Constructing Time Series of Russian Input-Output Accounts into NACE/CPA classifications
Economics/EC. WP BRP. Высшая школа экономики , 2015. No. 108.
Time series of Input-Output (IO) accounts at current and constant prices are widely applied to study the dynamics and structure of economic activity within country and conduct cross-country comparisons and analyses of globalization processes as well as their impacts. For these purposes IO accounts have to adhere to a uniform nomenclature of products and economic activities in accordance with international standards. Unfortunately, Russian statistics currently do not satisfy this condition. The first Russian IO accounts for 2011, built in accordance with international standards, will be published only at the end of 2015 (previously published tables for 1995-2003 were built in the classifications "inherited" from the Soviet period). The IO accounts for 2012 and subsequent years will be built by extrapolating the cost structure of products and services for 2011. However, it leaves the open question of extending the time series of these tables for the retrospective period prior to 2011. As international experience shows, this type of calculation was predominantly conducted by research organizations and universities. Given this, the National Research University Higher School of Economics has been developing a methodology for constructing a retrospective time series of a part of the IO accounts (use tables and valuation matrices) from 2010, in order to experimentally test them, and apply them to the official IO accounts for 2011. The following results were obtained from our study. First, we proposed a two-step procedure to transform IO accounts for 2003 from the Soviet into the OKVED/OKPD classifications. Second, we used a two-stage biproportional method generalizing the RAS procedure to construct a time series of IO accounts for the subsequent period using the 2003 transformed IO accounts as the starting point. Finally, we recalculated a part of the IO accounts (use tables) at the previous year prices.
Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2014 Т. 18 № 1 С. 7-42
A methodology has been developed to construct a time series of Russian Input-Output (IO) accounts for 2003 and subsequent years. This was based on the OKVED (All-Russian classifier of activities) and OKPD (All-Russian classifier of Products by Activity) classifications that are harmonized with the NACE rev. 1/CPA. The construction used IO Accounts for 2003 ...
Added: April 14, 2014
Constructing Retrospective Time Series of Russian Input-Output Accounts Based on the NACE/CPA Classifications
Constructing Retrospective Time Series of Russian Input-Output Accounts Based on the NACE/CPA Classifications / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 108/EC/2015.
Time series of Input-Output (IO) accounts at current and constant prices are widely applied to study the dynamics and structure of economic activity within country and conduct cross-country comparisons and analyses of globalization processes as well as their impacts. For these purposes IO accounts have to adhere to a uniform nomenclature of products and economic ...
Added: November 23, 2015
Методологические проблемы построения систем таблиц "затраты-выпуск" России в классификаторах отраслей и продуктов, соответствующих международным стандартам
Методологические проблемы построения систем таблиц "затраты-выпуск" России в классификаторах отраслей и продуктов, соответствующих международным стандартам / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2013. № 6.
A methodology has been developed to construct a time series of Input-Output (IO) accounts for 2003 and subsequent years. This was based on the OKVED (All-Russian classifier of activities) and OKPD (All-Russian classifier of Products by Activity) classifications that are harmonized with the NACE rev.1/CPA. The construction used IO Accounts for 2003 built in the Soviet ...
Added: November 18, 2013
Вопросы статистики 2021 Т. 28 № 4 С. 5-22
The article discusses two groups of problems in Russian statistics that still have no viable solutions. The first one - the state of the statistics interface – is the set of channels through which users obtain statistical information. The second – metadata status – is the information on how the indicators are constructed. The ...
Added: September 14, 2021
Что сохранит для истории современная российская статистика? / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2014.
Problems of transformation of modern Russian statistics in future historical statistics about our time are considered. Existence of serious obstacles on a way of this transformation is noted, their reasons are analyzed. Requirements to that part of historical statistics about our time which data are used for the analysis of economic dynamics are discussed. Measures ...
Added: January 23, 2015
Вопросы статистики 2017 № 4 С. 22-37
Information and communication technology has reached a level of development that official sites of statistical offices and information resources stored on them has become the major channel for the distribution of statistical data. Therefore issues related to dissemination of statistical information should now be discussed in the context of internet-based databases, i.e. information and ...
Added: April 25, 2017
Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2013 Т. 17 № 4 С. 554-584
The analysis of short-term tendency of economic dynamics can be performed on seasonally adjusted data only. This implies that each time series is to be transformed in two: the seasonal component and the remaining part. The result of such decomposition depends on the specific features of the seasonal adjustment algorithm. Most uncertainty is expected within ...
Added: November 15, 2013
Сезонная корректировка как источник ложных сигналов / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2013. № WP2/2013/04.
The paper analyzes aberrations that appear as a side-effect of seasonal adjustment when applied to time series of economic data in the neighborhood of an abrupt change in level, the pattern of dynamics that was typical for economic crises. Under these circumstances the standard algorithms of seasonal adjustment are shown to be able to produce ...
Added: September 30, 2013
Problems of Economic Transition 2013 Vol. 55 No. 11 P. 36-49
Problems of the development of Russian statistics since the end of the transition period are discussed. It will be difficult to solve these problems without the active participation of the expert community, but they have become disconnected from the statistical agencies. ...
Added: November 15, 2013
Вопросы экономики 2015 № 1 С. 125-146
Problems of transformation of modern Russian statistics in future historical statistics about our time are considered. Existence of serious obstacles on the way of this transformation is noted, their reasons are analyzed. Requirements to that part of historical statistics about our time which data are used for the analysis of economic dynamics are discussed. Measures ...
Added: July 17, 2015
Вопросы статистики 2016 № 10 С. 12-21
The article examines problems related to the measurement of Russian inflation that lead to distorted perception of economic reality which economic agents have. The authors discuss recent changes in methods for constructing the Russian consumer price index (CPI) and the effect this will have on the economic policy. The change in the information base upon ...
Added: October 16, 2016
Управление финансовыми рисками 2020 Т. 63 № 3 С. 166-177
The article discusses a filtering model for the dynamics of the probability of default of corporate companies and other borrowers based on indirect data on the dynamics of overdue debt provided by the Bank of Russia ...
Added: December 8, 2020
Seasonal adjustment of the Bank of Russia Payment System financial flows data / . 2020. No. 65.
This paper describes the seasonal adjustment algorithm used by the Bank of Russia to clean up data for ‘Monitoring of Sectoral Financial Flows’ weekly publication. We have developed a simple and fast procedure based on a set of trigonometric functions and dummy variables that demonstrates good results in terms of various quality metrics and can ...
Added: October 29, 2021
Непараметрическое выделение динамических сезонных циклов / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2002. № 01.
The paper presents a non-parametric seasonal adjustment algorithm based on variational principles. Basic relations of the suggested procedure are considered for two cases – continuous time and time series. Some features and restrictions of the algorithm are discussed. Numerical results of the algorithm are compared with Census X-11 and stationary seasonal wave extraction algorithms. Dynamic ...
Added: March 31, 2013
In this paper we suggest using multilayer perceptron artificial neural network to model and forecast the United States regional economic growth in 1997 -- 2012. Based on the data on the US regional domestic product we estimate a number of ANNs and show that the basic MLP specifications based as inputs on only previous values ...
Added: October 22, 2014
Эмпирическое сравнение математических методов построения динамических рядов системы таблиц «затраты-выпуск»
Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2016 Т. 20 № 4
We investigate the relative effectiveness of the projection methods of Supply and Use tables in relation to Use tables. The empirical bases of the study are the Use tables of 28 countries for the period from 1995 to 2010 from WIOD project. We conduct a comparative study of three mathematical methods that have proven the ...
Added: December 7, 2016
Прикладная эконометрика 2020 Т. 60 С. 48-69
The dynamics of different maturity loans interest rates is studied. dentification strategy, that explicitly allows to introduce the impact of future interest rates expectations and to estimate their significance is used. It is shown that for Russian banking sector in 2010-2020 expectations about future interest rates path have significant but modest impact on current loan ...
Added: February 2, 2021
Journal of Economic Structures 2017 Vol. 6 No. 36 P. 1-22
Matrix updating methods are used for constructing the target matrix with the prescribed row and column marginal totals that demonstrates the highest possible level of its structural similarity to initial matrix given. A concept of structural similarity has a vague framework that can be slightly refined under considering a particular case of strict proportionality between ...
Added: October 22, 2017
Развитие метода RAS на основе гомотетической парадигмы структурного сходства матриц макроэкономических данных
Вопросы статистики 2014 № 8 С. 46-67
The article presents a new method for updating a macroeconomic data matrix on the framework of an advanced RAS multiplicative pattern and GLS principle. The notions of angular and homothetic measures for matrix similarity are introduced. Unified analytical solution of constrained minimization problem for the homothetic measure as an objective function is derived in matrix notation. ...
Added: March 4, 2015
Emerging Markets Review 2001 Vol. 2 No. 1 P. 1-16
This study analyzes two issues related to the GKO futures market in Russia in 1996 and 1997. First, we evaluate the existence of a risk premium in this market. We show its existence providing a functional form for the premium. The main result is that risk premium depends positively on the time before delivery of ...
Added: April 16, 2018
Пермь: Пермский государственный университет, 2011
Пособие подготовлено авторами на основе опыта преподавания эконометрики для студентов экономических факультетов ПермГНИУ и НИУ ВШЭ – Пермь. В учебном пособии изложены основные сведения по разделам курса «Эконометрика». Помимо необходимого теоретического материала приведено много примеров практического применения теоретических результатов. Большое количество практических примеров, приложений и статистических таблиц, а также заданий для самостоятельной работы студентов призвано ...
Added: February 5, 2013
Научно-технические ведомости Санкт-Петербургского государственного политехнического университета. Экономические науки 2013 № 4(175) С. 128-134
This article discusses questions of price forecast for innovative product. Time series have been used in order to predict price movements. For this propose the price (for 24 months) of innovative product, Samsung Galaxy Nexus I9250, was chosen. Based on this information prices for the product were calculated after six months and a year. Also, ...
Added: November 8, 2013
A Binary Model versus Discriminant Analysis Relating to Corporate Bankruptcies: The Case of Russian Construction Industry
Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics 2013 Vol. 3 No. 1 P. 65-76
The last market crash of 2008-2009 showed that the construction sphere is one of the most fragile subject to the crisis effect. The destructive effect of this crash resulted in substantial decrease in mortgage lending, price index, capital investment, and in growth of the cost level. As the construction industry remains strategically important, the eruption ...
Added: September 5, 2013
Профессиональный стандарт "Специалист по управлению финансовыми рисками": опыт разработки и перспективы применения
Экономика и управление: проблемы, решения 2016 Т. 2 № 8 С. 247-252
Под эгидой Гильдии финансовых аналитиков и риск-менеджеров и Русского общества управления рисками разработан новый профессиональный стандарт «Специалист по управлению финансовыми рисками», который предназначен для оценки квалификации риск-менеджеров. В статье описываются предпосылки создания и краткое содержание стандарта с целью его популяризации. ...
Added: September 5, 2016