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О некоторых особенностях экономической оценки запасов сланцевой нефти
Shale oil economics is discussed on the basis of the controversial presentation by David Einhorn at the Ira Sohn investment conference. A careful analysis suggests that most of the alleged weaknesses he flagged up in the shale oil business model are an artefact of his incorrect assuming of a too low depletion rate and, hence, too high development costs per barrel of production. Having been corrected for this error, Einhorn's calculations produce results that comply with both the companies' estimates and stock market valuations. As for the most debated issue of the discussion the Einhorn presentation provoked in the current economic periodicals, the issue of the optional value of the subsoil shale oil reserves, our opinion is that this issue cannot be addressed within the deterministic framework used by Einhorn. The discussion requires a direct stochastic approach.