Short-term forecasting of economic growth in Russia amid uncertainty based on the opinions of entrepreneurs and consumers
This paper analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale business and consumer surveys for 1998–2021. The main purpose of our study is to investigate the predictive value of the opinions and expectations of economic agents, especially in the context of crises and uncertainty. A composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI) combines 18 quarterly time series – the results of surveys of around 24,000 organizations engaged in economic activities and 5,000 consumers in all regions of Russia. A vector autoregression (VAR) model with dummy variables is applied to measure the relationship between quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth and ESI time series as well as short-term GDP growth forecasting. Scenario forecasts until the end of 2022 are determined by GDP growth response to impulses in the ESI. Additionally, we set an interval of ESI values in Q4-2021 according to possible changes in the estimates and expectations of economic agents is introduced into the calculation of the forecast for Q1-2022. Under all forecast scenarios, economic growth in Russia will move into a phase of sustainable recovery which will become more pronounced in the second half of 2022.
Assessment of GDP Growth after the Corona crisis Using the Results of Business and Consumer Surveys / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2021. No. WP BRP 118/STI/2021.
The article analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on the expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of business activity of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for the period 1998-2020. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate the predictive value of ...
Added: March 17, 2021
The Performance of Business and Consumer Sentiment for Early Estimates of GDP in Russia: Old Turning Points and New Challenges of the Corona Crisis
The Performance of Business and Consumer Sentiment for Early Estimates of GDP in Russia: Old Turning Points and New Challenges of the Corona Crisis / НИУ ВШЭ. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2020. No. WP BRP 1 10 STI /20 20.
This study proves the efficiency of the results of business and consumer surveys for the first early estimates of GDP growth in Russia. For the expert community, the use of this alternative information, which is not revised over time and covers major economic activities, is essential when up-to-date traditional statistical information is not available, is ...
Added: June 18, 2020
Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review 2021 Vol. 9 No. 1 P. 7-29
Objective: The objective of the article is to prove the empirical and predictive value of the aggregate opinions of businesses and households for expanding cyclical macroeconomic data in Russia, especially during the coronavirus shocks. Research Design & Methods: We use qualitative information from surveys that cover about 24,000 organisations and 5100 households in all Russian regions. The total economic ...
Added: April 6, 2021
Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 6 С. 8-41
The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis ...
Added: December 20, 2020
Business and consumer surveys in Russia: Focus on economic sentiment and GDP growth / . 2020. No. 7/2020.
This study determines the effectiveness of using assessments and expectations of economic agents in the analysis of macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cyclical interaction between economic growth and entrepreneurial behaviour. The authors used the composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combined the confidence indicators of all sectoral business and consumer surveys ...
Added: May 22, 2020
Экономическое развитие и циклические настроения российских предпринимателей после рецессии 2014-2016 годов
Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 1 С. 53-70
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity ...
Added: February 26, 2020
Bruegel Policy Contribution 2016 No. 21 P. 1-20
The gross general government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced economies have reached the highest levels in peacetime history and continue to grow, putting into question sovereign solvency in these economies. In case of new adverse shocks, whether economic or political, global or country-specific, which result in the deterioration of growth prospects or higher real interest rates, ...
Added: November 25, 2016
Migration, Remittances and Economic Growth: an Empirical Study in The Case of Former Soviet Republics
Perm University Herald. Economy 2016 No. 4(31)
Over the last decade, an international inflow of remittances throughout the world has increased significantly, becoming the second largest source of foreign financial receipts. It is generally accepted that migrants’ transfers have the potential to benefit recipient countries. The empirical evidence of earlier studies provides controversial conclusions; the literature did not give special attention to ...
Added: December 23, 2016
Eastern European Economics 2015 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 167-204
In this article, we define specific (general) human capital in terms of the occupations whose use is spread in a limited (wide) set of industries. We analyze the growth impact of an economy’s composition of specific and general human capital, in a model where education and research and development are costly and complementary activities. The ...
Added: October 7, 2018
Перспективы восстановления экономического роста в России (По материалам круглого стола в рамках ХXI Апрельской международной научной конференции НИУ ВШЭ)
Вопросы экономики 2020 № 7 С. 5-50
The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in ...
Added: July 8, 2020
Экономический рост, ресурсозависимость и социально-экономическое неравенство: Материалы VI Всероссийской конференции 25-27 октября 2018 года
СПб.: Издательство Нестор-История, 2018
Сборник докладов VI Всероссийской конференции, организованной ЦЭМИ РАН, ИПРЭ РАН и МЦСЭИ "Леонтьевский центр" в Санкт-Петербурге 25-27 октября 2018 г. ...
Added: October 27, 2018
Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 2012 № 2 С. 136-142
The paper contains detailed analysis of changes in sphere of state-private partnership which have taken part in the world and in Russia as a result of global financial crisis. The author describes new financial tools of state-private partnership development - infrastructural bonds and life cycle contracts. Besides it is shown that state-private partnership can serve ...
Added: September 29, 2015
Общественные науки и современность 2016 № 1 С. 63-79
The article is devoted to estimation of the impact of cultural diversity on economic growth in the Russian regions in the framework of the neoclassical theory of economic growth. The model developed by R.Barro and X.Sala-i-Martin, called β-convergence, was used as a theoretical basis for the study. The main finding is that cultural diversity has ...
Added: May 5, 2016
Interrelation of the economic growth and the level of the public expenditure in the context of Wagner's Law
Public Administration Issues 2018 No. 6 P. 174-183
Th e paper looks into how the law formulated by A. Wagner can be used to stimulate economic growth in a post-crisis period. Th e major principles of the concept of fi scal economy are given. It is mainly focused on identifying regularities in perpetually growing state spending, which can be explained by increasing the fi ...
Added: December 10, 2019
М.: ИНИОН РАН, 2004
Added: January 27, 2017
P.: ACPI, 2017
Added: September 27, 2017
М.: ИНИОН РАН, 2010
Added: January 27, 2017
Assessment of gross urban product in Russian cities and its contribution to Russian GDP in 2000–2015
Russian Journal of Economics 2017 Vol. 3 No. 3 P. 263-279
The article presents a new methodology for estimating gross urban product (the gross domestic product by city or metropolitan level) in Russia under extremely low statistical data availability about economy performance at the local level. These estimates provide new analytical instruments for assessing disparities in economic development between more than 1,000 Russian cities and other ...
Added: October 27, 2017
Диверсификация экспортно-импортных отношений регионов России как направление экономического роста (на примере Белгородской области)
Теоретическая экономика 2017 Т. 6 № 42 С. 97-105
Foreign trade of the Russian Federation has undergone significant changes since the entry into force of the economic sanction of the European Union and the United States. In addition to the deterioration of trade relations with the main trading partner, the European Union, which previously accounted for almost half of the international trade, Russia was ...
Added: November 28, 2017
Export Performance and Survival in Russia: Why some Regions grow fast and others don't / The Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW). Series "FIW Working Paper". 2015. No. 133.
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between export performance and economic growth in Russian regions. We propose a methodology for decomposition of export growth into intensive and extensive margins and distinguish between product- and geographic extensive components within extensive margin. An empirical analysis suggests that higher growth rates in Russian regions are associated with ...
Added: January 13, 2015
Вопросы статистики 2020 № 27(5) С. 95-113
The article describes in detail the economic consequences of a coronavirus attack for the European region. The authors analyzed the main barriers to rapid economic recovery, the effects of the European Commission's anti-crisis actions, short-term trends, forecasts of international organizations, and risks. According to the authors, many anti-crisis measures were taken in the region too ...
Added: October 21, 2020
Incentives for Local Bureaucrats and Interplay of Control and Executive Hierarchies in Non-Democracies
Incentives for Local Bureaucrats and Interplay of Control and Executive Hierarchies in Non-Democracies / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015.
Non-democratic regimes vary substantially in terms of their economic performance. One of the reasons this heterogeneity of performance is observed is substantial differences in the decision-making and governance mechanisms. Performance of bureaucracy plays a key role in this context. We investigate under which conditions central government in non-democracies is capable ofproviding incentives for subnational bureaucrats ...
Added: October 19, 2015
Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 2015 № 1 С. 149-162
The 19th century saw an explosive growth of the gap between the “First” and the “Third” World as regards per capita incomes and levels of life that has become to be known as the “Great Divergence”. In the 20th century the Great Divergence continued up to the early 1970s, and then – in the late ...
Added: December 3, 2015
Модели экономического роста с неоднородными пространственными эффектами (на примере российских регионов)
Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2016 Т. 20 № 1 С. 52-75
The fundamental idea underpinning spatial econometric models of economic growth is as follows: regional growth is determined not only by social, economic, geographic traits of a region but also by spillovers from other regions, most importantly adjacent ones. If one region starts booming, it can left neighbors unaffected (neutral mechanism), spur their growth (cooperation mechanism) ...
Added: April 22, 2016