In an uncertain world, decisions by market participants are based on expectations. Thus, sentiment indicators reflecting expectations are proven at predicting economic variables. However, survey respondents largely perceive the world through media reports. Typically, crude media information, like word-count indices, is used in the prediction of macroeconomic and financial variables. Here, we employ a rich data set provided by Media Tenor International, based on sentiment analysis of opinion-leading media in Germany from 2001 to 2014, transformed into several monthly indices. German industrial production is predicted in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting experiment using more than 17,000 models formed of all possible combinations with a maximum of 3 out of 48 macroeconomic, survey, and media indicators. Media data are indispensable for the prediction of German industrial production both for individual models and as a part of combined forecasts, particularly during the global financial crisis.
This book offers an in-depth analysis of several national case studies on family violence between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries, using court records as their main source. It raises important questions for research on early modern Europe: the notion of absolute power; sovereignty and its applicability to familial power; the problem of violence and the possibility of its usage for conflict resolution both in public and private spaces; and the interconnection of gender and violence against women, reconsidered in the context of modern state formation as a public sphere and family building as a private sphere.
Contributors bring together detailed studies of domestic violence and spousal murder in Romania, England, and Russia, abduction and forced marriage in Poland, infanticide and violence against parents in Finland, and rape and violence against women in Germany. These case studies serve as the basis for a comparative analysis of forms, models, and patterns of violence within the family in the context of debates on political power, absolutism, and violence. They highlight changes towards unlimited violence by family patriarchs in European countries, in the context of the changing relationship between the state and its citizens. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of the History of the Family.
Nella cultura universale di tanto in tanto appaiono intelletti che in un modo o nell’altro predicono i futuri cataclismi storici. Quando tali cataclismi si avverano, e persino quando sono passati, l’interesse per il fenomeno della profezia non diminuisce, in quanto essa coglie, di norma, quei tratti essenziali del fenomeno che si stemperano nei dettagli reali del processo storico. Uno degli sconvolgimenti globali del XX secolo non è solo l’orrore dei sistemi e dei regimi totalitari e terroristici che ha interessato tutta l’Europa - Russia, Germania, Spagna, Portogallo, Bulgaria ecc., - ma è anche la crisi del cristianesimo che si è manifestata con forza inaudita nel fascismo e nel comunismo. Heidegger ha osservato (nel suo studio su Nietzsche) che la sentenza «Dio è morto» non c una tesi dell’ateismo, ma un’esperienza reale ed essenziale della storia occidentale. Aggiungiamo che tale fatto empirico non riguarda solo l’Europa Occidentale, ma anche quella Orientale, in primo luogo la Russia, e che, inoltre, le conseguenze di questo grandioso cataclisma storico non sono superate nemmeno oggi. Per superarle, per vivere nello spazio storico-temporale i motivi del cristianesimo dopo Auschwitzz, che lo vogliamo o no, ci rivolgiamo a due filosofi della tragedia - Dostoevskij c Nietzsche, che hanno saputo esprimere questa crisi del cristianesimo c le cui idee si sono intrecciate nella coscienza degli intellettuali del XX secolo.
The main goal of this book is to deepen our knowledge and share opinions on real SME’s needs, different approaches to technology parks, incubators and entrepreneurial centres, and their role in the success of startups in different countries. To illuminate these issues we have been using the Triple-Helix perspective developed by Loet Leydesdorff and Henry Etzkowitz. Specifically, our studies aim at deciphering the key success factors of incubation programs in different countries around Europe as compared with the best practices round the world. Other research deals with the impact of processes and activities that take place in parks, centres and incubators on the speed and magnitude of startups’ success. Furthermore, we identify the differences between different types of incubators (e.g., university science park, technology park, entrepreneurial incubator, independent commercial incubator, regional business incubator, company-internal incubator, virtual incubator) and their subsequent effect on startups’ sustainability.
This collection of papers is a combined initiative of EPF member think tanks and is the result of two round-table discussions under the Regional Integration research stream. The first event, ‘Drivers of Regional Integration’, took place in Cape Town, 25-27 November 2014; the second, ‘Regional Integration and Regional Value Chains’ was held in Moscow, 21 May 2015.
This book provides an introduction to the topological classification of smooth structurally stable diffeomorphisms on closed orientable 2- and 3-manifolds.The topological classification is one of the main problems of the theory of dynamical systems and the results presented in this book are mostly for dynamical systems satisfying Smale's Axiom A. The main results on the topological classification of discrete dynamical systems are widely scattered among many papers and surveys. This book presents these results fluidly, systematically, and for the first time in one publication. Additionally, this book discusses the recent results on the topological classification of Axiom A diffeomorphisms focusing on the nontrivial effects of the dynamical systems on 2- and 3-manifolds. The classical methods and approaches which are considered to be promising for the further research are also discussed.< The reader needs to be familiar with the basic concepts of the qualitative theory of dynamical systems which are presented in Part 1 for convenience. The book is accessible to ambitious undergraduates, graduates, and researchers in dynamical systems and low dimensional topology. This volume consists of 10 chapters; each chapter contains its own set of references and a section on further reading. Proofs are presented with the exact statements of the results. In Chapter 10 the authors briefly state the necessary definitions and results from algebra, geometry and topology. When stating ancillary results at the beginning of each part, the authors refer to other sources which are readily available.
Information systems have been developed in parallel with computer science, although information systems have roots in different disciplines including mathematics, engineering, and cybernetics. Research in information systems is by nature very interdisciplinary. As it is evidenced by the chapters in this book, dynamics of information systems has several diverse applications. The book presents the state-of-the-art work on theory and practice relevant to the dynamics of information systems. First, the book covers algorithmic approaches to numerical computations with infinite and infinitesimal numbers. Also the book presents important problems arising in service-oriented systems, such as dynamic composition, analysis of modern service-oriented information systems, and estimation of customer service times on a rail network from GPS data. After that, the book addresses the complexity of the problems arising in stochastic and distributed systems. In addition, the book discusses modulating communication for improving multi-agent learning convergence. Network issues, in particular minimum risk maximum clique problems, vulnerability of sensor networks, influence diffusion, community detection, and link prediction in social network analysis, as well as a comparative analysis of algorithms for transmission network expansion planning are described in subsequent chapters. We thank all the authors and anonymous referees for their advice and expertise in providing valuable contributions, which improved the quality of this book. Furthermore, we want to thank Springer for helping us to produce this book.
This proceedings publication is a compilation of selected contributions from the “Third International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems” which took place at the University of Florida, Gainesville, February 16–18, 2011. The purpose of this conference was to bring together scientists and engineers from industry, government, and academia in order to exchange new discoveries and results in a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of dynamics of information systems. Dynamics of Information Systems: Mathematical Foundation presents state-of-the art research and is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in some of the most recent discoveries in information theory and dynamical systems. Scientists in other disciplines may also benefit from the applications of new developments to their own area of study.
Globalization, immigration and economic crisis challenge the conceptions of nations, trans-national institutions and post-ethnic societies which are central topics in social sciences' discourses. This book examines in an interdisciplinary and international comparative way structures of national identity which are in conflict with or supporting multi-ethnic diversity and trans-national connectivity. The book’s first section seeks to clarify the concepts of national identity, nationalism, patriotism and cosmopolitism and to operationalize them consistently. The next section regards the diversity within national states and the consequences for the management of identity and intra-national integration. The third section focuses on external integration between different nations by searching for the "squaring of the circle" between the bonding with co-patriots and the critical reflection of one's own national perspective in relation to others. The last section explores to what extent and in which ways media use shapes collective identity.
Dynamics of Political Violence examines how violence emerges and develops from episodes of contentious politics. By considering a wide range of empirical cases, such as anarchist movements, ethno-nationalist and left-wing militancy in Europe, contemporary Islamist violence, and insurgencies in South Africa and Latin America, this pathbreaking volume of research identifies the forces that shape radicalization and violent escalation. It also contributes to the process-and-mechanism-based models of contentious politics that have been developing over the past decade in both sociology and political science. Chapters of original research emphasize how the processes of radicalization and violence are open-ended, interactive, and context dependent. They offer detailed empirical accounts as well as comprehensive and systematic analyses of the dynamics leading to violent episodes. Specifically, the chapters converge around four dynamic processes that are shown to be especially germane to radicalization and violence: dynamics of movement-state interaction; dynamics of intra-movement competition; dynamics of meaning formation and transformation; and dynamics of diffusion.
The professionalisation of the field of international higher education has, among other things, amplified the need for specific skills at the international office. Even the definition and location of the international office now vary from one university to the next. Among all these changes, who is the international officer of today? As the diversity of opinions, experiences and case studies in this issue illustrate, the answer to this question is anything but straight forward.
In all three countries, inflation will remain at a low level both this year and in 2015. The disinflation environment, however, may exacerbate problems in the fiscal sphere, especially on the back of sluggish economic performance. This will be important for Croatia and Serbia, where budget expenditures (and hence deficits) will increase this year. Slovenia, on the other hand, is demonstrating stronger fiscal discipline.
Inflation has continued to slow in the CEE region, moving into negative territory in Hungary and declining to a historic minimum in Romania. The start of the ECB's QE program and the stabilization of financial markets have given monetary authorities in the two countries more room for rate cuts. Regardless, fiscal discipline will remain under pressure.
> Poland. The Polish economy is growing like a DM economy, while Bulgaria is still searching for a new growth model. Unlike many other countries, Poland was able to avoid recession in 2008-09, and it continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, albeit the threat of deflation exists. Polish economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, supported by a strong performance in construction. Consistent and strong macroeconomic policy kept the country's debt/GDP ratios at bay during the crisis, and has contributed to steady deleveraging in recent years. > Bulgaria. Bulgaria's economic growth remains slow, and after a sharp correction in 2009 the economy saw little restructuring in recent years. There has been deflation since mid-2013, but economic growth is set to accelerate this year to around 1.5%, which could offset the negative impact of deflation on the budget. The country's industrial output improved in 2013-14, but domestic demand has weakened in recent months. > Latvia. Latvia's economic growth still remains strong but may decelerate this year as a side effect of instability in the region and mounting complications in relations between Russia and the EU. Heavily indebted Latvia tightened its macroeconomic policy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and remains committed to maintaining macro stability, having joined the Eurozone. Deflation cannot be ruled out as a result.
Increasing volatility on financial markets, uncertainty about Greece's debt restructuring and economic slowdown, and currency depreciation in the CIS region have put growth prospects in Poland and Latvia at risk. However, Poland has more flexibility to respond to these challenges, as it has an independent monetary policy and weaker links with the CIS.