Потребительские ожидания населения в IV квартале 2015 года
Consumer confidence surveys are regularly conducted in more than 50 countries, including Russia. Most of them measure how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are with respect to the economy in the near future and test the predictive power of CSI components. Only a few studies analyze the determinants of consumer expectations and examine various socio-demographic determinates of CSI components, including age. However, when assessing the effects of age one should separate age and cohort effects. The term cohort effect is used to describe the effects of being born at about the same time, exposed to the same events in the process of their socialization.
The paper provides an overview of theoretical approaches and empirical research which can be used for cohort analysis of consumer expectations. The paper deals with the psychological economics of G.Katona, generation theory of K.Mannheim, N.Ryder's conceptual approach to cohort analysis in social sciences. Special attention is given to the discussion of possible strategies to address the ”identification problem”, i.e. the linear dependency of cohort membership, age, and period. Based on consumer surveys data on saving and consumption, the paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of both “formal” and ‘substantive’ approaches aimed at clarifying the definitions and interpretations of age, period and cohort effects. The article raises the question of how to relate the generational and cohort analysis, as well as describing the principles of historical sociology as a methodological paradigm of such studies.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.