This article presents the results of a study of corporate capital structure in emerging capital markets, taking into account the business cycles of the economy. Our study was conducted on the data of 581 companies from BRICS countries for the years 2002-2014. We revealed that the target capital structure is dependent on set of factors which is the same for both periods of economic growth and recession. The speed of adjustment to the target capital structure is dependent upon the stage of the business cycle of the economy and is higher for in economic growth periods. The study also found out that the direction of the impact of the determinants of the speed of adjustment varies depending on the state of the economy (the deviation from the target capital structure leads to an increase in the speed of adjustment in periods of growth and a fall - in times of recession).
The subject of this investigation is transparency and its impact on Russian companies’ performance. On the one hand, it is considered that high level of transparency reduces informational asymmetry, mitigates agency problem and adverse selection, and helps financial market to function efficiently. But Russia is a developing country with high level of corruption ( 154place in Corruption Perceptions Index 2010)and weak property rights protection. So it is costly to firms to have high level of disclosure quality because there is considerable probability of state interference in business in Russia. Thereby high level of disclosure is a trade-off between the benefits from investors’ confidence and the costs of potential expropriation by predatory government. The article considers review of transparency investigations, its impact on company performance depending on internal and external conditions, different ways to estimate transparency, it contains the results of panel regression analysis of transparency in Russia on the period 2009–2011. The investigation includes 129 largest Russian companies.
The necessity of deep understanding of high liquidity creation and liquidity management and awareness of factors’ determination, which have influence on liquidity buffer, created by the banks, open wide opportunities for research in this field. This paper empirically examines how internal bank characteristics and macroeconomic conditions affect high liquidity creation in the bank system. Using bank level data, we analyze the impact of different factors on liquidity buffer created by commercial banks. The regression results indicate that bank size and sustainability of banks’ sources reduce the amounts of liquid assets on the banks’ balance sheet. On the other hand, return on assets and credit risk ratios increase the size of liquidity buffer: banks are increasing loans’ volume and they are supposed to have high level of loan losses by trying to invest more resources in highly liquid assets. There is found no convincing statistical proof to the theoretical hypothesis that influence of an ownership of the bank (state owned or foreign) and deposit insurance coverage are significant. We find that macroeconomic conditions (GDP growth, funding rate, crisis) are also significant for Russian banks’ liquidity statement. The finding suggests that process of creation the liquidity buffer is procyclical: banks accumulate liquidity in times of economic recovery and are spending it during the crisis period. The assessment method and research results, elaborated by the authors, might be in a field of a practical interest for both liquidity bank management and a regulator, which is responsible for the whole stability of a bank sector.
We study share price performance at ex-dividend date, and its relation to trading volume and a set of factors corresponding to different explanatory theories. Among the investigated factors that may have impact on ex-dividend date share price, are dividend yield, capital gains tax rate and dividends tax rate, transaction costs, market microstructure characteristics, market stock risk, and disposition effect. The research was conducted with the panel data of companies from BRIC zone for the period 2005-2015. According to obtained results, dividend capturing and disposition effect theories are likely to have explanatory power for ex-day phenomenon for our sample. Tax theory and dividend clientele theory have not found empirical support.
The impact of mergers and acquisitions on company value is the topic for debate in financial academic literature for a long time. One of the major considerations in any M&A transaction that influence the performance of mergers and acquisitions is the method of payment. Based on the sample of 825 deals in BRICS countries that occur between 1999-2009 we find that motives underlying the method of payment in M&A deals are: acquirer’s cash availability, deal size, the percentage ownership of institutional shareholders in bidder’s equity, the dynamic of bidder’s market to book ratio, the acquired and already owned share of target company at the announcement date.
The research consists of defining the most suitable determinants of working capital for Russian companies and of testing these determinants on different life cycle stages that helps to optimize the working capital of companies, thereby improving their operational result. Research was conducted on Russian companies’ performance indicators of 2004-2013. Some determinants that appeared to be significant on developing markets, such as financial leverage, profitability, size and age of the organization were tested in the study.
M&A deals have always been the drivers of international business development. Growth of international M&A deals volume puts the scrutinized issue on the front burner. Under this article the key effectiveness determinants of international M&A deals with the participation of EU countries are analyzed on the data period from 2006 to 2014, excluding financial crisis. For international M&A deals research the following determinants are chosen on the basis of theoretical background: method of payment, friendliness or hostility of merger, belonging to the same industry, public or private status of the company, language differences, amount of M&A deals in the industry in the past year and financial leverage of the acquiring company. Method of CAR (Cumulated abnormal return) in the short-run period allows finding puzzling interconnections between dependent variable and the determinants of effectiveness. Different event-windows give the opportunity to analyze differences in CAR-values in 15 days before event, in the time of event and 15 days after event. Novelty of the paper lies in the division on the sample in clusters. Target-companies are all EU-residents on the moment of deal, but acquiring companies are divided into 3 groups by the country of residence: developed markets of USA and Canada, developing BRICS countries and developed countries of EU. Developed countries were graded to indicate advantages of European-zone residence. Whole sample analysis shows that significant factors are payment method and belonging to the same industry. Significance of dummy-variable «cluster» determines partial group analysis. International M&A deals effectiveness with USA and Canada is strongly influenced by method of payment – stocks and debt instruments increase CAR-value of the acquiring company. Belonging to the same industry, private status of the target-company and the same language positively influence M&A effectiveness. Belonging to the same industry and financial leverage of the acquiring-companies positively affect CAR in deals with developing markets of BRICS countries. The strongest negative effect is made by language differences. Analysis of EU acquiring companies shows the significance of the single variable – method of payment in all event – windows. As a result, payment with stocks increases CAR-value for the acquiring company in the short-run period. Keywords: M&A; effectiveness; CAR; developed markets; BRICS
In this paper we study the existence of a speculative bubble in the prices of the Russian telecommunications companies in the late 1990-s. In the study we use the regime-switching-type of econometric test that diagnoses the explosive pattern in the stock prices. Tests that compare series of prices and dividends are not applicable because most of the Russian quoted telecom companies did not pay dividends at that time. The tests did not reject the hypothesis of the existence of the bubble in the prices of shares of all Russian telecommunication companies except one and in the index of the Russian telecoms. The existence of the bubble was confirmed by the presence of its indirect indicators, namely rapid price growth and abnormal cumulative return before the price peak, too optimistic perception of news related to telecoms, deep correction and lengthy recovery after the crash. From 1998 to 2000 the prices of the Russian telecom companies grew in line with the Russian stock market, the correlation coefficient being 0,95. The telecoms index broke away from the general stock market only in the 1Q of 2000. We also tested whether the bubble in the Russian telecommunication companies stock market was a result of contagion from the NASDAQ market or it was caused by the revival of the Russian stock market after the 1998 crisis. The same was studied with respect to the crash of the bubble. We analyzed the dynamics of the correlation coefficients between the markets. This methodology implies that the markets become more interdependent and the contagion takes place if the correlation increases after the shock. No contagion effect was diagnosed. The indirect indication of the fact that no contagion took place is the date of the peak of the Russian telecoms index. It was reached 19 days after the NASDAQ peak. The speculative bubble on the Russian telecommunication stock market was determined by the events in the Russian stock market, but was influenced by news and attitudes toward telecommunications stocks in the USA.
Article studies questions of security design and deal structuring in infrastructure projects accounting for high uncertainty, capital intensity and low liquidity of such investments. As a result, we draw some interesting conclusions concerning the public leverage maximization and analytically show the power of conscious transferring of particular rights to private investors as the substitutes for direct cash infusions.
The chief aim of this paper is to analyse dynamics of linear and non-linear methods to predict bankruptcy for Russian private small and medium-sized retail and wholesale trade companies. We use financial and non-financial data prior and subsequent to the economic crisis of 2008—2009. We use the following methods: logistic regression and random forest.
This research will be of vital importance especially to banks and other credit organisations providing loans to small and medium businesses.
Our dataset comprises from 200,000 to 600,000 companies depending on specific year. We use data from the Ruslana database which covers the period from 2004 to 2012.
The definition of default is extended to financial difficulties by adding voluntary liquidated firms to those liquidated as a result of legal bankruptcy. We study active companies and two types of liquidated ones.
Heterogeneity of Russian companies is taken into account in several ways. In addition to financial ratios derived from financial statements we include non-financial variables such as regional distribution, age, size and legal form into statistical models.
Evaluation of the prediction performance is done with the help of out-of-sample forecasts. We obtain models with quite high predictive power, area under ROC curve reaches 0.75. Random forest outperformed logit-model. Adding non-financial information such as age and federal region leads to the improved forecasts while legal form and size do not have a great impact on the outcome. Among financial measures liquidity, profitability and leverage ratios turned out to be essential. Moreover, our models captured a structural change which was likely to be caused by the crisis of 2008—2009.
In the article reveals an influence of various stages of life cycle of the company on its investment activity. For this purpose it is necessary to follow the dynamics of a life cycle of the separate organization and to find new approaches tin the management policy of the company. The article contains the description of features of a corporate investment policy for each stage of life cycle, the phase of revival of business is separately considered. The methodological basis of research is presented, the constructed models are empirically tested.
Target company valuation in mergers and acquisition (M&A) deal can depend on the type of the acquirer. There is a prevalent opinion that strategic investors pay more for the target company shares than financial investors, which usually pay less. In this article we use regression analysis in order to examine this hypothesis. We take EV/EBITDA deal multiple as a dependent variable in the model. Our analysis shows that hypothesis cannot be rejected. Thus owners of the target companies should consider strategic investors as preferred option in M&A deal, since they can pay more.
The paper discusses the negative consequences of financial bubbles and the advisability of their monetary regulation. Pros and cons of possible responces of monetary authorities on the formation of a financial bubble and of possbile behavior of the regulator while a bubble collapses are analysed based on the availability and effectiveness of the regulatory instruments, possible negative consequences and externalities of different tactics, and the abilities of the regulator to indentify bubbles.
The article discusses the negative consequences of financial bubbles and the appropriateness of the monetary regulation thereof. The pros and cons of the monetary authorities' possible responses to financial bubbles and the options for the regulator's behavior during the inevitable collapse of the bubble are analyzed based on the availability and effectiveness of the regulatory instruments, possible negative consequences and externalities of different tactics and the ability of the regulator to spot the bubble.