The paper provides findings of the research work and scientific discussions under the “Global Sustainability Strategy Forum” (GSSF) that aims to develop evidence-informed judgments on challenges and solutions. It views attaining sustainability as a set of closely-coupled societal and environmental challenges and opportunities that require integration of multiple disciplines, new research methods, and new knowledge sources with sensitivity to regional and cultural diversities. The project is designed to produce innovative insights and strategies to support effective governance of transitions to sustainability of our complex global social-ecological system within its inherent resource limitations, and to develop sustainable lifestyles that are practical and appealing in the different regions and cultures of the world.
The global climate change is one of the most dangerous threats to human society in the 21st Century. The dramatic losses have already been observed, and the risks are rising over time. CEECCA region experiences many negative impacts of global warming, which is faster and stronger than the world average. Numerous adaptation and resilience measures are required to protect people, but regional governments often underestimate and ignore the social implications of climate policies.This paper explores what are the priority challenges for CEECCA countries and how to address them effectively.
This book examines how Russia, the world’s most complicated country, is governed. As it resumes its place at the centre of global affairs, the book explores Russia’s overarching strategies, and how it organizes itself (or not) in policy areas ranging from foreign policy and national security to health care, education, immigration, science, sport, agriculture, the environment and criminal justice. The book also discusses the structures and institutions on which Russia relies in order to deliver its goals in these areas of national life, as well as what’s to be done, in policy terms, to improve the country’s performance in its first post-Soviet century. Edited by Irvin Studin, the book includes contributions from a tremendous list of Russia’s leading thinkers and specialists, including Alexei Kudrin, Vladimir Mau, Alexander Auzan, Simon Kordonsky, Fyodor Lukyanov, Natalia Zubarevich and Andrey Melville.
Global warming is recognized as one of the most urgent challenges for human society in the 21st century. The international community has agreed to undertake necessary actions to prevent dangerous anthropogenic impacts on the climatic system. Based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), the UNFCCC Parties adopted the Paris Agreement aimed at limiting the global mean surface temperature rise by “well below 2 degrees Celsius”. Such an ambitious “climatic” target requires unprecedented efforts to reduce carbon emissions to almost zero worldwide this century. Moreover, in order to keep the warming below 1.5°C, the global total emissions must be reduced by 50% or more by 2050 (compared to current levels) and reach net-zero levels afterwards. In practical terms, it means that most of the countries should deeply decarbonize their economies, energy systems, industries, transport, buildings, products and services, while continuing growth of GDP and the standard of living of the population. The developed countries agreed to take the lead in climate change mitigation under the UNFCCC; however, the largest developing countries and emerging economies have started playing substantial roles in carbon emissions nowadays. In this decade, China became the world No.1 CO2 emitter overcoming the United States. The Northeast Asian (NEA) region, including China, Japan, Mongolia, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation, is responsible for annual emissions of over 12.4 billion tonnes of CO2 or approximately 40% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. These countries are huge contributors to global warming today and may increase their share further. The traditional way of combusting the huge fossil fuels reserves (coal, gas, and oil) available in the Northeast Asian region would emit greenhouse gases substantially exceeding the amounts that would warm the planet by 2°C. On the other hand, plentiful sources of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, tidal, and biomass, etc.) in combination with advanced technologies, investments, and land infrastructure developments can transform the Northeast Asian countries into decarbonized, climate- and environment-friendly economies with sustainable growth and development, fully consistent with the goals and commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement. Delays with the deep decarbonization of the Northeast Asian economies will impose higher risks for communities and life-supporting ecosystems, more losses and stranded assets for businesses, and slower technological progress worldwide. The analysis of challenges and opportunities in deep decarbonization pathways for the Northeast Asian region as a whole is presented in this publication. We raise many questions, and yet have not so many answers. By publishing this text, we want to invite all interested and concerned parties to start thinking about and debating these new, but very up-to-date issues of deep transformation of our economies, industries, consumer behavior, and ways of living in climate-neutral patterns, in order that we can urgently meet the need to save our planet and keep it in good shape for the generations to come.
The development and use of Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has been a contentios subject for the last three decades. while there has been a number of social science analysis of the issues, this is the first book to assess the role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the debate at such wide geographic scale. The various posiotions, for and against GMOs, particularly with regards to trangenic crops, articulated by NGOs in the debate are dissected, classified and juxtaposed to corresponding campaigns. these are discussed in the context of paradigms, including nature fundamentalism and the organic movement, post-colonialism, food sovereignty, anti-globalism, sustainability and feminism. This book also analyses how NGOs interprete the debate and the persuasive communication tactics.
The Paris Climate Agreement established a new target of combating global warming "well below 2 degrees Celsius". This goal will lead to the transformation and deep decarbonization of world economy aiming at nearly zero carbon emissions soon after 2050. The Northeastern Asian countries (responsible for 40% of global CO2 emissions) have all rechnological, resource and ivnestment potential for decarbonization both domestically and internationally, and can show leadership in this efforts on global scale.
The book provides the first in-depth, multidisciplinary study of reurbanization in Russia's Arctic regions, with a specific focus on new mobility patterns, and the resulting birth of new urban Arctic identities in which newcomers and labor migrants form a rising part. It is an invaluable reference for all those interested in current trends in circumpolar regions, showing how the Arctic is becoming more diverse culturally, but also more integrated into globalized trends in terms of economic development, urban sustainability, and migration.
The piblication provides the key lessons learnt from DDPP project experience on designing long-term pathways of low carbon development for 16 world largest economies. The Paris Climate Agreement requires countries to build their concrete vision of the national low-emission transition, consistent with global climate goals that would widely shared by domestic stakeholders and explicitly articulated with domestic socio-economic priorities. We analyze the experience of USA, France, Germany, Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, UK, Mexico, Canada, Italy, Brazil in projecting the deep decarbonization scenarios for their economies by 2050.
The book presents a brief summary of the scientific research on deep decarbonization of 16 largest economies by 2050.
This report examines the changes happening in Russia ever since the issue of global warming was introduced on the global agenda. Only today, after the planet has experienced a variety of catastrophic natural disasters, have world leaders and decision makers grown more aware of the urgency of the problem. In Russia, where climate changes have been more significant than globally on average, the government has increased its objectives in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and put forward a number of initiatives and green policy measures to achieve more sustainability in the long term. Russia’s target for greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 is set at 70-75 percent of the base level of 1990, according to the new action plan adopted by the Kremlin. Other states also recognize the problem but their positions differ in the way the issue should be solved. India, China, the U.S. and Brazil, all of which are important players analyzed in the report, find it hard to reach common ground in reaching a globally binding agreement. Whether this will be done ultimately depends on the outcome of the Paris climate change conference. The report also considers the state of the Russian climate change movement from the experience of NGO activities in Russia, provides an overview of the development of the Russian green energy sector with specific success stories and analyzes the prospects of renewable energy development in different regions of the country.
This supplementary material contains case studies presenting specific aspects of the DDPP country pathways. They illustrate and complement the cross-cutting analysis included in the 2015 DDPP synthesis report
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a collaborative global research initiative seeking to understand how individual countries can transition, on a technological, socio-economic and policy “pathway”, to a low-carbon economy consistent with the internationally agreed goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (2°C). Achieving this goal requires that the world cut global net emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) so that they approach zero between 2050 and 2075, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1 2014 findings that to ensure a better-than-even chance of remaining below a 2°C temperature rise, global annual emissions will need to be reduced 42%–57% by 2050 (relative to 2010), and 73%–107% by 2100. This will entail, more than any other factor, the profound transformation of energy systems through steeply reducing carbon intensity in all sectors of the economy. We call this transition “deep decarbonization” and our products, Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs).
The present volume is the fourth issue of the Yearbook series entitled ‘Evolution’. The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of evolution and Big History are covered in the articles of the present Yearbook. Several articles also present the forecasts about future development.
The main objective of our Yearbook as well as of the previous issues is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research in which the scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using the common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. At the same time for the formation of such an integrated field one should use all available opportunities: theories, laws and methods. In the present volume, a number of such approaches are used.
The volume consists of four sections: Universal Evolutionary Principles; Biosocial Evolution, Ecological Aspects, and Consciousness; Projects for the Future; In Memoriam.
This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us!
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a collaborative initiative to understand and show how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy and how the world can meet the internationally agreed target of limiting the increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius (°C). Achieving the 2°C limit will require that global net emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) approach zero by the second half of the century. This will require a profound transformation of energy systems by mid-century through steep declines in carbon intensity in all sectors of the economy, a transition we call “deep decarbonization.” Successfully transitioning to a low-carbon economy will require unprecedented global cooperation, including a global cooperative effort to accelerate the development and diffusion of some key low carbon technologies.
This collection is a special issue of Russian Sociological Review dedicated to the concept of border. The concept itself seems to draw attention in many disciplines. As spatial phenomena, borders are always drawn in spaces, while social scientists, philosophers and other academics often have different meanings of space. Recent reconsiderations of space in terms of networks, flows and events, bring even more complexity to the concept. The current volume contributes to both theoretical and empirical studies of borders on various levels. Contributions look at the relevant phenomena from contemporary or historical perspectives, study narratives about borders, reconstructions of the empirical configurations of borders and other objects (such as bodies), exploring how borders emerge and reshape existing spaces, etc. Overall, the issue contributes to the emerging interdisciplinary field of border studies and encourages cross-disciplinary dialogue.
Work-book «The current state of the Russian oil and gas industry» is offered for publication as a training aid for students qualified at the direction 131000 “Oil and gas engineering”. We have described the geology of hydrocarbons, in particular - the geology of heavy oil, unconventional resources of energy, etc. In this workbook there are also methods for the development of deposits of heavy oil and produce shale oil. Special attention was given to unconventional sources of hydrocarbons, exactly, gas hydrates and clayey shale. Novelty of work-book is presentation of oil and gas terminology to students from China. This work-book is published for the first time and will be very useful for self-study students of oil and gas disciplines, as well as oil and gas terms in Russian, English and Chinese. The manuscript is classified as «Approved by UMO on Higher Education in the field of applied geology as a work book for students enrolled in the direction 131000 “Oil and Gas Engineering”».
Climate change is already having a negative impact on agricultural production in Russia, especially grain production, since this sector is perhaps the most dependent on weather and climate factors. This report presents an economic evaluation of the impact of climate change on crop production at the national level and a long-term economic evaluation of the losses, profits, and risks for agriculture throughout Russia. It analyses the situation in the two the major agricultural regions, where the negative effects of climate change are especially pronounced, and examines the prospects for adapting Russia’s agriculture to climate change
The study includes a variety of topics, from a review of the political, legal and institutional frameworks for the development of a “green economy” in Russia, to concrete practices of separate waste collection, the development of renewable energy sources and aspects of environmental education. We tried to look at the process of sustainable development in Russia from diff erent perspectives, including the political and economic background, the legal situation, existing practices of sustainable development and how environmental information circulated, including journalism and education on sustainable development. The result is a broad study, which includes a collection of articles written by both theorists and practitioners of sustainable development in Russia.
The principal possibility to measure the plasma density and its fluctuations in the ionosphere on ultra-small space vehicles using radiophysical methods is shown. These methods allow us to determine the characteristics of the medium by the properties of the received radiation. It is assumed that each small spacecraft has a satellite navigation receiver as well as a device for emitting and detecting a signal at two multiple frequencies in the radio band. In this approach, information on plasma density is contained in the received phase difference. Radio receivers and radio transmitters on satellites constantly exchange radio signals and then it is possible to determine the plasma density and its fluctuations from the phase shift. Numerical estimates are also made to determine the maximum distance between satellites where one can reliably receive a radio signal.
Toward the development of classical force fields for the accurate modeling of clay mineral-water systems, we have extended the use of metalâ€“Oâ€“H (Mâ€“Oâ€“H) angle bending terms to describe surface Siâ€“Oâ€“H bending for hydrated kaolinite edge structures. Kaolinite, comprising linked octahedral Al and tetrahedral Si sheets, provides a rigorous test by combining aluminol and silanol groups with water molecules in hydrated edge structures. Periodic density functional theory and classical force fields were used with molecular dynamics to evaluate the structure, dynamics, hydrogen bonding, and power spectra for deriving optimum bending force constants and optimal equilibrium angles. Cleavage energies derived from density functional theory molecular dynamics calculations indicate the relative stabilities of both AC1 and AC2 edge terminations of kaolinite where Siâ€“OH and Alâ€“(OH2) or Siâ€“OH, Alâ€“OH, and Alâ€“(OH2) groups exist, respectively. Although not examined in this study, the new Siâ€“Oâ€“H angle bending parameter should allow for improved modeling of hydroxylated surfaces of silica minerals such as quartz and cristobalite, as well as amorphous silica-based surfaces and potentially those of other silicate and aluminosilicate phases.
The interactions among fluid species such as H2O, CO2, and CH4 confined in nano- and meso-pores in shales and other rocks is of central concern to understanding the chemical behavior and transport properties of these species in the earthâ€™s subsurface and is of special concern to geological C-sequestration and enhanced production of oil and natural gas. The behavior of CO2, and CH4 are less well understood than that of H2O. This paper presents the results of a computational modeling study of the partitioning of CO2 and CH4 between bulk fluid and nano- and meso-pores bounded by the common clay mineral montmorillonite. The calculations were done at 323 K and a total fluid pressure of 124 bars using a novel approach (constant reservoir composition molecular dynamics, CRC-MD) that uses bias forces to maintain a constant composition in the fluid external to the pore. This purely MD approach overcomes the difficulties in making stochastic particle insertion-deletion moves in dense fluids encountered in grand canonical Monte Carlo and related hybrid approaches. The results show that both the basal siloxane surfaces and protonated broken edge surfaces of montmorillonite both prefer CO2 relative to CH4 suggesting that methods of enhanced oil and gas production using CO2 will readily displace CH4 from such pores. This preference for CO2 is due to its preferred interaction with the surfaces and extends to approximately 20 Ã… from them.
Cores of bottom sediments of Lake Karakel (Northern Caucasus) were obtained in 2010 and 2014 to perform geochemical studies for reconstructing the regional paleoclimate of the late Holocene. Solid sam- ples of bottom sediments were scanned via micro-XRF with a step of 1 mm at the shared resource center of the Siberian Synchrotron and Terahertz Radiation Center. The contents of more than 20 elements were deter- mined. The scan profiles are used to construct a single reference section with correction for a sediment layer dated via radiocarbon analysis, and to create a sediment core age–depth model.
The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature–hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature–hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.
The mutual influence of interregional migrations, the housing market, and the spatial transformation of the Moscow metropolitan area are studied empirically using the database of housing development projects and the depersonalized database of the residence addresses of buyers in the primary housing market. We consider the influence of natural rent, agglomeration economy, interregional inequality, and distance on the differentiation of the activity of residents of various Russian regions and cities in the primary housing market of the Moscow metropolitan area compared to their migration activity. The main characteristics of the extensive development of the Moscow metropolitan area are the prevalence of large greenfield residential district projects, urban sprawl in the near suburban zone, and the concentration of construction along transport corridors in the middle suburban zone. Selective influence of buyers from other regions on various zones of the Moscow metropolitan area owes to their orientation at the most affordable proposals in the primary market. The near suburban zone is the main gate into the Moscow metropolitan area for migrants, and construction in this zone is a major mechanism of restricting housing prices and maintaining economic incentives for large-scale migration to the Moscow region. Proceeding from the generalization of factors of the spatial transformation of the Moscow metropolitan area, a conceptual model of interaction between migration and urban spatial shifts is proposed.
The nonlinear stage of the modulational (Benjamin–Feir) instability of unidirectional deep-water surface gravity waves is simulated numerically by the fifth-order nonlinear envelope equations. The conditions of steep and breaking waves are concerned. The results are compared with the solution of the full potential Euler equations and with the lower-order envelope models (the 3-order nonlinear Schrödinger equation and the standard 4-order Dysthe equations). The generalized Dysthe model is shown to exhibit the tendency to re-stabilization of steep waves with respect to long perturbations.
Based on the data on addresses of real estate buyers, we assess the investment activity of residents of Russian regions and cities in the primary housing market of the Moscow capital region (MCR) compared to the activity of their labor migrations to the MCR. The objects of our analysis are 149 Russian cities and 80 remaining parts of regions. This enabled us to analyze the specifics of migration and investment behavior for the first time, taking into account differentiation between cities and rural areas, between size classes of cities, and between individual large cities. This enabled us to fill in the gap in assessing the mobility of inputs, i.e., capital and labor. A sharp contrast between settlements of different sizes was revealed in the nature of their interaction with the MCR agglomeration. The intensity of labor migration to the Moscow agglomeration is decreasing rapidly and monotonically with increasing settlement size. The activity of nonresident homebuyers, depending on the population of the city of their residence, varies nonmonotonically, reaching its highest level for cities with populations of 250000–500000 people for Moscow’s housing market and 100000–500000 people in Moscow oblast. Small towns and rural areas (except for the Khanty–Mansi and Yamalo–Nenets autonomous okrugs) are a source of labor for the Moscow agglomeration and show low investment activity in the capital’s housing market. Million-plus cities provide a negligible inflow of labor migrants and are characterized by moderate activity in the MCR housing market, close to the national average. Compared to the premium housing and labor market of the City of Moscow, investment and migration flows to Moscow oblast are shifted to smaller settlements and lower-income regions. The attraction of Moscow oblast rapidly decreases with distance, extending to first- and second-order neighbors, while Moscow’s influence is nationwide.
The run-up of random long-wave ensemble (swell, storm surge, and tsunami) on the constant-slope beach is studied in the framework of the nonlinear shallow-water theory in the approximation of non-breaking waves. If the incident wave approaches the shore from the deepest water, run-up characteristics can be found in two stages: in the first stage, linear equations are solved and the wave characteristics at the fixed (undisturbed) shoreline are found, and in the second stage the nonlinear dynamics of the moving shoreline is studied by means of the Riemann (nonlinear) transformation of linear solutions. In this paper, detailed results are obtained for quasi-harmonic (narrow-band) waves with random amplitude and phase. It is shown that the probabilistic characteristics of the run-up extremes can be found from the linear theory, while the same ones of the moving shoreline are from the nonlinear theory. The role of wave-breaking due to large-amplitude outliers is discussed, so that it becomes necessary to consider wave ensembles with non-Gaussian statistics within the framework of the analytical theory of nonbreaking waves. The basic formulas for calculating the probabilistic characteristics of the moving shoreline and its velocity through the incident wave characteristics are given. They can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.