Differences in Spatial Effects Between West and East: The Case of Regional Unemployment in Germany
Using spatial panel data modeling, this paper assesses factors in regional unemployment and spatial spillover effects in Germany. Due to historical reasons there exist differences between eastern and western regions of Germany. We explore differences in spatial effects by applying special model specification. We use panel data for 407 out of 413 German regions (using the NUTS III regional structure) for 2001 through 2009.
The chapter summarizes the contributions featured in the overall collection.
In this article, we examine whether the local indicators are able to predict the city-level housing prices and rents better than national indicators. For this purpose, we assess the forecasting ability of 126 indicators and 21 types of forecast combinations using a sample of 71 large German cities. There are several predictors that are especially useful, namely price-to-rent ratios, national-level business confidence, and consumer surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are among the top forecasting models. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by a reduction in root mean square error, compared to the naive models.
The chapter summarizes the subsequent articles and gives an introduction into the topic.
The edited book contains selected articles that were presented at the conference "Welt and Wissenschaft" at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow 2018, April 19.
The European Union’s development vector will largely depend on Germany, the engine of the European economy and integration. Europe in general and Germany in particular are at a crossroads. Strained relations with the United States, the migration crisis, the rise of populism, climate change, and China’s economic boom push relations with Russia into the background. How do young Germans see the future of Europe and their own country? To answer this question, it is essential to take a look at the entire spectrum of political trends in Germany and to analyze which of them evoke the greatest response from the younger generation.
In the light of the unconventional monetary policies implemented by most large central banks around the world, there is an intense debate about the potential impact on the prices of capital assets. Particularly in Germany, skepticism about the sustainability of the current policy by the European Central Bank is wide spread and concerns about the emergence of a speculative price bubble in the housing market are increasing. The present study analyzes a comprehensive data set covering 127 large German cities from 1990 through 2013, using tests for speculative bubbles, both at a national and city level. Furthermore, we apply two new testing approaches: panel-data and principal components versions of explosive root tests. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities. However, it is only in select urban housing markets that prices decouple from their fundamental values. There is no evidence for speculative price movements nationally.
The article considers economic cooperation of Russian and German regions. Some examples of such cooperation are analyzed and a number of reasons impeding its development is stated. Based on the analysis, the author marks out the fields of cooperation, which should be accentuated in further development.