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Working paper

«NON-VIOLENT, BUT STILL DANGEROUS»: TESTING THE LINK BETWEEN YOUTH BULGES AND THE INTENSITY OF NON-VIOLENT PROTESTS

Романов Д. М., Korotayev A.
Previous studies have found that the increase in the proportion of youth in adult population can lead to an increased risk of political violence. However, studies of the influence of the ‘youth bulges’ on the intensity of non-violent protest activity have hardly been conducted. We hypothesize that ‘youth bulges’ could influence the rise of non-violent protests as well. We find that though in the absence of controls, there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the proportion of young people in the total adult population and the intensity of non-violent protests this correlation turns out to be positive after the introduction of controls for per capita GDP, urbanization, non-autocratic political regime and the proliferation of education.