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Of all publications in the section: 58
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Working paper
Ягафарова А. Е. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 05.

In this paper a two-country static model is developed in order to analyze short-run fiscal multipliers and fiscal spillovers in a monetary union. Both countries are large open economies representing core and periphery countries in the Euro zone. This paper implements a structural VECM framework recognizing short-run and long-run cross-economy relationships in order to empirically investigate
the signs and magnitudes of the multipliers. Empirical analysis covers the period of 1979–2011 quarterly. The results demonstrate that domestic fiscal multipliers are positive but small suggesting that private consumption and investments might be crowded out. In addition, the domestic tax shocks have less impact on the output than the government spending shock. Effect on inflation is more significant. Cross border multipliers are also positive. Moreover, a spending spillover effect is larger than the spillover effect from a tax shock.

Added: Dec 16, 2012
Working paper
Sokolova A. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2013. No. 3.
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of infl ation expectations in Russia. The signifi cance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both infl ation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinfl ation measures introduced by the Central Bank. This paper studies the degree to which infl ation expectations appear forward-looking and backward-looking. We estimate the Hybrid Phillips curve which includes proxies for both backwardand forward-looking components of infl ation expectations. Applying Generalized Method of Moments we asses, which of the two components play a predominant role in determining Russian infl ation. The estimates are based on the monthly macroeconomic statistics for the period 1999–2013. Our analysis suggests that to a large extent infl ation expectations in Russia remain backwardlooking. Hence, it is recommended to take action to enhance agent’s confi dence in the Central Bank’s policy before switching to aggressive infl ation targeting.
Added: Jan 23, 2014
Working paper
Merzlyakov S., Pekarski S. E. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2011. No. 07.
Added: Mar 4, 2013
Working paper
Remington T. F. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2017. No. WP 12/IE/2017.
Around the world, governments, educators and businesses have expressed growing interest in German-style methods of vocational education (VET). In such countries, schools and firms share responsibility for providing technical and vocational education through apprenticeship training, a system often called “dual education.” Dual education’s appeal is two-fold. As an integral component of economic development, it serves to maintain a highly-skilled labor force meeting the needs of a technologically sophisticated industrial economy. As a mechanism for social integration, it has also proven to be an effective way to integrate young people into the workforce, keeping youth unemployment low. Dual education ensures a close fit between the demands of a dynamically changing economy and the skill profiles of those graduating from educational institutions. Little wonder that many countries have turned with renewed interest to the dual education system. However, actual implementation of the dual education outside the core Germanic countries in Europe has proven to be extremely challenging. While a number of national governments have devised grand planning documents calling for “upgrading VET,” “firm-school cooperation,” “practice-oriented vocational education” and “dualization,” successful examples of institutional transfer are rare, at least at the national level. However, in some countries, local partnerships embracing elements of dual education have formed. This paper discusses some of the characteristic patterns of such partnerships and the pathways leading to their formation. The paper focuses particularly on the US case.
Added: Jan 18, 2018
Working paper
Platonov K. E. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. WP12/2012/03.

This paper studies fiscal policy in Russia 2004–2010 with the aid of structural budget balance and fiscal impulse measures. To check for robustness several methods estimating the potential GDP are employed. The research suggests a hypothesis that the output in Russia is subject to two types of shocks: persistent outward shocks and short-term internal shocks. In 2004–2010, fiscal policy coped with the internal shocks but could not smooth outward instability. Fiscal policy in Russia is procyclical; it does not stabilize the output.

Added: Oct 29, 2012
Working paper
Габриш Х. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 01.

This article uses co-integration and related techniques to test for a long-run causal relationship between the fiscal and external deficits of three post-transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, an import propensity model is tested by applying OLS and GMM. All theresults reject the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. Instead, the resultsdemonstrate that specific transition factors such asa high import intensity of exports and net capital inflows affect the trade balance.

Added: Dec 16, 2012
Working paper
Шульгин А. Г. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2014. № 01.
Added: Jun 3, 2014
Working paper
Малаховская О. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2013. № 1.
Added: Jun 10, 2013
Working paper
Пекарский С. Э., Атаманчук М. А., Мерзляков С. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2007. № 02.
Added: Mar 5, 2013
Working paper
Челеховский А. Н. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2011. № 05.
Added: Mar 15, 2013
Working paper
Малаховская О. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2007. № 9.
Added: Jun 8, 2013
Working paper
Левандо Д. В., Ушаков Н. Ю., Антропова А. М. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2007. № 10.
Added: Mar 14, 2013
Working paper
Левандо Д. В. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2007. № 01.
Added: Mar 14, 2013
Working paper
Arefiev N. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2010. No. 01.
Governments are tempted to occasionally revise fiscal policy by increasing sales taxes or introducing a temporary high tax levy on capital income, because such sudden, unexpected policy revisions produce a wealth expropriation effect, whose efficiency is comparable to lump-sum taxation. However, expectations of wealth expropriation produce the opposite effect of a lump-sum subsidy and motivate the government to decrease the consumption tax and temporarily subsidize capital. When expected and realized expropriations coincide, the government faces exactly the same attainable resource allocation set and provides the same policy, as if there were neither expected nor realized expropriation at all. The Ramsey-optimal policy is then dynamically consistent, implies a near-zero capital income taxation from the beginning of the implementation of the optimal policy, and requires some endogenous adjustment of consumption and labor taxes at the beginning of the policy’s implementation.
Added: Mar 15, 2013
Working paper
Малаховская О. А., Минабутдинов А. Р. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2013. № 4.
Added: Mar 5, 2014
Working paper
Кузнецова О. С., Жемков М. И. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2017. № 1.
Added: Jul 20, 2017
Working paper
Кривенко П. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2009. № 05.
Added: Mar 15, 2013
Working paper
Sosunov K. A., Громова Е. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2011. No. 01.
We analyze the effects of positive trend inflation in the framework of the standard New-Keynesian model with Calvo price setting and capital accumulation. We build on the work of Carlstrom and Fuerts (2005) and Ascari and Ropele (2007) who separately considered effects of capital accumulation and trend inflation in the similar context. We show that the simultaneous presence of positive inflation and capital accumulation greatly affects determinacy property of equilibrium in this setup. Namely, we show that in order to maintain stability in addition to actively react to inflation monetary authorities should react to output fluctuations but not to a great extend. Overreaction to output may lead to indeterminacy. We also show that for a large set of plausible parameters standard Taylor rule leads to indeterminacy. We argue that in this case indeterminacy of equilibrium may be an empirically relevant fact and one of the indeterminate equilibrium can resemble the stochastic property of the actual data quite well.
Added: Mar 15, 2013
Working paper
Кузнецова О. С., Мерзляков С. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2015. № 02.
Our paper is devoted to the Bank of Russia’s information policy. In particular, we consider regular and irregular communication channels used for the transmission of information, and compare them to other countries with inflation targeting. Moreover, we discuss further improvement of the Bank of Russia’s transparency: publication of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ minutes and voting records.
Added: Oct 22, 2015
Working paper
Демешев Б. Б., Малаховская О. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2015. № 4.
This paper reviews estimation and forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). In the first part of the paper, we propose a clear classification of the most frequently used prior distributions and we show how the parameters of posterior distributions can be computed for the priors we consider in the paper. A separate section describes the endogenous choice of prior hyperparameters that is currently a key step to estimate a BVAR in a data-rich environment. The second part of this paper is devoted to forecasting with BVARs. We review both point and density forecasting. We also developed a package bvarr for statistical environment R with the same notations as in this review. The bvarr package can be freely used for research and educational purposes.
Added: Feb 18, 2016
Working paper
Веселов Д. А. Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа. WP12. Высшая школа экономики, 2010. № 04.
Added: Mar 15, 2013