The article compares the accuracy of point forecasts made with a structural dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) to those made with vector autoregressions estimated by OLS (VAR) and by Bayesian methods (BVAR).The main question addressed in the article is whether DSGE-based forecasts are as accurate as non-structural model forecasts. The comparison is made on the ground of mean squared forecast errors. The results show that the forecasting ability of the DSGE model is in general inferior to that of the BVAR. However, the difference is not critical. Moreover, for some variables and forecasting horizons, the DSGE model produces the forecast with the lowest error among all three models in question.
The paper analyzes the shifts in government priorities in terms of support of big and medium manufacturing enterprises amid 2008—2009 and 2014—2015 crises. Based on the data of 2009, 2014 and 2018 surveys of Russian manufacturing firms, using logit regressions we identify factors that affect the receipt of financial and organizational support at different levels of government. The analysis shows that in 2012—2013 the share of manufacturing firms that received state support shrank significantly as compared to 2007—2008; moreover, the support concentrated on enterprises that had access to lobbying resource (such as state participation in the ownership or business associations membership). In 2016—2017 the scale of state support coverage recovered. However, the support at all levels of government was provided to firms that carried out investment and provided assistance to regional or local authorities in social development of the region, while the factor of state participation in the ownership became insignificant. The paper provides possible explanation for these shifts in the criteria of state support provision in Russia.
The paper considers the factors explaining violent pressure of law enforcement agencies on businessmen in Russia in recent years. This phenomenon has been analyzed from the viewpoint of “destructive entrepreneurship” concept (Baumol, 1990) and “limited access order” framework (North et al, 2009). The paper stresses the key role of economic and political organizations in defending entrepreneurs’ interests. It proposes a number of policy recommendations on incentive system design for law enforcement agencies and development of their public communications with business and civil society organizations.
The phenomenon of high growth medium-sized companies is a major focus within industrial policy in recent years and it has induced an active discussion in many countries about the practicability of the use of state-backed support instruments designed to promote these firms. The new state project to provide support to private high-tech companies-leaders has started in June 2016 upon an initiative of the RF Ministry of Economic Development. The rating "TechUspekh" ("TechSuccess") has been chosen as the main database for further selection of the companies—participants of this project. The article describes main results obtained from the sampling study of the companies included in this rating in 2015 and also brings out a set of possible recommendations for state-backed support measures for such leading companies-"tech-gazelles". The last subsection is devoted to the review of the latest public support programs for the fast-growing mid-sized companies in a number of foreign countries.
The hypothesis of declining individual discount rates for socially significant investments as compared to the rates for socially neutral ones confirmed based on a mass survey with using hypothetical situations on investing by the individuals the lottery prize to long-term social bonds. It is shown the existence of the special type of asset in the form of additional part of capital advanced to investment projects which arises for socially significant projects from the fact that people are ready to vote for their financing at a lower rate. The conclusions have drawn about the value of considered type of asset for the case of Russia, the social base through which it can be accumulated and its differences for merit and public goods of various types. The study was conducted on the basis of a Russian national quota sample.
This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation under Grant number 16-18-10270.