IMEMO report "Russia and the world: 2024" - forecast of the world economy and international relations for the foreseeable medium-term five-year perspective. The horizon of 2024 is determined by both the political calendar and the dynamics of key processes in world politics, security and trade-economic sphere. The report is based on the decades long IMEMO experience in forecast (annual and strategic) research. It analyzes main challenges for Russia and options to respond them.
To date, macroeconomic science has grown extraordinarily and acquired thousands of interesting theoretical models and serious empirical research. The purpose of this work is to draw the attention of Russian researchers to some issues that seem especially significant.
This paper suggests methods for analyzing the activities of certain income groups of households in the Russian Federation in the management of their savings and loans in the framework of dynamic models of rational behavior of macroeconomic agents. The statistical base of the research is the balance of incomes and expenditures of the population, obtained as a result of aggregation of the published tables by Rosstat. Models of individual income groups (heterogeneous households) are dynamic tasks of rational behavior that are similar in structure but differ in the estimated coefficients and, as a result, the reaction of income groups to the current economic policy. The latter fact makes it possible to use this model as a tool for assessing the measures taken and reforms.