Социокультурные особенности кризисного управления в условиях сложного общества
By adjusting lending, banks can smooth the macroeconomic impact of deposit fluctuations. This may, however, lead to extended periods of disproportionately high lending relative to deposit intake and, under certain conditions, to the accumulation of risk in the banking system. Using bank-level data for 8477 banks in 129 countries for the period from 1992 to 2015, we examine how banks' market power and other characteristics may contribute to smoothing or amplification of shocks and the accumulation of risk. We find that the higher their market power the lower is the growth rate of lending relative to deposits. As a result, in periods of falling deposits higher market power for the average bank is associated with a greater fall in lending, consistent with amplification of adverse effects during relatively bad times. Strikingly, at very high levels of market power, there is a threshold past which the effect of market power on the growth rate of lending relative to deposits turns positive so that “superpower” banks may contribute to the smoothing of adverse effects when deposits are falling. In periods of rising deposits, however, such banks are more likely to lead to amplification and accumulation of risk in the economy.
The conference is organized in collaboration with Polish Economic Society Branch in Toruń and Brno University of Technology (Czech Republic), BA School of Business and Finance (Latvia), Daugavpils University (Lithuania), Pereyaslav-Khmelnitsky Hryhoriy Skovoroda State Pedagogical University (Ukraine), University of Angers (France), University of Pablo de Olavide (Spain), University of Latvia (Latvia). The conference is addressed to economist from all European Union countries and Eastern Europe. It aims to bring together economists form Western, Central and Eastern Europe to discuss issues in economics, finance and business management. Main conference tracks include: 1. Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Econometrics; International Economics 2. Financial markets; Labour markets; Institutions; 3. Business environment; Management and Marketing.
The paper provides a methodology for identifying and analyzing group-theoretical symmetry in socio-economic applications. Symmetry is disclosed in the tasks of estimating contingent claims, the main hypotheses of financial markets, time series of stock indexes, including pre-crisis periods, the distribution of urban population and the duration of historical periods. The connection of solutions based on symmetry is displayed, in particular, with the management of pension savings and migration flows, as well as with the “digital” transformation of people's life attitudes.
This project aims to test the concept of economic voting in the recent Duma election in Russia in 2016. The key idea is to find an explanation how the change in the standard of living in previous five years had affected the support of the “party of power”. According to the standard theory of economic voting, voters do reward government for economic growth and punish for economic crisis. However, the accession of Crimea and the Ukrainian crisis have caused the opposite effect: the rise of patriotism and trust to current political regime and president Vladimir Putin personally. Using the OLS method, we will test the impact of various indicators on the share of votes gained by the “United Russia” party across regions. We find that social and economic predictors matter, but in theoretically unexpected way: poor regions reward government. We call this effect as “poverty trap”.
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to empirically test the hypothesis about substitution of trade and bank credits during the crisis period among 1570 firms from 16 developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the dynamics of trade credits, following previous studies with special emphasis on (Love et al., 2007). The foregoing methodology was expanded by taking into account the effects of the interdependence between firms by means of spatial panel model.
Findings – The study reveals that, taking into account spatial effects, there is a positive relationship between bank and trade credits, i.e. they behave as complements for each other. Significant positive spatial correlation, obtained for the firms within the same country or cluster, points on the presence of externalities inside these groups. The latter implies that neighboring firms demonstrate similar unidirectional dynamics of trade credits.
Originality/value – Results of this study may create a basis for policy implementation in the sphere of corporate lending, and allows to build appropriate supporting policies during crisis period.
The book contains abstracts of papers presented at the 10th congress of the European Union for Systemics (UES2018) "A Systemic Vision of the Crises: From Optimization to Change Strategy?" which took place in Brussels, in October 15-17, 2018.