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Of all publications in the section: 24
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Working paper
Lokshin M., Das J., C. Chiburis R. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2011. No. 5601.
This paper presents asymptotic theory and Monte-Carlo simulations comparing maximum-likelihood bivariate probit and linear instrumental variables estimators of treatment effects in models with a binary endogenous treatment and binary outcome. The three main contributions of the paper are (a) clarifying the relationship between the Average Treatment Effect obtained in the bivariate probit model and the Local Average Treatment Effect estimated through linear IV; (b) comparing the mean-square error and the actual size and power of tests based on these estimators across a wide range of parameter values relative to the existing literature; and (c) assessing the performance of misspecification tests for bivariate probit models. The authors recommend two changes to common practices: bootstrapped confidence intervals for both estimators, and a score test to check goodness of fit for the bivariate probit model.
Added: Oct 26, 2012
Working paper
Carneiro P., Lokshin M., Ridao-Cano C. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2011. No. 5878.
This paper estimates average and marginal returns to schooling in Indonesia using a non-parametric selection model estimated by local instrumental variables, and data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. The analysis finds that the return to upper secondary schooling varies widely across individual: it can be as high as 50 percent per year of schooling for those very likely to enroll in upper secondary schooling, or as low as -10 percent for those very unlikely to do so. Returns to the marginal student (14 percent) are well below those for the average student attending upper secondary schooling (27 percent).
Added: Oct 26, 2012
Working paper
Lokshin M., Fong M. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2000. No. 2400.
The authors model the household demand for child care, the mother's participation in the labor force, and her working hours in Romania. Their model estimates the effects of the price of child care, the mother's wage, and household income on household behavior relating to child care and mothers working outside the home. They find that: Both the maternal decision to take a job and the decision to use out-of-home care are sensitive to the price of child care. A decrease in the price of child care can increase the number of mothers who work and thus reduce poverty in some households. The potential market wage of the mother has a significant positive effect on the decision to purchase market care and the decision to engage in paid employment. The level of household nonwage income has little effect on maternal employment and the demand for child care. In addition to facilitating women's work, kindergartens and cr�hes appear to provide educational and social benefits for children. Close to half the children in these facilities have mothers who do not work. Further research is needed to assess the cost and nature of these benefits and to determine the appropriate roles for the private and public sectors in providing, financing, and regulating such services for working and nonworking mothers.
Added: Nov 13, 2012
Working paper
Tyumeneva Y. A. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2013. No. 10.
This case study examines how the Russian Federation disseminates and uses information from its student assessment system, drawing lessons for other countries seeking to more effectively use their  own  assessment data. Russia’s Unified State Examination (USE) is primarily used for student selection and certification purposes, but a variety of other uses have been attached to  it, including informing  pedagogy, ensuring accountability, and monitoring education quality. This variety of uses has had both positive and negative consequences for the school system. Information from international large-scale assessments (e.g.,  PISA, TIMSS, and PIRLS)1 has been widely used to introduce reforms in the school system. Factors that have affected the differential use of USE and international large-scale assessment data include, among others, the purpose of a given assessment, its design features and level of credibility, and access to the assessment database.  
Added: Sep 17, 2013
Working paper
Lokshin M. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2008. No. 4528.
This paper presents the first critical review of literature on poverty published in Russia between 1992 and 2006. Using a dataset of about 250 publications in Russian scientific journals, the authors assess whether the poverty research in Russia satisfies the general criteria of a scientific publication and if such studies could provide reliable guidance to the Russian government as it maps out its anti-poverty policies. The findings indicate that only a small proportion of papers on poverty published in Russia in 1992-2006 follow the universally-recognized principles of the scientific method. The utility of policy advice based on such research is questionable. The authors also suggest steps that could, in their view, improve the quality of poverty research in Russia.
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Lokshin M., Beegle K. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2006. No. 4018.
The authors estimate the economic losses related to the negative effect of smoking on wages in a context of a developing country. Using data from the 2005 Albania Living Standards Monitoring Survey, they jointly estimate a system of three equations: the smoking decision and two separate wage equations for smokers and nonsmokers. The results show that, after controlling for observed characteristics and taking into account unobserved heterogeneity in personal characteristics, smoking has a substantial negative impact on wages. On average smokers' wages are 20 percent lower than the wages of similar nonsmokers, providing strong evidence for the potential policy relevance of tobacco control initiatives for developing countries.
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Lokshin M., Mroz T. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2003. No. 3153.
The authors study complex interactions between gender and poverty in postwar Bosnia and Herzegovina. The goal of their analysis is to uncover how a spectrum of gender differentials at different parts of the life cycle varies across income groups. Using the data from the 2001 Bosnia and Herzegovina Living Standards Measurement Study, the authors find strong gender-poverty interaction in the patterns of labor force participation, gender gap in earnings, individuals' school finances, and school attendance. The main source of gender inequality seems to come from differences in investments in girls' and boys' educations that increase with declines in income levels. Short-term income shocks could lead to long-term increases in gender inequality in households with school age children, unless there is ready access to credit markets. The authors also find that the magnitude of the impact of economic development on gender differences in Bosnia will depend on where the growth is concentrated. If the poor capture at least some benefits of economic growth, the gender differences in household investment in human capital of their children will decline. If, on the other hand, growth is concentrated among the richest, then important gender disparities could remain pervasive.  gender; labor market; labor force; girls; gender specific; gender roles;gender differences; gender discrimination; gender equality; social welfare; gender disparities; labor force participation; discrimination; sexes; gender gap; women;gender inequality; gender imbalances; biological differences; discriminatory practices
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Lokshin M. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 1999. No. 2206.
The author models mothers' participation in the labor force, their working hours, and household demand for childcare in Russia. The model estimates the effects of the price of childcare, mothers' wages, and household income on household behavior and well-being. The theoretical model yields several predictions. To test these, reduced-form equations of the discrete and continuous household choices are estimated jointly using the method of semi-parametric full information maximum likelihood. This method controls for the correlation of error terms across outcomes, and the correlation of error terms that can result when panel data are used. The results of this analysis indicate that the extent to which mothers participate in the labor force, and for how many hours, depends on the costs of childcare and on what level of hourly wage is available to them and to other members of the household. The author's simulations show that family allowances - intended to reduce poverty - do not significantly affect the household choice of childcare arrangements. Replacing family allowances with childcare subsidies might have a strong positive effect on women's participation in the labor force and thus could be effective in reducing poverty.
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Shepotylo O., Tarr D. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2012. No. 6161.
After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The analysis uses trade data at the ten digit level, which allows the first accurate assessment of the impact of these policy changes. It finds that World Trade Organization commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. After all commitments are implemented, tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent on an un-weighted average basis, or from 13.0 percent to 5.8 percent on a weighted average basis. The average "bound" tariff rate of Russia under its World Trade Organization commitments will be 8.6 percent, that is, 0.7 percentage points higher than the applied tariffs. Russia's commitments represent significant tariff liberalization, but compared with other countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organization, the commitments of the Russian Federation are not unusual, especially when compared with the Transition countries.
Added: Nov 19, 2013
Working paper
Das Gupta M., Gragnolati M., Lokshin M. et al. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2005. No. 3647.
Levels of child malnutrition in India fell only slowly during the 1990s, despite significant economic growth and large public spending on the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) program, of which the major component is supplementary feeding for malnourished children. To unravel this puzzle, the authors assess the program's placement and its outcomes using National Family Health Survey data from 1992 and 1998. They find that program placement is clearly regressive across states. The states with the greatest need for the program - the poor northern states with high levels of child malnutrition and nearly half of India's population - have the lowest program coverage and the lowest budgetary allocations from the central government. Program placement within a state is more progressive: poorer and larger villages have a higher probability of having an ICDS center, as do those with other development programs or community associations. The authors also find little evidence of program impact on child nutrition status in villages with ICDS centers.
Added: Nov 13, 2012
Working paper
Dang H. H., Lokshin M. M., Abanokova K. et al. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2018. No. 8629.
The Russian Federation offers the unique example of a leading centrally planned economy swiftly transforming itself into a market-oriented economy. This paper offers a comprehensive study of inequality and mobility patterns for Russia, using multiple rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys over the past two decades spanning this transition. The findings show rising income levels and decreasing inequality, with the latter being mostly caused by pro-poor growth rather than redistribution. The poorest tercile experienced a growth rate that was more than 10 times that of the richest tercile, leading to less long-term inequality than short-term inequality. The analysis also finds that switching from a part-time job to a full-time job, from a lower-skill job to a higher-skill job, or staying in the formal sector is statistically significantly associated with reduced downward mobility and increased income growth. However, a similar transition from the private sector to the public sector is negatively associated with income growth
Added: Oct 31, 2018
Working paper
Lokshin M., Klytchnikova I. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2007. No. 4217.
Projects and reforms targeting infrastructure services can affect consumer welfare through changes in the price, coverage, or quality of the services provided. The benefits of improved service quality-while significant-are often overlooked because they are difficult to quantify. This paper reviews methods of evaluating the welfare implications of changes in the quality of infrastructure services within the broader theoretical perspective of welfare measurement. The study outlines the theoretical assumptions and data requirements involved, illustrating each method with examples that highlight common methodological features and differences. The paper also presents the theoretical underpinnings and potential applications of a new approach to analyzing the effects of interruptions in the supply of infrastructure services on household welfare.
Added: Nov 13, 2012
Working paper
El laithy H., Lokshin M., Benerji A. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2003. No. 3068.
After a decade of slow economic growth Egypt's rate of growth recovered in the late 1990s, averaging more than five percent a year. But the effect of this growth on poverty patterns has not been systematically examined using consistent, comparable household datasets. In this paper, the authors use the rich set of unit-level data from the most recent Egyptian household surveys (1995-96 and 1999-2000) to assess changes in poverty and inequality between 1995 and 2000. Their analysis is based on household-specific poverty lines that account for the differences in regional prices, as well as differences in the consumption preferences and size and age composition of poor households. The results show that average household expenditures rose in the second half of the 1990s and the poverty rate fell from 20 percent to less than 17 percent. But, in addition to the ongoing divide in the urban-rural standard of living, a new geographical/regional divide emerged in the late 1990s. Poverty was found predominantly among less-educated individuals, particularly those working in agriculture and construction, and among seasonal and occasional workers. These groups could suffer the most from the slowing economic growth evident after 1999-2000.
Added: Nov 13, 2012
Working paper
Shepotylo O., Rutherford T., Tarr D. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2005. No. 3473.
The authors use a computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. Their model is innovative in that they incorporate all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households in the model. This is accomplished because they develop a new algorithm for solving general equilibrium models with a large number of agents. In addition, they include foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in their trade and poverty analysis. In the medium term, the authors find that virtually all households gain from Russian WTO accession, with 99.9 percent of the estimated gains falling within a range between 2 and 25 percent increases in household income. They show that their estimates are decisively affected by liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in business services sectors and endogenous productivity effects in business services and goods. The authors use their integrated model to assess the error associated with a "top down" approach to micro-simulation. They find that approximation errors introduced by failing to account for income effects in the conventional sequential approach are very small. However, data reconciliation between the national accounts and the household budget survey is important to the results. Despite the estimated gains for virtually all households in the medium term, many households may lose in the short term because of the costs of transition. So, safety nets are crucial for the poorest members of society during the transition.
Added: Nov 19, 2013
Working paper
Matytsin M., Popova D., Freije S. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2019. No. 8994.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce applications of RUSMOD—a microsimulation model for fiscal incidence analysis in the Russian Federation. RUSMOD combines household survey micro-data and fiscal policy rules to simulate the Russian tax-benefit system: the size and distribution of taxes collected and benefits paid, and the impact of the system on different population groups. Microsimulation models, such as RUSMOD, are habitually used in developed countries, and can be versatile budgetary policy tools. Using this model, the current tax-benefit system in Russia is examined. The impact of the system is measured across the income distribution, age groups, family types, localities, as well as across time. One of the applications of RUSMOD this paper aims to assess is the role of the tax-benefit system in explaining the incidence of informal employment in Russia. The paper investigates whether the existing system creates disincentives for formalization in terms of reducing disposable incomes and increasing poverty and inequality, and whether a hypothetical tax reform would be able to reduce the opportunity costs of formalization for informal workers, improve distributional outcomes, and increase fiscal revenues.
Added: Sep 6, 2019
Working paper
Shepotylo O., Vakhitov V. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2012. No. 5944.
This paper brings new evidence on the impact of services liberalization on the performance of manufacturing firms. Using a unique database of Ukrainian firms in 2001-2007, the authors utilize an external push for liberalization in the services sector as a source of exogenous variation to identify the impact of services liberalization on total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. The results indicate that a standard deviation increase in services liberalization is associated with a 9 percent increase in TFP. Allowing services liberalization to dynamically influence TFP through the investment channel leads to an even larger effect. The effect is robust to different estimation methods and to different sub-samples of the data. In particular, it is more pronounced for domestic and small firms.
Added: Nov 19, 2013
Working paper
Lokshin M., Popkin B. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2010. No. 2300.
The authors describe trends in single parenthood in Russia, examining factors that affect living arrangements in single-mother families. Before economic reform, single mothers and their children were somewhat protected form poverty by government assistance (income support, subsidized child care, and full employment guarantees). Economic reform in Russia has reduced government transfers, eliminated publicly subsidized pre-school care programs, and worsened women's opportunities in the labor market. The loss of government support has eroded family stability, and left single mothers at increased risk of poverty. Over the last decade, the proportion of households headed by women has increased rapidly, raising the risk of poverty. Single-parent families now represent nearly a quarter of all Russian households. Using seven rounds of data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the authors investigate how household living arrangements, and other factors, affect income in single-mother families. They find that a single parent with more earning power, and child benefits is more likely not to live with relatives. But single mothers are increasingly choosing to live with other adults, or relatives, to survive, and to raise their children in times of economic stress, and uncertainty. Half of all single mothers in Russia live with their parents, their adult siblings, or other adult relatives. Help from relatives is important to single-mother families, and that help - including the sharing of domestic and childcare duties - is more efficient, and productive when the single parent lives with the family. The other half live in independent residences, and face increased risk of poverty.
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Alderman H., Lokshin M. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2011. No. 5846.
Data from three rounds of nationally representative health surveys in India are used to assess the impact of selective mortality on children’s anthropometrics. The nutritional status of the child population was simulated under the counterfactual scenario that all children who died in the first three years of life were alive at the time of measurement. The simulations demonstrate that the difference in anthropometrics due to selective mortality would be large only if there were very large differences in anthropometrics between the children who died and those who survived. Differences of this size are not substantiated by the research on the degree of association between mortality and malnutrition. The study shows that although mortality risk is higher among malnourished children, selective mortality has only a minor impact on the measured nutritional status of children or on that status distinguished by gender.
Added: Oct 26, 2012
Working paper
Lokshin M., Glinskaya E. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2000. No. 2376.
About 20,000 early childhood development centers provided day care for and prepared for primary school more than 1 million children aged three to seven (roughly 20 percent of children in that age group) in Kenya in 1995. The number of child care facilities reached 23,690 by the end of 1999. The authors analyze the effect of child care costs on households' behavior in Kenya. For households with children aged three to seven, they model household demand for mothers' participation in paid work, the participation in paid work of other household members, household demand for schooling, and household demand for child care. They find that: A) A high cost for child care discourages households from using formal child care facilities and has a negative effect on mothers' participation in market work. B) The cost of child care and the level of mothers' wages affect older children's school enrollment, but these factors affect boys' and girls' schooling differently. An increase in mothers' wages increases boys' enrollment but depresses girls' enrollment. C) Higher child care costs have no significant effect on boys' schooling but significantly decrease the number of girls in school.
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Lokshin M., Glinskaya E. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2008. No. 4757.
This paper assesses the impact of work-related migration by males on the labor market behavior of females in Nepal. Using data from the 2004 Nepal household survey, the authors apply the Instrumental Variable Full Information Maximum Likelihood method to account for unobserved factors that could simultaneously affect males' decision to migrate and females' decision to participate in the labor market. The results indicate that male migration for work has a negative impact on the level of market work participation by the women left behind. The authors find evidence of substantial heterogeneity (based both on observable and unobservable characteristics) in the impact of male migration. The findings highlight the important gender dimension of the impact of predominantly male worker migration on the wellbeing of sending households. The authors argue that strategies for economic development in Nepal should take into account such gender aspects of the migration dynamics.
Added: Nov 14, 2012
Working paper
Shepotylo O., Tarr D., Rutherford T. Policy Research Working Paper. WPS. World Bank Group, 2005. No. 3725.
Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.
Added: Nov 19, 2013
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