Композитные индикаторы раннего реагирования в период коронакризиса: деловая активность и экономическая уязвимость в базовых секторах экономики России
The article presents an overview of business trends in the financial services sector, based on the results of a survey held in 2013 by Higher School of Economics jointly with the Information and Publishing Center "Statistics of Russia". The methodology is based on an international practice of sectoral business tendencies monitoring taking into account peculiarities of the Russian econ-omy at the currant stage. More than 2.6 thousand top managers of financial institutions were questioned in order to obtain their estimates of the level and changes of key indicators. The analysis of opinions, sentiment and expectations of economic agents allowed to characterize the features and development trends of the sector in 2013, to identify the dominant constraints, as well as to form a short-term forecast for the first half of 2014. The study revealed that despite the stagnation of the Russian economy and ambiguous prospects for the world economy, financial market in general, according to his agents’ estimation, still retains stability and potential for fur-ther development. Endogenous systemic factors, mainly the uncertainty of the economic situa-tion in Russia, as well as legal and institutional problems, made more negative impact on finan-cial market than global environment.
This document presents results of non-quantitative observations application and their processing methods, which significantly widen the analytical capabilities of the statistical measurement of the Russian IT market. The need to expand statistical tools that allow to reflect current and future trends in the sectoral development of IT sphere in a fast and visible manner, due to the rapid character of penetration of these services into the Russian market, is argued in the paper.
With the help of business climate indicators and construction of different homogeneous behavior models, analysis of business trends in the financial and economic activities of IT organizations is presented, highlighting the specifics of them functioning within the various cyclic episodes of 2010-2017.
The article presents an overview of business trends in the banking sector based on results of business tendencies surveys of 875 credit institutions in 22 regions of Russia, held in November 2013 by Higher School of Economics jointly with the Information and Publishing Center "Statistics of Russia". The survey program provides key indicators of banking activities level and changes estimated by respondents. According to the results, detailed analysis of the views and attitudes of credit institutions leaders was carried out, mainly to answer the question: how possible development in the credit and deposit market under scenario of 2008 in nearest time? Position of respondents, largely offsetting with the main quantitative parameters of banking statistics, is primarily a reflection of the impact of macro environment and main banking regulator actions on the banking sector in the considered period.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.