the role of the induced electric field (E-field) orientation remains partly unclear. Posterior–anterior (PA)-oriented E-field elicits motor evoked potentials (MEPs) with the lowest stimulus intensities due to the recruitment of corticospinal neurons, indirectly via excitatory synaptic inputs to corticospinal axons (indirect (I-) waves). Stimulation in the lateral–medial (LM) orientation directly activates corticospinal axons, which leads to the generation of both direct (D-) and I-waves. Conditioning stimulus (CS) with an intensity between 50% and 90% of resting motor threshold (RMT) induces activation of GABAA inhibitory mechanisms observed as the SICI (inhibitory) effect on MEP amplitude. In contrast, if the CS intensity is above RMT, the SICF (excitatory) phenomenon can be present due to the superposition of D- and I-waves. Our aim was to investigate the dependence of inhibitory and facilitatory mechanisms on the orientation of the induced E-field of CS and TS. We developed a multi-locus TMS (mTMS) transducer, which allowed us to control the E-field orientation independently for CS and TS at a millisecond inter-pair interval (IPI). Eight healthy subjects (five males; mean age 29, range 21–35 years) participated in the study. mTMS was applied to the hotspot of the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscle in the left primary motor cortex. The stimulus intensities were based on the individual RMT of APB for PA and LM orientations. TS and single pulses were administered at 110% RMT. Twenty single pulses were applied for each TS orientation and for each of the 32 paired-pulse conditions. CS and TS stimuli were applied in every combination of the PA and LM orientations with four CS intensities (50, 70, 90, and 110% RMT) and two IPIs (1.5 and 2.7 ms) in a random order. Interaction between CS orientation, IPI, and CS intensity significantly affected TS MEP amplitudes. We observed no statistically significant difference between the responses induced by PA- and LM-oriented TS. CS at 70% RMT for SICI and at 110% RMT for SICF induced similar effects regardless of the TS orientation. We established that LM-oriented CS at 90% RMT produced a greater inhibition than stimuli at the same intensity in the PA orientation. Our results emphasize the minimal influence of the CS E-field dorientation on the test pulse. Additionally, we demonstrate the pivotal role of the stimulus intensity for any CS orientation. SICI and SICF evoked using perpendicular CS and TS directions indicate that we stimulated overlapping neuronal populations with both pulses.

Rigid amphipathic fusion inhibitors are potent broad-spectrum antivirals based on the perylene scaffold, usually decorated with a hydrophylic group linked via ethynyl or triazole. We have sequentially simplified these structures by removing sugar moiety, then converting uridine to aniline, then moving to perylenylthiophenecarboxilic acids and to perylenylcarboxylic acid. All these polyaromatic compounds, as well as antibiotic heliomycin, still showed pronounced activity against tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) with limited toxicity in porcine embryo kidney (PEK) cell line. 5-(Perylen-3-yl)-2-thiophenecarboxylic acid (5a) showed the highest antiviral activity with 50% effective concentration of approx. 1.6 nM.

Background and Purpose Despite the continuing efforts in multimodal assessment of the motor system after stroke, conclusive findings on the complementarity of functional and structural metrics of the corticospinal tract (CST) integrity and the role of the contralesional hemisphere are still missing. The aim of this work was to find the best combination of the motor system parameters, allowing classification of patients into three predefined groups of upper limb motor recovery. Methods 35 chronic ischemic stroke patients (47 [26–66] y.o., 29 [6–58] months post-stroke) with only supratentorial lesion and unilateral upper extremity weakness were enrolled. Patients were divided into three groups depending on the upper limb motor recovery. Non-parametric statistical tests and regression analysis were used to investigate the relationships among structural and functional motor system parameters, probed by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). In addition, stratification rules were tested, using a decision tree classifier to identify parameters explaining motor recovery. Results Fractional anisotropy (FA) ratio in the internal capsule (IC) and absence/presence of motor evoked potentials (MEPs), were equally discriminative of the worst motor outcome group (96% accuracy). MEP presence diverged for two investigated hand muscles. Concurrently, for the three recovery groups’ classification, the best parameter combination was: IC FA ratio and Fréchet distance between the contralesional and ipsilesional CST FA profiles (91% accuracy). No other metrics had any additional value for patients’ classification. Conclusions This study demonstrates that IC FA ratio and MEPs absence are equally important markers for poor recovery. Importantly, we found that MEPs should be controlled in more than one hand muscle. Finally, we show that better separation between different motor recovery groups may be achieved when considering the whole CST FA profile.

Human genetic variability is thought to account for a substantial fraction of individual biochemical characteristics — in biomedical sense, of individual drug response. However, only a handful of human genetic variants have been linked to medication outcomes. Here, we combine data on drug-protein interactions and human genome sequences to assess the impact of human variation on their binding affinity. Using data from the complexes of FDA-drugs and drug-like compounds, we predict SNPs substantially affecting the protein-ligand binding affinities. We estimate that an average individual carries ~6 SNPs affecting ~5 different FDA-approved drugs from among all of the approved compounds. SNPs affecting drug-protein binding affinity have low frequency in the population indicating that the genetic component for many ADEs may be highly personalized with each individual carrying a unique set of relevant SNPs. The reduction of ADEs, therefore, may primarily rely on the application of computational genome analysis in the clinic rather than the experimental study of common SNPs.

The paper examines the changes in the physician’s motivation at work during the period of reforms the salary system started since 2008. These reforms have included a shift from fixed salary system to pay for performance remuneration as well as sufficient increase of salary. The data of six surveys of health workers implemented in 2007-2016 were used to reveal the hierarchy of physician’s motives at work and to track their changes during the period of time under consideration. The changes were minor, and the directions of these changes were rather opposite to the expected strengthening of financial motivation at work: the importance of the motive of earning money has moved from the first place. The share of doctors willing to work more and better on the condition of linking salary with labor contribution did not increase. In contrast, almost two-thirds of physicians believe that they are working on a high level of quality and performance. The majority of physicians desire to increase not a stimulating part of the salary but a base, fixed one. Doctors who receive bonuses for the intensity, quality and performance, and who have a higher amount of salary wish to see the share of fixed part of salary higher than it is now available. This is a clear indication of orientation of this professional to strengthening the protective function of the salary rather than to use increased opportunities for earning money.

The paper explores primary health care models in Russia and in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Starting with the similar model, they have taken totally different ways of primary health care transformation, including the role of general practitioner, multispecialty polyclinics and private sector. The comparison of this diversity, based on the conceptual framework of Primary Health Care Activity Monitor in Europe, demonstrated that the scores of primary care in Russia are relatively lower, particularly in the dimensions of accessibility, comprehensiveness, continuity and coordination of care. The score of the selected efficiency indicators is also relatively low. The major reasons for this are discussed, including the lack of strategic vision on the role of primary care, an excessive specialization of primary care and the delay with a shift to a general practitioner model. A debatable issue of primary care extended composition (the involvement of a growing number of specialists) is also addressed. The conceptual presumption that an extended composition presents new opportunities for more integrated care and better performance has not been supported by the evidence. Big multispecialty policlinics in Russia don’t demonstrate advantages over solo and group GP practices that dominate in CEE countries. The potential of polyclinics is not used because of the lack of specific activities for integration. It is argued that new specialists in the practices can strengthen primary care only when they support generalists rather than replace them. The lesson learnt from CEE countries is that substantial changes are needed to overcome the lagging status of primary care in Russia, including overcoming the excessive specialization of primary care, the replacement of district physicians by general practitioners, developing the forms of independent practices operating in parallel with polyclinics and competing with them.

Having one of the highest physician-population ratios in the world, Russia – paradoxically – also faces shortages of physicians. This paper explores the reasons for this paradox through examining the structural characteristics of the Russian health workforce and its development. In comparing Russia with mainstream European countries and in particular the ‘new” EU countries we argue that the shortage of physicians is determined mostly by the prevailing model of health workforce development with its enduring emphasis on quantitative rather than structural indicators. First, the traditional perception of physicians as inexpensive health resources determines the long-term growth of their jobs – irrespective of the new opportunities for substitution and other structural innovations. Second, there is a persistent distortion in the composition of physician supply, of which the most important is the very low share and narrow remit of primary health care providers in comparison to European standards. Third, the international trends in the division of labor between physicians, medical nurses and allied health personnel are not followed in Russia with the result of an inevitable overburden of physicians, the reproduction of a large supply of physicians, while also the paradoxical shortage. Fourth, the system of professional development of physicians does not match international standards. Although with a substantial delay, Russia has now started transition to a workforce model focused on structural characteristics of human resources and so, in the final part of the paper, these new initiatives of the Government are critically assessed.

Background: With the rapid growth of online social network sites (SNS), the issue of health-related online communities and its social and behavioral implications have become increasingly important for public health and healthcare. Unfortunately, online communities often become vehicles for promotion of pernicious misinformation, for example, alleged harm of vaccination or that HIV-virus is a myth (AIDS-denialism). This study seeks to explore the social structure and participants' behavior of the AIDS-denialists online community to identify and estimate the those who potentially are most susceptible to AIDS-denialists arguments  - “the risk group” in terms of becoming AIDS-denialists. Methods: Social network analysis was used for examining the most numerous AIDS-denialist community in the most popular Russian SNA “VKontakte”, which numbered 13000 – 15 000 members during the various stage of analysis. Qualitative content analysis was also used for collecting relevant for this study members’ attributes, such as HIV status and the extent of belief in AIDS-denialists arguments. Two datasets were collected to analyze friendship  relations between community members and their communication relations. Results: Using social network analysis combined with content-analysis we have identified the core of online community - cohesive and dedicated AIDS-denialists, and the risk group, which is not equal in composition to all peripheral members appeared in the online group. The risk group is the circle of users who engage with core members through online communication and may be more susceptible the AIDS-denialist propaganda. Analysis allowed to significantly reduce the target audience for possible intervention campaign and simultaneously increase the accuracy of user selection into the risk group (1369 users from the risk group is more than 10 times less than whole online group population counting over 15,000 users). Thus, online information interventions should be aimed at this risk group audience in the first place to prevent their adoption of AIDS-denialism beliefs, further spread of AIDS-denialism, and pernicious health consequences associated with being an HIV-positive AIDS-denialist. Conclusion: More research on influence of AIDS-denialism on HIV-positive online group members is needed. Of particular interest are longitudinal or case control studies that could detect the size of effect of AIDS-denialist propaganda that is communicated from hard-core denialists to the risk group, different factors associated with higher or lower susceptibility to AIDS-denialist views, and real health behavior change that occurs with becoming an AIDS-denialist.

The article is based on the preliminary results of author’s current study of the implementation of electronic health records in one of Russian outpatient clinics. Interviews with doctors, developers, managers of the State Department of Healthcare, IT-specialists, and clinic’s head, as well as observations of doctors’ everyday work, show that one of the key problems in the transition from paper to electronic record-keeping is how new information system transforms (or fails to transform) doctors’ routine, habitual activities. The article suggests that the widespread view of habitual action as an action in accordance with a preliminary scheme — a view that forms a basis for the majority of medical information systems — does not describe the actual structure of healthcare activities. The analysis of how doctors perceive and use electronic health records in their daily practice demonstrates that a situational approach to routine actions is more adequate. For example, the use of so-called “templates” that are created by doctors within the electronic health records cannot be understood without reference to the situational context of professional activities. Doctors, creating and using various “templates,” do this in such ways that allow them to make these health records circumstantially understandable. The view of routine activities as situated, concerted achievements not only proves the possibility of a new approach to the description of habitual actions’ role and place in the structure of social action, but can be important for the design and evaluation of professional information systems.

The article focuses on four major assumptions that underlie the alternative conceptualization of public recreation marketing. It explains (1) the redistribution system within recreation resources are allocated; (2) the organizational structure of recreation agencies; (3) the ways in which public recreation agencies interact with local governments and citizens; and (4) the code of ethics and its influence on the behavior of recreation professionals. Finally, the article attempts to integrate these assumptions into an alternative definition of public recreation marketing that is termed “administered marketing.”

This paper presents a method and computational technology for forecasting ambulance trips. We used statistical information about the number of the trips in 2009-2013, the meteorological archive, and the corresponding archive of the meteorological forecasts for the same period. We take into account social and meteorological predictors simultaneously. The method may be used operatively for planning in the ambulance service. It may be applied for all trips and for specific subgroups of diseases. The method and the technology may be applied for any megalopolis if the corresponding medical and meteorological information is available.

The paper considers the changes in major proximate determinants of fertility in Russia within the framework of demographic transition theory and Bongaarts approach to fertility analysis. After World War II Russian fertility became fully controlled process. The complex interplay of abortion and contraception during the Soviet period resulted in a very high abortion level. Russian government has almost never supported and promoted family planning as alternative to abortion. However couple's preferences of small offspring appeared more powerful than the will of authorities. Current trends show that albeit lack of governmental support the society itself is evolving towards more humanistic and effective birth control. Estimates made upon recent surveys' data confirm the validity of official statistics and thus the reality of favorable trend of abortion decline.