Eastern Europe Economic Update - Poland More Flexible Than Latvia
Increasing volatility on financial markets, uncertainty about Greece's debt restructuring and economic slowdown, and currency depreciation in the CIS region have put growth prospects in Poland and Latvia at risk. However, Poland has more flexibility to respond to these challenges, as it has an independent monetary policy and weaker links with the CIS.
The article examines the role of the "green" shareholders in the formation of the company's responsible corporate policy. The article defines the main effects of the activities of the "green" investors, highlights their non-financial gains. Based on the analysis of French "green" investment funds and the "green" investors activities, the development of ethical economy in Russia is forecasted, where the role of a catalyst is to be taken over by the state, as it has been done in France.
интеграционные процессы на финансовых рынках, эффект перетекания волатильности, динамическая корреляция рядов доходности
Econophysics is a relatively new discipline. It is one of the most interesting and promising trends in modeling complex economic systems such as financial markets. In this paper we use the approach of econophysics to explain various mechanisms of price formation in the stock market. We study a model, which was proposed by Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dietrich Stauffer (Bouchaud 2002; Chang et al. 2002; Stauffer 2001; Stauffer and Sornette 1990), and used to describe the agents’ cooperation in the market. The most important point of this research is the calibration of the model, using real market conditions to proof the model’s possibility of setting out a real market pricing process
Overvaluation on financial markets, high price volatility and quite rapid reduction of emerging markets towards an investment behavior field in terms of predictive estimation and forecast of further market changes. Hereby decision-making basis is a personal investment understanding and, due to favorable business climate, could build up the growth of irrational exuberance and speculative bubbles on financial markets.
This study models Market Certainty Index as a measure of asset overpricing and market overvaluation in terms of a speculative bubble concept. The results also provide insights of how to enhance the facility of overpriced assets studies at non-transparent economies or emerging markets.
Writing the paper on the eve of the G20 summit in Cannes, the author expressed a view that except for French President Sarkozy, no one should be surprised by a disappointing outcome in Cannes. More importantly the author argues that this does not mean that the world economy will not be rebalanced just because the G-20 did not ordain the solution. Unsustainable imbalances will eventually be adjusted by economic forces. Refraining from meaningful and urgent collective action, the G-20 leaders choose to let the world rebalance itself more chaotically, with the inevitable result of making things harder for each other. This is not a collective leadership but a joint abdication of responsibility. To prove its usefulness, the G-20 must do more than help old and emerging economic powers agree to disagree. The paper asserts that if the G20 fails the test, it is only a matter of time when the new creditors will see it as in their individual interests to make common cause either to reform existing institutions or to create new ones free of the dominance of the debtor countries. The author concludes that we can only hope that a new grouping of major creditors arrives as the successor to the G-20 in time to avert a replay of the 1930s. The publication is prepared within the framework of a joint project of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Project and International Organizations Research Institute of the NRU HSE "Increasing Effectiveness of Russia's Participation in G8, G20 and BRICS in accordance with Russian Priorities and National Interests".
In the course of recent ten years algorithms and technologies for network structures analysis have been applied to financial markets among other approaches. The first step of such an analysis is to describe the considered financial market via the correlation matrix of stocks prices over a certain period of time. The second step is to build a graph in which vertices represent stocks and edge weights represent correlation coefficients between the corresponding stocks. In this paper we suggest a new method of analyzing stock markets based on dividing a market into several substructures (called stars) in which all stocks are strongly correlated with a leading (central, median) stock. The method is based on the p-median model a feasible solution to which is represented by a collection of stars. Our method is able to find an exact solution for relatively small-sized markets (less than 1000 stocks) and a high-quality solution for large-sized (many thousands of stocks) markets. We observed an important ``median nesting" property of returned solutions: the p leading stocks, or medians, of the stars are repeated in the solution for p+1 stars.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.