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Working paper

The Competitive Industrial Performance index (developed by experts of the UNIDO) is designed as a measure of national competitiveness. Index is an aggregate of eight observable variables, representing different dimensions of competitive industrial performance. Instead of using a cardinal aggregation function, what CIP’s authors do, it is proposed to apply ordinal ranking methods borrowed from social choice: either direct ranking methods based on the majority relation (e.g. the Copeland rule, the Markovian method) or a multistage procedure of selection and exclusion of the best alternatives, as determined by a majority relation-based social choice solution concept (tournament solution), such as the uncovered set and the minimal externally stable set. The same method of binary comparisons based on the majority rule is used to analyse rank correlations. It is demonstrated that the ranking is robust but some of the new aggregate rankings represent the set of criteria better than the original ranking based on the CIP.

Added: Sep 25, 2014

Working paper

The paper examines the effects of ambiguity in regulation on the equilibrium allocation. Under ambiguous bailout policy, agents’ suffer from a lack of information with regards to the insolvency resolution method, which would be chosen by the regulator if a financial institution fails. In this case, beliefs of bankers regarding whether an insolvent bank is liquidated, may differ from those of depositors. The beliefs may be asymmetric even if bankers and depositors possess absolutely symmetric information about the policy of the regulator. It is shown that such asymmetry in beliefs can generate an allocative inefficiency of the bank based economy.

Added: Jun 27, 2018

Working paper

This article focuses on the presidential rhetoric of Russian and American leaders at the end of their latest campaigns, taking their victory speeches given immediately after winning their respective elections as examples. The comparative cross-cultural research presented in this study includes cognitive, corpus, and rhetorical approaches and is carried out within the framework of critical discourse analysis. The interconnection between language, culture and politics is evident through metaphors used by national leaders. The metaphor THE RUSSIAN NATION IS AT WAR reconstructed in President Putin’s victory speech is quite different from the metaphor THE AMERICAN NATION IS ONE FAMILY found in President Obama’s victory speech. Archetypal metaphors found in both speeches reflect public values that turn out to be highly contrastive and explain some cultural and political differences between the great powers.

Added: Jan 17, 2014

Working paper

Durand B., Shen A.,

arxiv.org. math. Cornell University, 2012. No. 2896.
We describe all Ammann tilings of a plane, a half-plane and a quadrant. In our description, every tiling is associated to an infinite sequence of two letters. We provide simple criteria of (a) whether a tiling associated with a sequence tiles the entire plane, a half-plane or a quadrant and (b) whether tiling associated with two sequences are congruent. It is well known that all Ammann tilings are aperiodic; we show how one can use this fact to construct an aperiodic 2-dimensional sub-shift of finite type

Added: Dec 11, 2013

Working paper

The decisions to reduce, leave unchanged, or increase an ordered choice variable (such
as a policy rate) are often characterized by abundant no-change outcomes that may be
generated by di¤erent processes. In addition, the decreases and increases may also be
driven by distinct decision-making paths. Neither standard nor zero-inated models for
ordinal responses are well-suited to address these issues. This paper develops a exible
mixture model with endogenously switching regimes. Three latent regimes, interpreted
in the interest rate setting context as loose, neutral and tight policy stances, create
separate processes for the rate hikes and cuts, and overlap at a status quo outcome,
generating three di¤erent types of zeros. The new model shows good small-sample
performance in Monte Carlo experiments, whereas the traditional models deliver biased
estimates of choice probabilities and marginal e¤ects. In an application to the policy
rate, not only is the new model strongly favored by the statistical tests, but it also
produces economically more meaningful estimates with respect to the existing models,
and shows that only sixty percents of zeros are generated by a neutral policy stance,
suggesting a high degree of intentional interest-rate smoothing.

Added: Sep 29, 2014

Working paper

“Achieving oneself” is not a subject of a systematic scientific research in Russian personality psychology. The goal of the current study is to justify the significance of such research in current socio-cultural and scientific context. “Achieving oneself” is understood in this paper as an integral reflectively mediated fulfillment of the I’s potential in leading vital relations hips of a person. The field of study is “the new personology”, the method is hermeneutics. This study offers a reflective model of the I’s potential towards the Other and presents an application of this model to the analysis of the process of achieving one self in a loving relationship.

Added: Jan 28, 2014

Working paper

We examine the novel concept for repeated noncooperative games with bounded rationality: ``Nash-2'' equilibrium, called also ``threatening-proof profile'' in (Iskakov~M., Iskakov A., 2012). It is weaker than Nash equilibrium and equilibrium in secure strategies: a player takes into account not only current strategies but also the next-stage responses of the partners to her deviation from the current situation that reduces her relevant choice set. We provide a condition for Nash-2 existence, criteria for a strategy profile to be the Nash-2 equilibrium in strictly competitive games, apply this concept to Bertrand and Hotelling game and interpret the results as tacit collusion.

Added: Oct 21, 2014

Working paper

In this paper, we present a modification of dynamic programming algorithms (DPA), which we denote as graphical algorithms (GrA). For the knapsack problem and some single machine scheduling problems, it is shown that the time complexity of the GrA is less that the time complexity of the standard DPA. Moreover, the average running time of the GrA is often essentially smaller. A GrA can also solve largescale instances and instances, where the parameters are not integer. In addition, for some problems, GrA has a polynomial time complexity in contrast to a pseudo-polynomial complexity of DPA.

Added: Mar 4, 2013

Working paper

This study will introduce and examine the work of Sugita Genpaku - "A monologue about foreign ships ("Yaso:dokuwa") - valuable historical document that introduces the reaction of the Japanese government to the expedition of Khvosotv and Davidov to Sakhalin in 1806-1807. It was written in the begiining of the 19th century, the period which is believed to be a turning point in the early Russo-Japanese relationship, when Russia began to be percieved as a major dangerous ebemy.

Added: Nov 28, 2016

Working paper

This paper expands the existing informational and analytical opportunities of application of the results of business tendency surveys which solve the problem of the loss of valuable statistical information in its traditional aggregation into simple and composite indicators. Based on methods of multidimensional classification, an algorithm of statistical analysis significantly raises the analytical opportunities for the more wide measurement of trajectories of development and short-term fluctuations of branch of the information technology (IT) is developed and discussed. This allows the construction of behavioral models of business tendency data which improve the understanding of the business cycle in more detail. Furthermore the empirical results confirm the possibility of receiving various information which increases the analytical potential of business tendency surveys.

Added: Nov 22, 2018

Working paper

The Basel Committee introduced countercyclical capital buffers in order to mitigate the effects of bank capital procyclicality, which is to say the decrease in the capital adequacy of banks in economic downturns. The ratio of loans to GDP was taken as the proxy for the economic cycle signaling variable.
Nevertheless, Repullo and Saurina (2011) have proven that the credit-to-GDP ratio is not as accurate at predicting the stage of economic cycle as the GDP growth rate. They proposed a theoretical framework for capital buffer calculations based on GDP growth rate dynamics.
We extend the countercyclical capital buffer analysis in two directions. First, empirical criteria to implement Repullo and Saurina’s model are proposed and justified. Second, the countercyclical capital buffer parameter, is then differentiated according to clusters of countries that display homogeneous patterns of macroeconomic variables dynamics. Lastly, the countercyclical capital buffers based on the Basel Committee’s approach and on the Repullo and Saurina model are then compared.

Added: Jul 9, 2012

Working paper

The paper discusses constructing various versions of Muslim identity by politically opposite actors, the government and Muslim activists, involved in ‘placing’ Muslims in modernizing late-imperial Russia. The problem is approached through the extreme case of M.-B. Hadjetlaché (ca 1870-1929), a baptized Jew reinventing himself as Circassian and Muslim and as such working as a State agent against Muslim opposition and vice versa. His strategies of deceit and reasons to trust him in different cultural and political milieus reveal reciprocal and often shared Orientalisms of the ‘regimes of truth’ defining the processes under study.

Added: Nov 15, 2017

Working paper

Added: Mar 29, 2013

Working paper

Added: Jan 14, 2015

Working paper

Authors analyze the differences between the influence of the foreign direct investments on the economic growth in the developed and developing countries. For the model of the GDP on the foreign direct investments for the developed countries the following data are used: observations for the 10 countries during 1983-2013. For the model of the GDP on the foreign direct investments for the developing countries the following data are used: observations for the 11 countries during 1994-2013. Investigators conclude that the influence of the foreign direct investments on the economic growth definitely has the positive effect in both cases. However, the degree of this influence depends on the type of the country. The developing countries get the smaller effect from the foreign direct investments because of the non-transparent institutional environment and negative influence of other non-economic factors. These findings provide an opportunity to judge that in developed countries, institutional and economic environment and, most of all, human capital allow you to get the full effect of FDI, that is, as capital accumulation and spill-over effects. In developing countries, there should be thresholds to reduce effects of FDI, such as insufficient human capital and poor economic and institutional environment. Thus, the impact of FDI on economic growth is certainly positive, however the level of this effect depends on country characteristics. That is, the hypothesis that FDI affects developing countries less than developed, due to the existence of thresholds in the form of unhealthy institutional and economic environment were confirmed.

Added: Dec 26, 2016

Working paper

The paper proposes a new stochastic intervention control model conducted in various commodity and stock markets. The essence of the phenomenon of intervention is described in accordance with current economic theory. A review of papers on intervention research has been made. A general construction of the stochastic intervention model was developed as a Markov process with discrete time, controlled at the time it hits the boundary of a given subset of a set of states. Thus, the problem of optimal control of interventions is reduced to a theoretical problem of control by the specified process or the problem of tuning. A general solution of the tuning problem for a model with discrete time is obtained. It is proved that the optimal control in such a problem is deterministic and is determined by the global maximum point of the function of two discrete variables, for which an explicit analytical representation is obtained. It is noted that the solution of the stochastic tuning problem can be used as a basis for solving control problems of various technical systems in which there is a need to maintain some main parameter in a given set of its values.

Added: Dec 3, 2018

Working paper

Let K be a field and G be a group of its automorphisms. If K is algebraic over the subfield KG fixed by G then, according to Hilbert's Theorem 90, any smooth (i.e. with open stabilizers) K-semilinear representation of the group G is isomorphic to a direct sum of copies of K. If K is not algebraic over KG then there exist non-semisimple smooth semilinear representations of G over K, so Hilbert's Theorem 90 does not hold. Let now G be the group of all permutations of an infinite set S acting naturally on the field k(S) freely generated over a subfield k by the set S. The goal of this note is to present three examples of G-invariant subfields K\subseteq k(S) such that the smooth K-semilinear representations of G of {\sl finite length} admit an explicit description, close to Hilbert's Theorem 90. Namely, (i) if K=k(S) then any smooth K-semilinear representation of G of finite length is isomorphic to a direct sum of copies of K, (ii) if K\subset k(S) is the subfield of rational homogeneous functions of degree 0 then any smooth K-semilinear representation of G of finite length splits into a direct sum of one-dimensional K-semilinear representations of G, (iii) if K\subset k(S) is the subfield generated over k by x-y for all x,y\in S then there is a unique isomorphism class of indecomposable smooth K-semilinear representations of G of each given finite length.

Added: Nov 16, 2015

Working paper

In this paper, a novel application of the event-related potential (ERP) method is proposed. The authors applied an N400 evoked potential for brand perception analysis, particularly for brand associations. Traditionally, N400 has been used as a marker of semantic incongruence of a word to a context. The N400 activity is manifested in a more negative deflection of ERP response to incongruent stimuli. We recorded N400 in response to congruent and incongruent sentence endings in marketing and non-marketing contexts, respectively. In the main experimental condition, congruent and incongruent brand associations (nouns) presented before brand names were selected from real marketing campaigns building brand communities. In the control semantic memory N400 condition, the incongruent sentence endings evoked significant fronto- centrally distributed N400 brain response at 300–500 ms. The N400 response in the brand association condition was delayed for 250 ms compared to incongruent words in the context of short sentences and appeared in the central brain area. In this study, we showed for the first time the possibility of applying the N400 method to identify the strength of brand associations using ecologically valid stimuli.

Added: Nov 30, 2017

Working paper

This paper investigates the issue of food security as the basis for stable economic development using the example of North Africa. A statistical analysis of economic and financial factors in relation to the determinants of food security was carried out using a panel cointegrating model based on official international statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank for 1991-2014. According to the results, population growth and the intensification of agricultural production, foreign trade and foreign direct investment play a crucial role in food security. The study revealed the relationship between food security and the development of the banking and financial systems in the region, and their degree of globalization. The strategy of a long-term investment policy pursued by the World Bank and FAO to combat hunger and poverty was justified. The methodology proposed can be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of policies to maintain food security in the regions of Africa.

Added: Jul 3, 2017

Working paper

The choice of an appropriate model for the estimation of the cost of equity in emerging markets is still a very challenging problem. Market inefficiency, limited opportunities for diversification, as well as liquidity issues inspire researches to look for risk characteristics beyond the traditional framework of the classical capital asset pricing model. Various models have been developed over the past several decades proposing new ways of risk assessment. However, the empirical evidence of these models requires careful consideration. Most asset pricing models were developed in terms of either a symmetric mean-variance or a folded mean-semivariance framework. These models have several drawbacks in capturing investors’ attitudes to stock price movements. We provide a brief description of the recently proposed entropic risk characteristics which assign greater weight to the downside movements of asset prices and smaller weight to the upside movements. The goal of this study is to determine which model has better explanatory power for returns in the Russian capital market. We compare the performance of risk measures in the Russian stock market on a dataset of 63 stocks for the period from 2003 to 2012. Empirical results show certain advantages of entropic risk characteristics over other risk measures in explaining returns on Russian equities.

Added: Feb 28, 2013

Working paper

We present an easy proof of Polya's theorem on random walks: with the probability one a random walk on the two-dimensional lattice returns to the starting point.

Added: Mar 6, 2018