Модель финансовых «пузырей» на фондовом рынке
In the paper some prominent features of a modern financial system are studied using the model of leverage dynamics. Asset securitization is considered as a major factor increasing aggregate debt and hence systems uncertainty and instability. A simple macrofinancial model includes a logistic equation of leverage dynamics that reveals origins of a financial bubble, thus corresponding closely to the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using ROA, ROE, and the interest rate as parameters, the model provides wide spectrum of leverage and default probability trajectories for the short and long run.
Detailed discussion devoted to financial bubbles. Both chronological (from 16th century to modern times) and geographical (from Japan to Kuweit and USA) vantage points are considered. Historical facts are also illustrated by their reflection in world literature. Psychological, sociological, economic and financial explanations of bubbles are covered. A theoretical concept of financial bubble is developed – conditions that drive the creation of a bubble are defined, signs that indicate the presence of a bubble, directly or indirectly, are established. The book reviews dangers associated with this phenomenon and its consequences. Ideas offered in the book may assists in reducing risks associated with investment into overvalued assets.
Proposed a model of financial bubbles and crises based upon the methodology of complex systems analysis. It was shown how the procedures (slice and dice) of a CDO synthesis generated the excess growth of the securitized assets value. The latter being coupled with the high leverage might produce the total collapse of a financial system. On a macrolevel of a system its behaviour was modeled by a differential equation depending on three parameters. The irrationality of financial investors, as it was well known, had been empirically explained by «the greater fool theory». This process, in modern terms, was represented as the autocatalytic process leading to a system's singularity. Such an outcome was explained on the system's microlevel as a process of financial percolation which was modeled, quite surprisingly, by the same equation of a Bernoulli type. Invariant constants of percolation were used to estimate different parameters of a model. The model application to the study of 2007-2010 credit crunch has given rise to the impressively coherent results in terms of probabilities and the return time periods of critical events that took place on the global financial markets.