The idea of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the rise of fertility level. The author's viewpoint is more reserved. There are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in this issue of the Journal, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which will be presented in the next issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.
The paper is devoted to a comparison of mortality by cause of death in Moscow and other megacities of the world in the period after 1990. The selection of megacities was determined by the availability of detailed mortality data in the period under consideration. The objects of our comparison are data for Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Singapore, St. Petersburg, and Tokyo. Mortality from major groups of causes of death are considered, including cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the respiratory and digestive organs, infections and some others. The analysis uses standardized mortality rates by cause of death.
The mortality level in Moscow is significantly lower than in the majority of regions of Russia, but is still substantially higher than in foreign megacities. Due to a big lag at the beginning of the period, the mortality level in Moscow nowadays is higher than in all considered foreign megalopolises in the year 2000. Where Moscow’s mortality level most lags behind others is in mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes. Moscow's successes in reducing mortality in 2000-2014 are very impressive. However, it is difficult to predict how events will unfold in the deteriorating economic situation.
The article looks at different approaches (the "new phase" of the epidemiologic transition, "the second epidemiologic revolution", a "health transition") to conceptualization of the present stage of mortality reduction, in which noncommunicable diseases and causes of death resulting from external sources come to the fore. At this stage, which has lasted for at least half a century, revolutionary changes have taken place in most developed countries. These changes manifest themselves in the drastic expansion of control over non-infectious causes of death, particularly over diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and other noncommunicable diseases, as well as over external causes of death. The consequence of these changes has been the rapid shift of deaths from the abovementioned causes to older ages, an increase in the mean age of death from them and, ultimately, a significant rise in life expectancy. Meanwhile, Russia has been mostly unaffected by these changes and has failed to provide the necessary growth of control over noncommunicable causes of death. The age distribution of deaths from major classes of causes of death in Russia over the past half-century has not changed, leading to a stagnation in life expectancy and to an increasing lag behind the majority of developed countries with respect to this indicator. "The second epidemiologic revolution" in Russia is still a matter for the future.
Infant mortality in Russia has been decreasing for several decades. But in 2011 Russia’s infant mortality rate reached a level (7.4 per 1000 live births) more than three times higher than in countries with minimal levels. In April 2012, Russia adopted new definitions of live and stillbirths, which are much closer to the corresponding WHO definitions than those used before.
The transition to these new definitions was meant to increase the rates of perinatal, early neonatal and infant mortality in general for children weighing up to 1000 grams - those concerned by the changed definition.
This paper analyzes the changes in the structure and dynamics of death in children under 1 year of age since the transition to the new definitions of live and stillbirths, according to birth weight and period of death based on official and medical statistics. It looks at the possibility of distortion of both infant and perinatal mortality and their components.
High premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its long-term adverse trends are one of the main reasons for Russia's lagging behind the developed countries in life expectancy, especially the female population. Despite the mortality decline since 2003, CVD mortality rates at particular ages (30-74 years for men and 30-49 for women) are still higher than they were in 1970. Analysis of long-term changes in life expectancy in Russia shows a negative contribution of changes in CVD mortality for men (-1.0 years in 1972-2010) and a small positive contribution for women (0.7 years in 1972-2010). The mortality structure within the class of cardiovascular diseases in Russia is significantly different from that observed in those countries with the lowest level of CVD mortality. Ischemic heart disease constitutes more than half of all deaths, and this share, in contrast to Western countries, tends to be on the rise. Second place belongs to deaths from cerebrovascular diseases, the share of which is declining, but remains significantly higher than in Western countries. The share of deaths from all other cardiovascular diseases accounts for about 50% of deaths in Western countries, while in Russia it accounts for only about 15%, but is characterized by a very low age at death. Regional patterns of CVD mortality in Russia are discussed, as well as the quality of statistics on causes of death and the changes in coding practices in the Russian Federation.
The article discusses the long-term dynamics (since 1956) of mortality from external causes of death in Russia. Russia has long lagged behind developed countries in terms of the level of mortality from external causes of death, which continues to remain high, as does the structure of such mortality, whose archaism is reflected in the large contribution of homicides, alcohol poisoning and injuries of undetermined intent.
On the basis of life tables, a calculation is made of excess deaths (dx) in Russia compared with Western European countries. It is shown that in Russia the greatest excess losses are associated with mortality from poisonings among both sexes, suicide among men and murder among women.
Mortality from external causes, along with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, has had a significant impact on life expectancy. In general, in the period 1956-2012, the increase in mortality from external causes in the 15-64 age group reduced life expectancy for males by 2.6 years and women by 0.7 years.
The decline, starting in 2003, of mortality from external causes of death has slightly reduced the gap between Russia and developed countries, bringing Russia closer to the levels of mortality reached in the mid-1960s and 1980s. However, given the fluctuations of mortality from external causes, it is premature to say whether the current decline in mortality is a stable trend.
In Moscow, the number of fatalities in road traffic accidents (RTA) in 2016 was, according to police data, 561 people, while Rosstat, using the WHO approach for grouping ICD-10 transport-related codes, puts the number at 790, or 40% higher. Since reliable data are crucial for estimating road traffic mortality and developing effective road safety measures, it is important to understand the reasons for the discrepancy in the two data sources. The main aim of the research is to identify and quantify the factors causing this discrepancy by linking individual records of those who died in RTA in Moscow in 2016. Mortality statistics (1,891,016 death records) and police data on 20,302 road traffic fatalities in Russia in 2016 were used in the research. Both data sources were individual non-personalized records.
As a result of the linkage, 944 records were obtained with Moscow mentioned in at least one of the two data sources; of these, 699 records can be regarded as matched, 245 as non-matched. Of the 561 police records, 84.1% were linked with death records; of the 790 deaths records, 80.3% were linked with police data.
In 6% of linked death and police records the ICD-10 codes used are not part of the codes used by the WHO. In 35% of the linked records, the region of registration of the accident was different from the region of registration of the death.
In 2016, the crude death rate from road traffic accidents in Russia decreased, according to police data, to a level not observed since 1971, after which it continued to decline. The positive trends apparently served as the basis for the optimistic goals laid down in the road safety strategy for 2018-2024.
Based on police data, state statistics on mortality and international databases on mortality and road safety, the authors try to answer these questions: Are the goals set achievable within the specified timeframe, and how consistent are they with European trends in road traffic mortality, as well as with Russia’s current differentiation of road traffic mortality by space, age and category of road users?
The study showed that the deadlines for achieving targets in the road safety strategy are very tight. Today, only large and medium-sized cities have the potential to implement a new road safety strategy in which the crude death rate should not exceed 1.5-2 deaths per 100 thousand people by 2024, whereas in small cities and rural settlements - 2.5-3 deaths per 100 thousand people. For many years, the main risk groups have been drivers and passengers aged 15-44 and pedestrians over 60, who do not appear in the road safety strategy as priority categories.
In addition, the article shows that in order to eliminate the existing discrepancies between the numbers of deaths published by the two official accounting systems (the police and Rosstat), the very first step might be for Rosstat to stop calculating the road traffic death toll based on the current brief list of causes of death and transition to one of the two international options for aggregating three-digit codes of causes of death used by the WHO.
Deaths due to injuries and poisoning which experts could not identify as homicide, suicide or accident are registered in statistics as deaths due to an event of undetermined intent. The proportion of such deaths can indicate the quality of the statistics of causes of death, above all of the statistics of intentional self-harms and assaults. In Russia, the proportion of deaths due to events of undetermined intent among other external causes has been growing for almost four decades. Such a trend was observed in the past during periods of growing mortality of external causes. Yet the steady and long decline in mortality from external causes in Russia that began in 2003 has not stopped the trend. The pushing aside of other external causes continues, though mortality from events of undetermined intent has exceeded both suicide and homicide mortality, and its proportion has increased tenfold, reaching very high levels relative to other countries. In a number of studies done in Russia over the past decade it was argued that such a high proportion depends largely on manipulations with statistics of mortality from external causes, the so-called conversion of socially important causes of death to a latent form.
Based on a review of relevant research and long-term trends of mortality from external causes in Russia and in a selected set of developed countries, the factors behind the persistent rise of the proportion of deaths due to events of undetermined intent are analysed. This makes it possible to expand the contextual framework of the discussion about the factors of the persistent growth of this ‘technical’ indicator and about the hypothesis of the ‘natural’ character of such dynamics.
Using different data sources (HCoD, IRTAD, UNECE statistical database, police data), our research shows that the significant excess of pedestrian mortality over vehicle occupant mortality in 1988-1999 in Russia according to RusFMD is an abnormal phenomenon that most likely never occurred. Thus, in order to assess levels of mortality by road user types, it is preferable to use police data, according to which, in Russia, pedestrian mortality almost never exceeds that of vehicle occupants. The steady decline in pedestrian mortality began in 2003, not in 1993, as vital statistics show. In 2008, the crude death rate of pedestrians reached the minimum value of the Soviet period. Vehicle occupant mortality, after significant fluctuations, dropped to the level of the early 1970s only in 2015-2017. The use of vital statistics is possible if it is necessary to differentiate road traffic mortality by sex, age, and type of settlements. Categorization by road user types should be done with caution, using the following data sources: HCoD data from 1988 and RusFMD data from 1970 to 1988 and after 1999. It is suggested that difficulties in analyzing long-term mortality by category of road users based on vital statistics may occur in post-Soviet countries, where the Soviet abridged classification of causes of death was used. The prevalence of unspecified V-codes should also be considered.
Russia’s age-specific mortality pattern due to external causes differs substantially from those observed in other developed countries. One of its distinctive features is rather low mortality at older ages. A comparison of mortality rates due to certain groups of causes falling into the category of “External causes of morbidity and mortality” shows that low mortality due to external causes at older ages in Russia is the result of specific coding practices for fall-related deaths. Mortality due to other groups of external causes in Russia, however, is high compared to other countries.
Mortality due to external causes at older ages has specific features that distinguish it from younger age groups. This manifests itself both in significant changes of the mortality structure within the category of “External causes of morbidity and mortality” appearing with age and in risk factors specific to the elderly population.
This article presents a brief analysis of elderly mortality in Russia due to certain groups of external causes, a study of current trends and a comparison with some other developed countries. The analysis concerned two age groups: 60-74 years and 75 years and older. This made it possible to identify specific characteristics of mortality due to external causes separately for the young and older elderly.
The article presents a detailed description of global remittance trends and the factors influencing them. The authors focus on recent changes among leading countries in the sending and receiving of remittances and analyze the reasons for these changes. Moreover, the article sheds light on the role of remittances in the socio-economic development of poor countries. The article begins with an analysis of the sources of remittances, as there have been recent conceptual changes in the methods of calculating these flows. The authors pay special attention to money remittances in Russia and the factors of discrepancies between remittances as calculated by Central Bank and World Bank methodologies.
According to the May Presidential Decree (2018), one of the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 is “ensuring sustainable natural growth in the population of the Russian Federation and increasing life expectancy to 78 years”. Thus, the increased need to monitor the current demographic situation, the study of the structure of demographic indicators, and the close attention of the community to the realization of national goals led to the choice of the topic of this study. The paper studies the problems of modeling the seasonality of demographic indicators in the Russian Federation (the number of births, the number of deaths, infant mortality, the number of marriages) according to monthly data of Rosstat for the period 2007-2018. Foreign studies have shown that, along with traditional demographic methods, ARIMA models give good results in forecasting of demographic indicators (population size, birth and death rates, life expectancy). Using the approach based on SARIMA models in this work allowed us to obtain adequate models with good statistical and prognostic properties. The stationarity of processes was analyzed on the basis of the HEGY test. The indicators studied in the work had a number of features that must be taken into account when modeling. The series of the number of births and the number of deaths had second and first integration orders respectively and contained deterministic seasonality, the series of the number of marriages had the first integration order and seasonal integration, and the infant mortality series did not contain seasonality, which was confirmed based on the analysis of the autocorrelation function and periodogram. Point and interval estimates of the forecast for 2019 were built for all indicators here studied. To compare the quality of forecasting SARIMA models, seasonal Holt -Winters models were also evaluated.
The paper deals with the relation between traditional family norms and women’s age at first marriage. The study is based on data from Karachay-Cherkessia, a republic of the North Caucasus (Russia), and uses results of a survey among women of reproductive ages conducted there in 2018. It has been demonstrated that traditional family norms, including those empowering elder generations and limiting women’s social role to housework and bringing up children, are rather strong in that region. It is currently assumed that these norms generally correlate with women’s younger age at first marriage. However, our analysis of the data from Karachay-Cherkessia, which used proportional hazard models and logistic regressions, does not fit this assumption. Specifically, it turns out that precisely that ethnic group of Karachay-Cherkessia which shows a higher concentration of traditional family norms also demonstrates a statistically significant tendency towards women’s older age at first marriage. Thus the relation between traditional family norms and the timing of marriage appears to vary more across different societies than is supposed. The consequences of this result for the study of demographic transformations taking place in different countries and regions together with the breakdown of traditional family norms are discussed.
Quarantine measures in connection with the coronavirus pandemic have been accompanied by the closure of cross-border communications and restrictions on the activities of enterprises in most sectors of the economy. Labour migrants and their family members staying in Russia have found themselves in a difficult situation. The reduction in employment, primarily in areas where migrants work, has made foreign citizens one of the most vulnerable social groups. The first layer of questions discussed in the article is related to the assessment of the situation of migrants in Russia. In what types of economic activity has the decline in employment become particularly painful for migrants? What is their financial situation? How ready are they to leave Russia if transport links are restored? What are their immediate and long-term plans related to work and life in Russia? The second focus of the study is on potential migrants who were unable to enter Russia after international transport links were severed. What is their economic situation at home? How quickly will they go to Russia when restrictions on international travel are removed? What are their short - and longterm plans for staying in Russia? This article is based on an online survey of 2,695 foreign citizens (including 1,304 migrants in Russia and 1,391 outside Russia), as well as a telephone survey of 300 migrant workers in the Moscow megalopolis conducted in the first half of June 2020.
The book is devoted to issues of forecasting the size and structure of the Earth’s population until the end of the XXI century; it focuses on both the methodological aspects of making such demographic projections and on the consequences of various forecast scenarios for future trajectories of human development. The authors pay special attention to the level of education - in their opinion, the most significant component of human capital. At the same time, the educational structure of the population is not only a derivative of demographic changes and the pace of "education expansion" in various regions and countries of the world, but also itself has and will continue to have a significant impact on demographic processes. This is precisely the kind of defining impact education will have for the population of our planet in the 21st century.
One of the declared national goals of Russia's development is to increase life expectancy at birth to 80 years by 2030. To achieve this, it is important to understand life expectancy determinants that the government can influence. This paper aims to identify main determinants of life expectancy in groups of countries that differ in the level of life expectancy and show the place of Russia in this range. We use data on 82 countries and conduct descriptive, cluster, and correlation analysis. Our analysis shows that life expectancy in Russia is much lower than in countries with a comparable level of economic development and health care expenditures. Various factors affect public health in different ways depending on the countries' belonging to different clusters on life expectancy. These factors are development of the economy, including health care, urbanization, ecology, nutrition, and unhealthy lifestyles. In conclusion, we provide recommendations for the public policy.
Elevated mortality (compared to the West) and significant spatial differences in life expectancy are serious challenges facing Russia. Improving Russians' health and increasing life expectancy by reducing inequality in mortality between regions and settlements are closely intertwined with the goals of spatial development of Russia, aimed at reducing interregional differences in the quality of life.
This paper presents an assessment of the scope and dynamics of changes in mortality differences between the ‘center’ and the ‘periphery’ in 67 regions of Russia, which are home to three-quarters of the country's population. The selected research period - 2003-2018 - is characterized by a steady increase in life expectancy at birth (LE) in Russia. Using unpublished data from Rosstat for cities, we estimated life expectancy at birth in 67 regional centers and in the rest of the regions (‘periphery’). Depending on the magnitude of the differences in LE and the dynamics, we identified 6 types of regions. For the regions with the gap in LE between the center and the periphery larger than on average, the decomposition method was applied, which made it possible to determine the key age groups and causes of death responsible for such high differences.
In 36 regions of Russia classified as types I-III, the center-peripheral gap exceeded the average Russian level, while only in six regions in 2003-18 there was a tendency to reduce the size of this gap. The decomposition results showed that elevated mortality of males in the periphery is due to a higher mortality rate at working age from external causes of death, especially from traffic accidents, homicides and suicides, as well as from ‘alcoholic’ causes of death; females in the periphery suffer from higher mortality rate at older ages from chronic non-communicable diseases.
Despite the seemingly ‘objective’ nature of the mortality differences between the center and the periphery (the advantage of the former is due to the socio-demographic characteristics of its residents, the educational structure of the population, as well as selective migration), the positive experience of other countries shows that effective public health policies can significantly reduce the range of spatial inequality in mortality rates even if significant heterogeneity in the level of social-economic development of the territories persists.
The paper deals with different ‘local’ sources of data on the number of children and fertility in the Republic of Dagestan (North Caucasus, Russia). A study of ‘local’ sources on fertility in comparison with census data in Dagestan is necessary for two reasons. First, the region is known to have serious problems with official demographic statistics, so that all alternative sources should be considered. Second, different parts of Dagestan demonstrate outstanding diversity with respect to fertility, which needs to be studied and explained. The paper discusses the results of a field study undertaken in Dagestan in 2015. In the course of that study, data on the number of children born in different years between 2000 and 2014 were collected from local administrations, medical institutions and schools in ten villages of Dagestan. The data of the three sources never fully agreed with each other or with census data, but showed regular, statistically significant correspondences. We hypothesize about possible reasons for the differences between the data of the sources on the basis of our interviews with local officials in the villages under study. We argue that the data of medical institutions and schools should be the most reliable. We also compare data of local administrations and medical institutions on the number of women of different age groups and study the possibility of using these data for calculating fertility rates (crude birth rate, total fertility rate, etc.) for different parts of Dagestan, in order to establish the differences between their fertility dynamics.