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Working paper

Copula-Based Univariate Time Series Structural Shift Identification Test

An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components. Several nice properties of copula application to time series are discussed. To identify the break copula structural shift test is applied. Data on quarterly GDP growth rate for the US from 1947 till 2012 is used as an empirical example. It is shown that the proposed approach captures the recession of 1981-1982 as the key break date in GDP growth rate series time structure that cannot be identified by standard time series structural break tests.