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Of all publications in the section: 56
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Working paper
Lapshin V. A., Kurbangaleev M. Z. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 13/FE/2012.
In this paper we develop a joint non-parametric approach to the problem of the decomposition of bond yields and CDS spreads. The proposed approach is essentially an infinite-dimensional modification of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework and is general enough to capture even very non-trivial shapes of the yield and hazard-rate curves. The approach allows us to jointly estimate entire term structures of yields, hazard rates, and liquidity premiums, no matter what shapes they take. We apply the developed methodology to data on major Eurozone sovereign borrowers and consider the most recent period of the Eurozone debt crisis. Our data set includes instruments with maturities from 6 months to 30 years. As a result, we found several interesting interaction effects between those components in terms of term structure. Treating the bond-CDS basis as a measure of the cross-market liquidity spread, we find that cross-market liquidity evolves in a rather non-trivial and pronounced manner. As the credit quality of the reference entity deteriorates, the liquidity of the CDS market dries up, starting from longer terms.
Added: Mar 18, 2013
Working paper
Aleskerov F. T., Keskinbaev A., Penikas H. I. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 04.
The Basel Committee introduced countercyclical capital buffers in order to mitigate the effects of bank capital procyclicality, which is to say the decrease in the capital adequacy of banks in economic downturns. The ratio of loans to GDP was taken as the proxy for the economic cycle signaling variable. Nevertheless, Repullo and Saurina (2011) have proven that the credit-to-GDP ratio is not as accurate at predicting the stage of economic cycle as the GDP growth rate. They proposed a theoretical framework for capital buffer calculations based on GDP growth rate dynamics. We extend the countercyclical capital buffer analysis in two directions. First, empirical criteria to implement Repullo and Saurina’s model are proposed and justified. Second, the countercyclical capital buffer parameter, is then differentiated according to clusters of countries that display homogeneous patterns of macroeconomic variables dynamics. Lastly, the countercyclical capital buffers based on the Basel Committee’s approach and on the Repullo and Saurina model are then compared.
Added: Jul 9, 2012
Working paper
Yury Dranev, Sofya Fomkina. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 12/FE/2012.
  The choice of an appropriate model for the estimation of the cost of equity in emerging markets is still a very challenging problem. Market inefficiency, limited opportunities for diversification, as well as liquidity issues inspire researches to look for risk characteristics beyond the traditional framework of the classical capital asset pricing model. Various models have been developed over the past several decades proposing new ways of risk assessment. However, the empirical evidence of these models requires careful consideration. Most asset pricing models were developed in terms of either a symmetric mean-variance or a folded mean-semivariance framework. These models have several drawbacks in capturing investors’ attitudes to stock price movements. We provide a brief description of the recently proposed entropic risk characteristics which assign greater weight to the downside movements of asset prices and smaller weight to the upside movements. The goal of this study is to determine which model has better explanatory power for returns in the Russian capital market. We compare the performance of risk measures in the Russian stock market on a dataset of 63 stocks for the period from 2003 to 2012. Empirical results show certain advantages of entropic risk characteristics over other risk measures in explaining returns on Russian equities.
Added: Feb 28, 2013
Working paper
Lapshin V. A., Vadim Ya Kaushanskiy. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2014. No. 39.
We present a new nonparametric method for fitting the term structure of interest rates from bond prices. Our method is a variant of the smoothing spline approach, but within our framework we are able to determine the smoothing coefficient automatically from the data using generalized crossvalidation or maximum likelihood estimates. We present an effective numerical algorithm to simultaneously find the term structure and the optimal smoothing coefficient. Finally, we compare the proposed nonparametric fitting method with other parametric and nonparametric methods to show its superior performance.
Added: Jan 30, 2015
Working paper
Penikas H. I. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 03.
The Basel Committee of Banking Supervision initiated a discussion on the most efficient practices to prevent bank managers from excessive risk-taking. This paper proposes a game-theoretical approach, describing the decision-making process by a bank manager who chooses his own level of risk and effort. If the level of risk implies the variability of the future outcome, the amount of effort applied affects the probability of a positive outcome. Although effort is unobserved for the bank’s stakeholders, the risk level is under control, and is associated with certain indicators such as capital adequacy ratio or leverage level. The risk-neutral utility function of a bank manager and a binary game outcome of gaining profit or loss for a bank are assumed. Starting from the general incentive contract scheme having the fixed and variable parts of remuneration, it is proposed that differentiating the variable part of remuneration is sufficient to motivate bank managers to make fewer risky decisions. More precisely, the variable part of remuneration (e.g. the share of the bank’s profit) needs to be higher in proportion to the higher variance of outcome for the high -risk outcome case to stimulate a bank manager to opt for lower-risk decisions in place of higher-risk situations.
Added: May 3, 2012
Working paper
Semenova M., Andrievskaya I. K. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 07.
Market discipline is usually studied in the retail or the corporate deposit markets, while the interbank loan market is disregarded. Banks' abilities to exert market discipline are taken for granted, as they are expected to have the expertise to assess correctly the riskiness of other banks. However, the “crises of trust” (as one in 2004 in Russia) create some doubts as to whether efficient peer monitoring and peer discipline exist: the interbank loan market may be frozen in response to external information which is unrelated to the banks’ current reliability. This seems to be one of the reasons for the interbank loan markets being extremely fragile during periods of financial instability, undermining the smooth functioning of the whole banking system, as banks are tightly interconnected. We provide some evidence for market discipline in the Russian interbank market. We show that the only disciplinary mechanism that functions is a price-based one: more reliable banks enjoy lower interest rates. The quantitative discipline functions only for the largest borrowers. In general, decisions on credit limits are based not on changes in another bank’s riskiness but on other information like reputation, soft information or public announcements that may be even unrelated to a particular bank.
Added: Dec 4, 2012
Working paper
Hainsworth R., Karminsky A. M., Solodkov V. M. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 01.
Investors are being encouraged after the global crisis to reduce their dependence on the largest credit rating agencies for risk assessments of companies and securities. Comparing risk assessments from different sources rapidly becomes non-trivial when more than three credit rating agencies are involved. We propose a method for comparing rating scales, and hence constructing correspondence diagrams and tables, thereby treating the rating scales used by different agencies as objects of study. Scales are compared by looking at sets of ratings assigned to similar entities (in this case banks) with the assumption that the risk being measured by each credit rating agency is the same for a given rated entity at a given point in time. Two ratings assigned by two credit rating agencies may differ for two reasons: the two agencies have different opinions about the relative positioning of the rated entity (e.g., issuer or security) with respect to the universe of other rated entities; both agencies position the rated entity with respect to the universe of other rated entities in the same way, but they use different symbols to represent this position. Type 1 differences should disappear when a large number of ratings are considered. The existence of type 2 differences will require a mapping from one rating scale to another. Studying international bank ratings for a five-year period shows that there are type 2 differences for the largest credit rating agencies. A mechanism for constructing mappings between scales could lead to more competition with new credit rating agencies.
Added: Aug 28, 2012
Working paper
Dranev Y., Babuskin M. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2014
This work contributes to the literature on exchange-rate exposure in emerging markets. We studied datasets of exchange-listed companies from four BRIC countries and discovered that exchange rate movements in the US dollar and euro affected more than 10% of these firms between 2003 and 2013. The most interesting finding of this research is that stock returns behaved differently with increasing and decreasing currency rates. For capturing the asymmetric relationship of stock and exchange rate movements, we applied a nonlinear dynamic model, which significantly improved our results compared to the empirical findings of simple versions of the Adler Dumas (1984) and Jorion (1990) models. We studied determinants of exposure to positive and negative currency movements separately. Although significant determinants in both cases were mostly similar, their weights were different. For example, the ratio of export sales was asymmetrically correlated to exchange rate exposures for all countries except Russia. For a better understanding of the sources of asymmetry in exchange rate exposure, we separately studied the positive and negative coefficients of currency exposure from the non-asymmetric model. This was never done before and natural in a way that determinants should affect positive and negative currency exposures differently. We found evidence of the contrasting impact of export sales and foreign debt in both cases.
Added: Feb 6, 2014
Working paper
Mikhail E. Mamonov. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2013. No. 19.
This paper investigates the relationship between operating cost efficiency and the loan quality of Russian banks. It tries to answer the question whether it is always beneficial for banks to be highly cost efficient (the “bad management” hypothesis) or whether this higher cost efficiency could mean inadequate spending on borrower screening, which could subject banks to higher credit risk exposures in the future (the “skimping” hypothesis)? Our main result implies that, while the “bad management” hypothesis holds on average for the banking sector as a whole, the “skimping” hypothesis could be the case for those Russian banks that are not just highly cost efficient, as predicted by Berger and DeYoung (1997) for US banks, but that at the same time pursue aggressive strategies in the market for loans to households and non-financial firms, especially during the pre-crisis periods when banks are too optimistic to pay increased attention to the quality of borrowers in order to extract higher profits in the short run. Interestingly, we show that the “skimping” strategy is not the case for those Russian banks that demonstrate a lower equity-to-assets ratio and that are highly cost efficient at the same time because, as we believe, higher financial leverage forces these banks to filter out low quality borrowers to be able to repay borrowed funds. From perspective of regulatory policy, these conclusions provide clear arguments in favor of differential prudential regulation in Russia, which could, if being implemented, positively affect the loan quality of both banks that are skimpers (through restricting loans growth by higher capital adequacy requirements and/or increased payments to the Russian Deposit Insurance Agency) and banks that are not (through eliminating incentives to grow too fast), thus improving the stability of the banking sector as a whole.
Added: Oct 25, 2013
Working paper
Mikhail Mamonov, Vernikov A. V. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2015. No. 46.
This paper adds to the literature on banking in transition with regard to the comparative efficiency of public, private and foreign banks. We perform stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) of Russian bank-level quarterly data from 2005 to 2013. The method of computation of comparative cost efficiency is amended to control for the effect of the revaluations of foreign currency items in bank balance sheets. All public banks are split into the core and other state-controlled banks. We employ the generalized method of moments to estimate a set of distance functions measuring the observed differences in the SFA scores of banks and bank clusters, depending on the heterogeneity in risk preference and asset structure. These distance functions explain the changes in bank efficiency rankings. Our results on comparative bank efficiency are qualitatively different from those in mainstream papers. The efficiency scores of Russian banks are higher and less volatile, and spreads between the scores of different bank types are narrower than hitherto believed. Foreign banks appear as the least cost-efficient type of market participants, while the core state banks are, on average, nearly as efficient as domestic private banks. We suggest that foreign banks are capable of being more cost efficient than others if they increase loans-to-assets ratios above the sample median level. Core state banks, conversely, lead in terms of cost efficiency if their loans-to-assets ratio falls below the sample median level. Our approach is potentially applicable to the analysis of bank efficiency in other dollarized emerging markets.
Added: Jun 15, 2015
Working paper
Andreev N. A. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2017. No. WP BRP 59/FE/2017.
We study the boundedness properties of the value function for a general worst-case scenario stochastic dynamic programming problem. For the portfolio selection problem,we present sufficient economically reasonable conditions for the finitness and uniform boundedness of the value function. The results can be used to decide if the problem is ill-posed and to correctly solve the Bellman-Isaacs equation with an appropriate numeric scheme.
Added: Jan 25, 2017
Working paper
Lapshin V. A., Sofia Sokhatskaya. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2018. No. WP BRP 73/FE/2018.
Estimates of the term structure of interest rates depend heavily on the quality of the market data from which it is constructed. Estimated rates can be incorrect because of observation errors and omissions in the data. The usual way to deal with the heteroscedasticity of observation errors is by introducing weights in the fitting procedure. There is currently no consensus in the literature about the choice of such weights. We introduce a non-parametric bootstrap-based method of introducing observation errors drawn from the empirical distribution into the model data, which allows us to perform a comparison test of different weighting schemes without implicitly favoring one of the contesting models – a common design flaw in comparison studies. We use government bonds from several countries with examples of both liquid and illiquid bond markets. We show that realistic observation errors can greatly distort the estimated yield curve. Moreover, we show that using different weights or other modifications to account for observation errors in bond price data does not always improve the term structure estimates, and often worsens the situation. Based on our comparison, we advise to either use equal weights or weights proportional to the inverse duration in practical applications.
Added: Dec 15, 2018
Working paper
Dranev Y., Fomkina S. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2013. No. WP BRP 26/FE/2013 .
We introduce a new asset pricing model to account for risk asymmetrically in a very natural way. Assuming asymmetric investor behavior we develop a utility function similar to a quadratic utility but include a colog measure for capturing risk attitude. Asymmetry in investor preferences follows the asymmetric relationships between asset and market returns in equilibrium. Moreover the local version of the model depends on the characteristics of domestic markets, which is reflected in the different relationship between asset and market returns. We test the model in the Russian and South African markets and show that market premium in the Russian market is higher than in the South African market. 
Added: Jan 24, 2014
Working paper
Zavertiaeva M. A., Parshakov P. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2013. No. 25.
In the era of the knowledge economy intangibles are recognized by investors as pivotal value drivers. Previous research of portfolio forming methods based on intangibles is limited by taking into account only the quantity of intangibles. We propose a tool to select companies able to create knowledge (in contrast to the absorption of knowledge), which is a quality of intangibles. To test whether these abilities are results of skill we implement a bootstrap procedure. It shows that only 22% of companies have the skills to create knowledge, but all of them are characterized by positive results of knowledge creation. To show the practical implications of the proposed approach selected companies are combined in a portfolio. This portfolio demonstrates a higher cumulative return, Sharpe ratio and drawdown than S&P500. We also find the increasing importance of intangibles for investors during the crisis. While exogenous shocks influenced both creators and absorbers, we found that intangibles create an obstacle to a sharp drop of market value.
Added: Feb 6, 2014
Working paper
Karminsky A. M., Kostrov A., Murzenkov T. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. WP BRP 06/FE/2012.
Under the Basel II accord, improving probability of default models is a key risk-management priority. There are four main aspects of this research: suggesting the bank default classification; using a wide time horizon (quarterly Russian banking statistics from 1998 to 2011); investigating the macroeconomic and institutional characteristics of the banking sector environment and finally, testing the accuracy of the models developed. We have employed nonlinearity and automatic classification of the independent variables in our models, paying attention to the structure of the banking market as well as to the reliability of the models developed. We have compared several models for estimating default probabilities. From the results of this comparison, we have chosen the binary logit - regression with quasi panel data structure. Our key findings are: - There is a quadratic relationship between bank's capital adequacy ratio and its probability of default. - The "too big to fail" hypothesis does not hold for the Russian banking sector. - There is a negative relationship between the Lerner index and bank's PD. Macroeconomic, institutional and time factors significantly improve the model quality. We believe that these results will be useful for the national financial regulatory authorities as well as for risk-management in commercial banks. Moreover, we think that these models will be valuable for other emerging economies.
Added: Dec 10, 2012
Working paper
Brodsky B. E., Penikas H. I., Safaryan I. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2012. No. 05.
This paper aims at presenting the research results of revealing a structural shift in copula-models of multivariate time-series. A nonparametric method of structural shift identification and estimation is used. The asymptotical characteristics (the probabilities of the I-type and II-type errors, and the probability of the estimation error) of the proposed method are analyzed. The simulation method verification results for Clayton and Gumbel copulas are presented and discussed. The empirical part of the paper is devoted to structural shift identification for multivariate time series of interest rates for Euro-, US Dollar- and Ruble-zones. The empirical application provides strong evidence of the efficiency for the proposed method of structural shift identification.
Added: Aug 28, 2012
Working paper
Porshnev A., Lakshina V. V., Редькин И. Е. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2016. No. WP BRP 54/FE/2016.
In our paper, we analyze the possibility of improving the prediction of stock market indicators by adding information about public mood derived from Twitter posts. To estimate public mood, we analyzed the frequencies of 175 emotional markers — words, emoticons, acronyms and abbreviations — in more than two billion tweets collected via Twitter API over the period from 13.02.2013 to 22.04.2015. We found that, from 17 emotional markers frequencies with established Granger causality, six provide additional information for the baseline ARMAX-GARCH model according to Bayesian information criteria for the in-sample period of 421 days, and two emotional markers improve directional accuracy and a decrease in the mean-squared error of the model. Our analysis reveals several groups of emotional markers, such as general and specific, direct and indirect, which relate differently to the dynamics of returns
Added: May 12, 2016
Working paper
Agata Maximovna Poroshina. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2014. No. WP BRP 30/FE/2014 .
This paper analyzes the problems of credit risk modeling of residential mortgage lending in Russia. Using unique mortgage loan and macro data from a regional branch of the Agency of Home Mortgage Lending (2008-2012), we find that borrower and mortgage loan characteristics affect the loan performance and play an important role in predicting default as well as a macroeconomic situation. On the residential mortgage market, borrowers with undeclared income have the lowest probability of default, mainly explained by the difference in declared and real income. Obtained results are robust under parametric and semiparametric specifications with correction for selectivity bias.
Added: Apr 24, 2014
Working paper
Semenova M., Shapkin A. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2016. No. 57/FE/2016.
Market discipline in the personal deposit market is of great importance for regulators. In developing economies, which rely much and are dependent on the dollar and euro, changes in the currency structure of the deposits may be strategic and work as an additional disciplining mechanism. Our study sheds light on this mechanism of currency shifts in the Russian market for personal deposits. Using data on more than 900 Russian banks for 2005–2015, we provide evidence that less risky banks—at least in terms of capital adequacy and liquidity—demonstrate higher growth of both the volume and the share of deposits denominated in foreign currency, even when the exchange rate volatility component is extracted. This mechanism continued working during the financial crisis of 2008–2009.
Added: Oct 22, 2016
Working paper
Anna A. Bykova, Evgeniia V. Kuminova. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2013
This paper aims to contribute to the body of empirical studies that address the importance of investments in companies’ relationships and the way in which they influence value creation in the global economic crisis. We employ linear panel analysis using the Hausman–Taylor model to analyse panel data for companies from the five largest European countries in the period 2004–2011. Different types of exogenous and endogenous links which a company could have in different stages of the crisis are investigated. The findings suggest that there is a statistically significant and positive link between relational capital and a firm’s value. Moreover we identify several differences in the significance of the inputs during different crisis periods. The study provides both theoretical and practical insights into investments in intangibles for framing strategy decisions with a particular focus on the role of relational capital. This could provide scholars and practitioners with a working basis for understanding connections and the implications of strategizing in the context of a company’s networks.
Added: Nov 25, 2013
Working paper
Lozinskaia A. M., Ozhegov E. M., Karminsky A. M. Financial Economics. FE. Высшая школа экономики, 2016. No. 55.
This paper investigates the distribution of relative credit losses given mortgage default for loans provided by a major government-sponsored creditor in a local area. We use borrower’s individual and loan-level data on residential mortgages originated in the period 2008–2012. Our numerical analysis indicates that mortgages bunching at certain Loan-to-Value ratios (LTV) led to a discontinuity in relative credit loss given mortgage default. Through regression analysis, we demonstrate discrete jumps in the approximated historical credit losses generated by loans with a high LTV ratios and find thresholds allowing the segmentation of loans according their credit risk. In addition, our results suggest that mortgage insurance is a potentially valuable instrument for compensation for expected loss in certain risk segments. 
Added: Jul 26, 2016