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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 87
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Article
Колосницына М. Г., Коссова Т. В., Шелунцова М. А. Демографическое обозрение. 2019. Т. 6. № 1. С. 124-150.

One of the declared national goals of Russia's development is to increase life expectancy at birth to 80 years by 2030. To achieve this, it is important to understand life expectancy determinants that the government can influence. This paper aims to identify main determinants of life expectancy in groups of countries that differ in the level of life expectancy and show the place of Russia in this range. We use data on 82 countries and conduct descriptive, cluster, and correlation analysis. Our analysis shows that life expectancy in Russia is much lower than in countries with a comparable level of economic development and health care expenditures. Various factors affect public health in different ways depending on the countries' belonging to different clusters on life expectancy. These factors are development of the economy, including health care, urbanization, ecology, nutrition, and unhealthy lifestyles. In conclusion, we provide recommendations for the public policy.

Added: May 14, 2019
Article
Казенин К. И. Демографическое обозрение. 2016. № 4. С. 93-113.

The paper deals with different ‘local’ sources of data on the number of children and fertility in the Republic of Dagestan (North Caucasus, Russia). A study of ‘local’ sources on fertility in comparison with census data in Dagestan is necessary for two reasons. First, the region is known to have serious problems with official demographic statistics, so that all alternative sources should be considered. Second, different parts of Dagestan demonstrate outstanding diversity with respect to fertility, which needs to be studied and explained. The paper discusses the results of a field study undertaken in Dagestan in 2015. In the course of  that study, data on the number of children born in different years between 2000 and 2014 were collected from local administrations, medical institutions and schools in ten villages of Dagestan. The data of the three sources never fully agreed with each other or with census data, but showed regular, statistically significant correspondences. We hypothesize about possible reasons for the differences between the data of the sources on the basis of our interviews with local officials in the villages under study. We argue that the data of medical institutions and schools should be the most reliable. We also compare data of local administrations and medical institutions on the number of women of different age groups and study the possibility of using these data for calculating fertility rates (crude birth rate, total fertility rate, etc.) for different parts of Dagestan, in order to establish the differences between their fertility dynamics.

Added: Nov 7, 2017
Article
Frejka T., Захаров С. В. Демографическое обозрение. 2014. Т. 1. № 1. С. 106-143.
The present stage of fertility change in Russia is characterized by the transformation of the traditional childbearing patterns of relatively early family formation to later family formation. This paper focuses on the process of delaying childbearing at a young age with the subsequent realization of deferred births at older ages among generations of Russians born after 1960. This article uses the new methodological approaches for analyzing demographic changes in the fertility level and age profile of childbearing by birth order, measured by period and cohort fertility indicators. The focus is on identifying shifts in cohort fertility rates, which, unlike conventional period indicators reflect the most fundamental changes in reproductive behavior. Significant changes in the demographic behavior of Russians were intrinsically interwoven with fundamental changes in all aspects of life of young people, for whom the individual space for decisions in all spheres of life was immeasurably expanded since the end of the 1980s. The last three decades were also marked by concern with low fertility and attempts to increase fertility in the early 1980s and the late 2000s. The family policies of the 1980s failed to raise fertility. The surge in fertility for several calendar years as showed by period synthetic fertility measures, e.g. conventional period total fertility rate (PTFR) was not followed by the increase in ultimate fertility for generations of women measured by cohort cumulative and cohort total fertility rate (CTFR). Preliminary analyses indicate that the fate of the 2007 policies could be similar. Will government efforts to raise fertility during the 2010s be sufficiently effective to offset economic and social forces challenging childbearing? As of 2014 the outlook for a future fertility increase does not appear hopeful.
Added: Oct 16, 2014