Пятая всероссийская научно-практическая конференция по имитационному моделированию и его применению в науке и промышленности «Имитационное моделирование. Теория и практика»
The paper focuses on the questions of analysis, selection and monitoring of management systems development programs, relying on comparison of the program related expenditures and dynamics of the system’s maturity level, using simulation modeling. In this regard, integrated indicators, which characterize effectiveness of the development program, its financial aspects, as well as its efficiency and duration, are considered. Specific features related with of calculation of the development program integrated indicators using the results of simulation modeling and appropriate statistical metrics are disclosed.
This work discusses a possibility to assess the probability of company default using system dynamic model. This approach is based on Monte Carlo Simulation with various inputs for a system dynamic model. The results are compared with the estimations of rating agencies.
The collection contains annotations to the reports of the 42nd international scientific school-seminar named after academician S. S. Shatalin "System modeling of socio-economic processes".
The standard procedures used in the engineering practice for the dependability prediction of electronic equipment (analytical methods) have a number of significant limitations. Turning to numerical methods, allowing the removal of these limitations, causes the necessity to create the failure model of electronic components for the dependability prediction of electronic components. The aim of the present research is to improve the design work quality by improving the dependability prediction of electronic equipment, taking into account the reliability, durability and storability of electronic components. To develop the failure model, the methods of the dependability theory, the probability theory and computational mathematics have been developed. A failure model of electronic components, representing the functional, linking the implementation of the running time and the base random variable, has been created. In this case, the model parameters have been calculated on the basis of the data on dependability characteristics of their dependencies on the modes and conditions for using the electronic components, as shown on a specific example. Unlike the standardized failure model of electronic components, the proposed model permits simultaneously to take into account the limitations, imposed by the characteristics of reliability, durability and storability, normalized in the Data Sheet.