Рывок или фальстарт? Выход из карантина по коронавирусу весной 2020 года (опыт 30 стран): доклад к XXI Апрельской международной научной конференции по проблемам развития экономики и общества, Москва, 2020
The global economy passes the COVID-19 related crises. For various projections, the output fall in Russia in 2020 will vary from 2 to 8 percent. So, in comparison with the crises of 1998 and 2008, the current shock can be more severe. In the upcoming years the Russian economy will pass the recovery stage, approaching the new balanced growth path. What proximate sources would push this growth?
With the neoclassical industry growth accounting and the Russia KLEMS dataset the present report aims to shed light on this, considering the growth patterns and sources of growth after the crises of 1998 and 2008. The report unveils the most important sources of the after-2008 stagnation in Russia, which are the decreasing efficiency of the extended oil and gas sector and the suspension of technology convergence. Since the recovery in Russia will be, most probably, caused by the increasing demand on energy and raw materials, driven by the recovery of global markets, policy implications for Russia should include efforts to improve efficiency in such export-oriented sectors, as oil and gas, and efforts, which aim to boost technology convergence such as backing export-oriented firms, which have been integrated to global value chains.
This work contains an express answer to four questions about what happened in the higher education system at the very beginning of the introduction of quarantine measures: (1) how have universities and the states reacted worldwide? (2) what are the reaction of Russian universities? (3) how do students and teachers perceive the situation? (4) Is there enough infrastructure to implement quarantine measures of remote work and training?
Most of the analytics were collected on an initiative basis, but the most important sections were written on the basis of data collected within the working group of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science to organize educational activities in the context of preventing the spread of COVID-19 infection in the Russian Federation under the leadership of the Department of Youth Policy (in terms of sociological student survey) and the Department of Information Technology in the field of science and higher education (in terms of monitoring infrastructure and opportunities Translation courses in distance learning). Data collection and analysis would not have been possible without cooperation with MIREA, as well as representatives of ITMO University, Ural Federal University, Tomsk State University and support from Mail.ru Group and the Association of Volunteer Centers.
All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence on the world energy market and economy overall. The decline in employment and personal consumption has struck more on most vulnerable social classes but the decreased volume of demand can be also attributed to the wealth (catering, tourism and others). Once began, the recession develops by its own rules — a sharp fall in the world trade, fixed capital formation, growth of budget deficits, and particularly strong impact on developing countries most dependent on tourism and financial assistance.
Keywords: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, business cycle, social inequality, personal consumption, capital formation, finance.
JEL: A14, D11, F02, T32.