The guide provides a detailed description of the thematic shifts in children's country camp-based role-playing game epic. Offers organizational and methodical aspects of the game thematic shifts. The publication will help trainees to update knowledge and skills, to develop skills in relationships with peers and teachers, to form a worldview that is the basis for the harmonious development of personality of the teenager and its relationship with the surrounding world.
The tutorial shows the well-established, conventional and most common methods of socio-economic forecasting, given their theoretical basis and provides material for their practical application. As a result of the program, students will not only know the general concepts of how to predict, but also master the skills of practical application of specific prediction methods required for his future career as a manager and economist. In the first volume of the textbook covers the basics of the theory of modern prognostics and its methodological foundations.
In the book deals with modern methods and models of socio-economic forecasting, the most frequently used in practice. Essential part of economic decisions aimed at obtaining results in the future, so to make the right management decisions need to be reliable socio-economic forecasting, which is impossible without knowledge of methods and models. In connection with this prerequisite training of highly economist and manager is to study their discipline "methods of social and economic forecasting." The second volume contains the basic textbook methods and models used today in the socio-economic forecasting. Consistently provides methods and models short, medium and long-term forecasting how simple models of trends and using factor models. In some groups are identified and methods of forecasting models of evolutionary processes of socio-economic dynamics. The textbook is designed for students of undergraduate academic, but may be useful to undergraduates, postgraduates and doctoral students, as well as practitioners dealing with the forecasting of socio-economic processes.