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Of all publications in the section: 199
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Article
Ахременко А. С., Петров А. П., Филиппов И. Б. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2018. № 3. С. 87-112.

This article is focused upon the survival of democratic regimes and successfulness of democratization. The dynamical mathematical model is presented in the paper. The model’s departing point is the hypothesis of S.M. Lipset  and A. Przeworski that the growth of the welfare leads to a mitigation of the interest groups` conflict over the redistribution of resources. This mitigation is met as a result of interrelated processes of broadening of a «compromise space», which is a range of mutually accepted policies, and of a convergence of different groups` preferences over the redistribution in an area of moderate policies.

The presented model illustrates how social capital (more precisely – its component responsible for trust between strangers) and institutional quality favor the stabilization of democratic regimes through the increase of economic productivity and welfare. According to the predictions of the model, total factor productivity (TFP) – understood as the opportunity of individuals and/or firms to cooperate efficiently – increases the overall wealth of the society  given the same stock of human capital. It fosters the consolidation of democracy due to reduction of social tensions and improvement of functioning of democratic mechanism of economic policy elaboration. Following these results the hypothesis of positive impact of TFP on the survival of democracy is formulated.

The hypothesis was tested by means of survival analysis on the quantitative database on episodes of democratization («Regimes in the World»). The survival analysis showed that TFP is a significant and important predictor that lowers the risk of unsuccessful ending of the democratization episode (of the return back to more autocratic regime). The increase in TFP on 10 percentage points is ceteris paribus associated to the decrease of risk of leaving the track of democratization in 1.2-1.4 times. The obtained results are robust to the changes in the model specification or in a list of control variables.

Added: Jul 10, 2018
Article
Григорьев И. С. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2017. Т. 84. № 1. С. 159-174.

The article presents an overview of the main theoretical approaches to judicial politics revealing the impact of institutional and non-institutional factors. On the basis of the analysis of the existing theoretical models of judicial politics and the relationships between the court and key political players, the author hypothesizes that, despite common theoretical grounds, there is an important distinction between constitutional courts in authoritarian and democratic regimes. Under authoritarianism, judges possess fundamentally different expectations about the prospects for a regime change and therefore are guided by a different yardstick when building internal judicial institutions. While under democracies courts have to succumb to government needs only in some ad hoc cases, such as at times of highly consolidated power, under autocracies this has to be a stable institutional solution.

Added: Apr 13, 2017
Article
Туровский Р. Ф. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2014. № 4.
Added: Feb 18, 2015
Article
Нисневич Ю. А. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2011. № 2 (61). С. 175-185.
Added: Dec 12, 2012
Article
Гимпельсон В. Е. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2018. № 2. С. 170-198.

The material published here is a report on the Thirty-Second Gubernatorial Readings held in Tyumen, April 25th, 2018, under the framework of the joint project conducted by the journal Politeia and the administration of the Tyumen region. The topic of the Readings is the transformations of Russia’s human capital. V.E.Gimpelson, Director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, in his speech provided a definition of human capital and discussed in details a number of questions related to its current state and future development in Russia (supply and demand of human capital in the Russian Federation, the quality of Russia’s human capital and prospects for its growth, resources for investment in human capital etc.). M.A.Giltman, Professor of the Tyumen State University, in his presentation analyzed formation of the human capital in the Tyumen region, primarily in the sphere of education. A.M.Gretsova, HR Director of the West-Siberian Bank of PJSC Sberbank of Russia, and E.A.Rudyk, Head of the Personnel Evaluation and Development Department of RN-Uvatneftegaz, shared their experience in accumulating human capital within their corporations, focusing on the institution of mentoring. M.M.Skvortsov, Director General of JSC “TALK”, winner of the contest “Leaders of Russia”, devoted his speech to the role of the projects of the forum “Russia — Land of Opportunities” in shaping demand and supply of human capital. V.V.Yakushev, Governor of the Tyumen region, summed up the discussion by drawing attention to the complex nature of the formation of human capital and the important roles that the state, business and family can and should play in this process.

Added: Jan 17, 2019
Article
Штейнман М. А. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2019. № 2 (93). С. 28-47.

The metaphor of power is so broad that, without claiming to fully consider all its aspects, M.Steinman focuses on its relatively narrow aspect, related to the narrative field of the fantasy genre in the context of the political changes of the 20th — early 21st centuries. The purpose of her research is to trace the transformation of the understanding of the political metaphor in terms of characteristics that allow it to become one of the key tools of political reflection. At the same time, Steinman draws attention to another important property of political metaphor — its ability to model one or another version of political reality. The connection between metaphor, political myth and fantasy genre is both obvious and debatable. The matrix of fantasy genre was originally created as a field of deep reflections on the topic of modernity rather than as a way to entertain the reader. It is this consideration that encouraged Steinman to combine in the framework of one study Lord of the Rings by J.R.R.Tolkien and Song of Ice and Fire by G.R.R.Martin — each of these authors tried to identify and comprehend the political problems of his time. These problems have received the clearest expression in two images — Tolkien’s Ring of Power and Martin’s Iron Throne. At the same time, according to Steinman, the metaphor of the political game, phrased as “the game of thrones”, possesses a dominant meaning. The analysis of modern media, in particular, provides a compelling evidence of its dominant role. Every time the political agenda implies a debate or elections, memes are activated that refer to the characters of Martin’s novels and a TV-show based on his book. At the same time, one can often see the simplified use of a meme at the level of exploitation of a recognizable formulation.

Added: Oct 13, 2019
Article
Ахременко А. С., Локшин И. М., Юрескул Е. А. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2017. № 2. С. 5-31.

In this paper employing both economics and political science we look into the problem of “development traps”, the mechanisms that block welfare growth in developing countries. By analyzing existing theories (“middle income trap”, “Malthusian trap” etc.) we suggest a systematic approach based on the notion of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). We use mathematical models and theoretical considerations to demonstrate how growth is being impeded through decreasing returns to economic production from a state’s increasing potential for violence. We use a panel sample to empirically test the hypothesis that development barriers, political institutions and economic productivity all influence each other.

Added: Jun 16, 2017
Article
Труевцев К. М. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2006. № 3.
Added: Nov 23, 2010
Article
Стародубцев А. В. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2018. № 4 (91). С. 70-89.

The article is devoted to the discussion of the hypothetical conditions of the successful activity of the regional governments in the contemporary Russia. Based on the literature analyzing the features of governance under domination of practices of bad governance, as well as considering circumstances and factors of governance at the subnational level, A.Starodubtsev describes the challenges that the regional governments face during the execution of their direct responsibilities. Analyzing the institutional, structural and personal factors that are able to affect the process and results of regional public administration, he studies the possible outcomes of their various combinations. The key thesis of the article is the idea that the combination of a governor’s intention upon creating favorable conditions for the development of the regional economy, on the one hand, and ensuring political control over the region, on the other, established positive outcome for long-term socio-economic development. All other combinations of factors are assessed as less favorable. At the same time, in accordance with the basic assumptions of the model proposed by the author intraelite conflicts create the greatest difficulties for development. Under the Russian political circumstances, intra-elite conflicts are fundamentally non-institutionalized. As a result, political actors do not have well-established channels of interest representation as well as a long-term planning horizon, accountability to voters and other mechanisms, which usually mitigate the consequences of such conflicts. However, the reasons for the lack of stable development in regions with intra-elite conflicts require further analysis. Researchers have yet to learn what exactly impedes economic growth in polycentric systems at the subnational level and how political conflict between different segments of the elite affects the selection of those who govern the respective regions.

Added: Dec 29, 2018
Article
Турченко М. С. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2015. № 2. С. 38-53.

Up to the 2002 electoral reform the performance of political parties in Russia's regional legislative elections was poor. According to the federal law introduced this reform, all Russian regions since December 2003 have been obliged to elect no less than a half of the members of their assemblies by proportional representation. As a result, party competition at the regional level became unavoidable. These circumstances gave a good opportunity to study factors of party fragmentation in the entities of the Russian Federation. The study tested three kinds of hypotheses dealing with institutional, sociological and political effects. Analysis based on general sample of elections held in Russian regions since 2003 to 2013 shows that only political effects were robust through the time of observation. Party system fragmentation in Russian entities was systematically deprived by influential regional executive incumbents, federal authorities as well as was connected to the type of regional political regime.

Added: Jun 13, 2015
Article
Шелов-Коведяев Ф. В. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2004. № 2.
Added: Dec 2, 2008
Article
Гласер М. А., Томанн П. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2018. Т. 88. № 1. С. 117-134.

The crisis in Ukraine has led to the deterioration of relations between Russia and both France and Germany. If these two countries fail to mobilize their political will and hold constructive negotiations with the Russian Federation, the further development of the European Union, which faces a profound existential crisis today, will be in question. The key research question of the article is whether and to what extent the renewed Franco-German axis is able to optimize relations between the EU and Russia. The article considers the major parameters of the EU crisis, as well as the main systemic mistake committed by the architects of the integration process in Europe. From the authors’ point of view, the mistake is rooted in assessing the unifying potential of Europe in a too optimistic way and ignoring search for the tools for reconciling important differences between the EU member states in the level of economic development and the political culture. The authors reveal pros and cons of the European Union further expansion and discuss a danger associated with membership in both the EU and NATO. The authors analyze in detail the similarities and differences in the approaches of Germany and France to building relations with Russia. They also specify these countries’ national interests and geopolitical strategies in the EU that directly influence the prospects for reviving a constructive dialogue with the Russian Federation. According to the authors’ conclusion, although a certain restructuring of the European Union under the new Franco-German leadership is quite possible, it is yet premature to expect systemic changes in the relations between the EU and Russia.

Added: Oct 2, 2018
Article
Шевцова И. К., Гилев А. В. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2019. № 2. С. 151-167.

Abstract. Over the last fifteen years municipalities in Russia have lost a significant part of their financial autonomy: the average share of transfers from regional budgets to municipal budgets has doubled. Simultaneously, mu- nicipalities have lost their political autonomy from the regional authorities. The article is dedicated to finding answers to such questions as whether the growth of the financial and political dependence of municipalities went hand in hand with the politicization of regional intergovernmental transfers and whether elec- tion results affect the amount of funds received by municipalities from regional budgets. The authors used an original dataset on two types of intergovernmental transfers, the distribution of which depends on regional authorities, for 70 mu- nicipalities of the Perm Krai and the Novgorod Oblast, 2013—2017.

The regression analysis conducted by the authors confirmed the hypothe- sis that redistribution of budgetary funds between municipalities is decided on political grounds, but this holds true only at the beginning of the electoral cy- cle, which is consistent with the model of rewarding a loyal electorate. As is the case at the federal level, this is about rewarding those who produce “good” electoral results and punishing those who produce “bad” electoral results rath- er than courting swing voters or buying off most problematic territories. The fact that the municipality has its own parliamentarian in the regional legisla- ture can also contribute to obtaining more transfers. Municipal needs for in- frastructure have no impact on the size of transfers.

Added: Sep 2, 2019
Article
Каспэ С. И. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2018. № 3. С. 6-30.

The metaphor of “salvation markets” can be limited useful for understanding the behaviour of those actors who operate in the intersections of sacral and political fields, being guided by their own rational logic, – for example, states. The weakening of their soteriological function, observable in the last decades, can be connected with contraction of “market of salvation” itself, due to the reduction of amount of human suffering. However, this contraction turned out temporary. Restoration of demand to salvation forces states to redefine its strategies, fluctuating between various versions of “civil religion”, “political religion”, radical laicism etc. At the same time, competition worsen between states and other operators of salvation – other forms of political groups (Verbände), as well as traditional and non-traditional hierocratic groups (Verbände).

Hypothetically, by the evaluation criterion of competitiveness of states on “salvation markets” can serve the degree of readiness expressed by their citizens “to fight for their country” In favour of hypothesis argues that the category of the victim, present in some way in almost any sacral discourses and symbolical complexes, passed therefrom both to discourses and to mechanisms of symbolization and legitimation of modern state. Moreover, there are no intuitively obvious evidence of this hypothesis in sociological data. Meanwhile, deeper analysis, possibly, will allow to reveal them. Alternatively, there are grounds to suggest that further course of events will undermine altogether the efficiency of the “market” metaphor in this context – and will require to replace it by the other metaphor. Most likely, it would be the metaphor of “war”.

Added: Sep 24, 2018
Article
Фокин К. В. Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2019. № 3. С. 33-54.

The article is devoted to the problem of political authority that is viewed as a fact of a social reality. The author regards authority as a sociopolitical institution rooted in the biological nature of a human being and evolving throughout the history. The article suggests a framework for a holistic theory of political authority and highlights four stages of its development. The first stage is (political) authority in its pre-human version. These are the forms of leadership generated by the need to solve the functional problem of cooperation among social animals and imply a mobile structure that is based on trust in the leader and is responsive to changes, rather than a rigid hierarchy. The second stage is the emergence of a functional replication of the “animal authority” within the first human communities, formation of the institution of authority and its mergence with religious ideas, the emergence of faith in supernatural agents and supernatural punishment. The third stage is the development of political authority as a religious authority, which led to the establishment of the institution of delegating power from someone who lacks physical properties — God, Gods or state as a “mortal God”. The fourth stage is the demystified political authority, which is established in a secular mo dern so ciety, but retains some elements of its predecessors. According to the author, such an empirical approach to understanding political authority opens up a possibility, among other things, to solve some problems of normative theories, allowing a clearer understanding of the role of authority in the political life of a society

Added: Nov 4, 2019