The methodology of econometric approach to off-site monitoring of the Russian banking system is suggested. It includes econometric models of the probability of bank default, based on historical data on Russian bank defaults; models of ratings assigned to banks by rating agencies or experts, models of banks’ interest rates, and models of banks’ cost efficiency. Models are tested on real data in order to estimate possibility their potential use as part of Early Warning System in banks supervision.
This work is an attempt to explain an enigma of the Russian economy's debarterization which took place in the beginning of the XXI century in the context of institutional-and-macroeconomic analysis of the structure of payments' system. This system is treated as the important part of an institutional environment. Debarterization is explained by a combination of long economic expansion, increasing «money supply/GDP» ratio and growing credit activity of the banks, and also administrative and tax pressing of the government. Nevertheless, the Russian payments' system is basically different from the Western one. The main measured differences are low «money supply/GDP» ratio, high «cash money/total money supply» ratio, an absence of M3 and M4 aggregates. The main causes of this underdevelopment of the payments' system are ineffective enforcement of the contracts by the state, high administrative barriers to entry, a lack of mutual trust, big shadow sector. The main consequences are narrow possibilities for financing both expensive (and long-lived) investment projects and innovative activity.
In the article key global trends and shifts of recent development in large value payment systems and retail payment systems since the middle of 1980-s are analyzed. The paper shows growth of hybrid payment systems, expansion of multicurrency payment systems, increase in electronic payments, and decline in the use of traditional payment instruments.