Population ageing is forcing researchers throughout the world to study more closely the economic activity of pensioners. In Russia in the last few years pensioner employment has demonstrated significant growth, while economic activity of the working age population has remained stable. This fact requires further investigation. One of the sources that can shed light on the trends in pensioners’ employment activity is data from The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE). In this paper we use data from the Russian Statistical Office (Rosstat) and RLMS-HSE to analyze the trends of older people’s employment activity from the statutory age of retirement (55 for women and 60 for men) until age 70. We show that the recent increase in economic activity was typical for Russian pensioners of all age groups, but the highest growth was recorded for females 60-64 years old. The paper also reveals that among all working pensioners the share of those employed in education, healthcare, science, housing services, The ministry of internal affairs and the military-industrial sector – economic sectors where the role of the state is predominant – has increased for the period under review. Hence the most popular career options for those working at pension age are either to keep their previous job in the above-mentioned industries, or to change jobs, often for a less demanding position and/or informal employment. Unlike developed countries, the increase of economic activity of Russian pensioners has not been driven by increased flexibility of the labor market. Neither the share of self-employed nor the share of part-time employed pensioners increased in the period under study.
More than half of all deaths in Russia in 2011-2014 were subjected to pathologic or forensic autopsy, as a result of which the cause of death was not identified for 3.8 percent of the cases. More than 147,000 unproductive autopsies which left the cause of death unknown were carried out. Such a large number of cases cannot be explained by the state of the cadavers at the moment of the autopsy. Another 161,000 deaths (4.1% of autopsies) were classified as events of undetermined intent. This paper attempts to find a rational explanation for such a high proportion of uncertain autopsy conclusions concerning the cause of death. The methods applied include an analysis at the macro-level (regions), with the help of factor analysis and clustering techniques, and multinomial logistic regression at the micro-level, using anonymous individual records. The study is based entirely on Russian state statistics data. There are large interregional differences in the practices of determining the cause of death based on autopsy. Practices of diagnosing external causes also vary greatly by region. In regions where the proportion of unspecified causes is higher, the share of events of undetermined intent is also higher. These differences are not connected with the peculiarities of mortality in each region. The analysis suggests that the large number of cases in which the cause of death remains unknown after an autopsy is due to the lack of incentives to clarify the cause of death after the issuance of the preliminary medical death certificate. Moreover, the existing system of relations between forensic bureaus and law-enforcement agencies makes no provision for apprising forensics experts of the final conclusions concerning the external causes of death. From 2011 to 2014 the number of forensic autopsies of persons who had died from disease increased by 20 percent, but there are doubts that the information obtained as a result of the autopsies is effectively used by the health care system.
Using two representative for Russia surveys (“Person, Family, Society” for research models building and “RLMS-HSE” for auxiliary, descriptive analysis), we analyzed the differences in the life courses of Russian men who served and did not serve in the army. For these two groups of men, we compared the ages and sequences of the most important starting events (separation from parental home, first job, obtaining an education of highest level, first cohabitation, first marriage, and first child). We constructed socio-demographic events for these men at the age of 15 and at the moment of the survey “Person, Family, Society).
Our results revealed that the ones who served in the military have more socio-economic and demographic events than those who avoided military service: men with military experience start adult life earlier and more intensively. The mechanism of the selection to the military services changed: since the 1990s, served men are mainly children of parents who did not get higher education and did not occupy senior positions in the period of their children socialization. After dismissal from military service, men often work and live separately, while avoided the army study and live with parents.
The statistics of long-term internal migration in 2011 underwent serious changes related to the inclusion of persons registered not only at their place of residence, but also at their place of stay for a period of 9 months or more. As a result of these changes, a migrant whose registration has expired is immediately considered to have returned to his place of origin. This reform of statistical accounting has led to a sharp increase in the number of registered migrants and to a change in the structural characteristics of migration flows. The article analyzes the consequences of the appearance of a new category - “returning after a temporary absence” - in the statistics of internal migration. The research also reveals the problems of assessing the extent of migration, its directions and the impact of migration on the population of certain territories of the country. In addition, it is proved that the existing methodology of statistical accounting distorts the structural characteristics of migration, especially at young ages.
The paper regards an association between conception and official marriage registration in Russian women’s life course. Authors use 2010 vital statistics database on births for a set of regions to analyze marriage registration rates at different months of pregnancy or before it. The study reveals differences in the marital behavior in a state of pregnancy within age groups and also within regions. A registration of out-of-wedlock births basing on joint parent’s application as well as association between this type of conduct and parent’s age gain special attention within this paper. Furthermore, authors examine dynamics of women’s family status during five years after the birth of the first child using 2010 Census data. Results of the study reveal that in Russia high popularity of legitimated births, i.e. marriages set after confirmed pregnancies, persists until now. Age structure of spouses in this type of families and its higher prevalence among first marriages prove this type of wedlock to be a marker of traditionalist demographic behavior. The same hypothesis is supported by the observed high break-up rate amidst recently married couples with young children.
This article is devoted to the issue of assistance to the elderly from the interfamily support network and the participation of the elderly in interfamily exchanges. Data of representative surveys (RLMS-HSE, 2013, Integrated monitoring of population life conditions in Russia, 2011) show the importance of relatives’ support for older people. Relatives provide not only material aid which significantly exceeds the amount of social aid, but also a broad array of necessary services including psychological support in adapting to a new stage of the life cycle after finishing labor activity.
We define the target group of our study and its socio-demographic characteristics, including the distinguishing features of regional location. The main focus of the study is the most vulnerable group of older people: persons living alone and married couples living apart. Due to underdevelopment of the service industry for the elderly, support aid from relatives and neighbors is vital for this group of older people.
After a long period of decline, life expectancy in Russia has substantially increased since 2004 to recent times. Thus, this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. The study is a systematic analysis of this positive trend. We use decomposition techniques to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained between 2003 and 2012. Using the same method, the major components of the remaining gap between Russia and most developed countries in life expectancy are identified. Some new features of improvements of recent years in comparison with changes in mortality in the 1990s and early 2000s are revealed. The accelerated reduction of infant mortality and reduced mortality from tuberculosis, diabetes and other avoidable causes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. However, the main components of the new growth in life expectancy are mostly attributable to the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions and violence. At older ages, especially significant was the decline in female mortality from cerebrovascular disease. The gap in the expected lifetime between Russia and most of the developed countries is still quite elevated, and mortality from cardiovascular diseases and many external causes remains at a record high. The question, however, of whether such progress can be sustained remains an open one. Of particular concern is the noted recent reduction of federal budget expenditures on health.
Usually in rich countries life expectancy is higher than in poor countries. We checked whether this is true for the regions of Russia.
The object of the study was data for 2010, which is the year of the last population census. We used life expectancy at birth as longevity measure and the value of gross domestic product per capita in US dollars at purchasing power parity is used as the welfare measure.
The analysis is based on a comparison of regional data with the Preston curve that describes relationship between per capita GDP and life expectancy at birth. The curve was also determined for 2010 based on data from 57 countries, where population statistics are suitable for the calculation of life table.
We found that life expectancy in Russia is substantially below the level that the Preston's model predicts for Russian on the basis of the Russia’s GDP per capita. In 2010, the difference between the model and real life expectancy was 8.7 years and was the highest among the 57 countries involved in the calculation.
The dependence of life expectancy on economic situation in regions is practically nonexistent. The illusion of interdependence exists because Moscow stands out among other regions with high GDP and high life expectancy. However life expectancy in 2010 in Moscow was significantly lower than the level predicted by the Preston's model. In authors; opinion, the lack of communication is explained by the fact that in regions with high GDP, the level of economic inequality is also high. High incomes of a small part of the population can raise the average level of economic indicators in the region, but a lower mortality in a small group has little effect on life expectancy of total population.
The article examines the evolution of the demographic structure of households in Russia based on a detailed analysis of national population censuses and micro-censuses for a long time series and a comparison of census data for different years. It is noted that, due to the fact that the object of Soviet censuses was the family, while the object of post-Soviet censuses is the household, there are certain limitations on analysis of a long time series for Russia. At the same time, the focus on the household in Russian censuses makes it possible to compare them with the statistics of households in many foreign countries. The main trends in the size and structure of households in Russia are revealed based on the data of population censuses and population micro-censuses. A comparative analysis between the structure of households in Russia and those in foreign countries (European countries and the USA) is made. It is shown that, despite the decrease in the average household size and the growth in the share of single households, the share of extended households in Russia is still much higher than in Europe and the USA. The structure of Russian households is characterized by a relatively low proportion of married couples without children and a high proportion of single-parent family households (especially of single-parent families within complex households).
The point of view of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the birth rate. Do demographers have strong bases to support the increased optimism that demonstrated today by politicians and administrators of different levels? According to the author, there are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in the previous issue, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which presented in this issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.
The idea of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the rise of fertility level. The author's viewpoint is more reserved. There are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in this issue of the Journal, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which will be presented in the next issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.
The paper is devoted to a comparison of mortality by cause of death in Moscow and other megacities of the world in the period after 1990. The selection of megacities was determined by the availability of detailed mortality data in the period under consideration. The objects of our comparison are data for Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Singapore, St. Petersburg, and Tokyo. Mortality from major groups of causes of death are considered, including cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the respiratory and digestive organs, infections and some others. The analysis uses standardized mortality rates by cause of death.
The mortality level in Moscow is significantly lower than in the majority of regions of Russia, but is still substantially higher than in foreign megacities. Due to a big lag at the beginning of the period, the mortality level in Moscow nowadays is higher than in all considered foreign megalopolises in the year 2000. Where Moscow’s mortality level most lags behind others is in mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes. Moscow's successes in reducing mortality in 2000-2014 are very impressive. However, it is difficult to predict how events will unfold in the deteriorating economic situation.
The article looks at different approaches (the "new phase" of the epidemiologic transition, "the second epidemiologic revolution", a "health transition") to conceptualization of the present stage of mortality reduction, in which noncommunicable diseases and causes of death resulting from external sources come to the fore. At this stage, which has lasted for at least half a century, revolutionary changes have taken place in most developed countries. These changes manifest themselves in the drastic expansion of control over non-infectious causes of death, particularly over diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and other noncommunicable diseases, as well as over external causes of death. The consequence of these changes has been the rapid shift of deaths from the abovementioned causes to older ages, an increase in the mean age of death from them and, ultimately, a significant rise in life expectancy. Meanwhile, Russia has been mostly unaffected by these changes and has failed to provide the necessary growth of control over noncommunicable causes of death. The age distribution of deaths from major classes of causes of death in Russia over the past half-century has not changed, leading to a stagnation in life expectancy and to an increasing lag behind the majority of developed countries with respect to this indicator. "The second epidemiologic revolution" in Russia is still a matter for the future.
Infant mortality in Russia has been decreasing for several decades. But in 2011 Russia’s infant mortality rate reached a level (7.4 per 1000 live births) more than three times higher than in countries with minimal levels. In April 2012, Russia adopted new definitions of live and stillbirths, which are much closer to the corresponding WHO definitions than those used before.
The transition to these new definitions was meant to increase the rates of perinatal, early neonatal and infant mortality in general for children weighing up to 1000 grams - those concerned by the changed definition.
This paper analyzes the changes in the structure and dynamics of death in children under 1 year of age since the transition to the new definitions of live and stillbirths, according to birth weight and period of death based on official and medical statistics. It looks at the possibility of distortion of both infant and perinatal mortality and their components.
High premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its long-term adverse trends are one of the main reasons for Russia's lagging behind the developed countries in life expectancy, especially the female population. Despite the mortality decline since 2003, CVD mortality rates at particular ages (30-74 years for men and 30-49 for women) are still higher than they were in 1970. Analysis of long-term changes in life expectancy in Russia shows a negative contribution of changes in CVD mortality for men (-1.0 years in 1972-2010) and a small positive contribution for women (0.7 years in 1972-2010). The mortality structure within the class of cardiovascular diseases in Russia is significantly different from that observed in those countries with the lowest level of CVD mortality. Ischemic heart disease constitutes more than half of all deaths, and this share, in contrast to Western countries, tends to be on the rise. Second place belongs to deaths from cerebrovascular diseases, the share of which is declining, but remains significantly higher than in Western countries. The share of deaths from all other cardiovascular diseases accounts for about 50% of deaths in Western countries, while in Russia it accounts for only about 15%, but is characterized by a very low age at death. Regional patterns of CVD mortality in Russia are discussed, as well as the quality of statistics on causes of death and the changes in coding practices in the Russian Federation.
The article discusses the long-term dynamics (since 1956) of mortality from external causes of death in Russia. Russia has long lagged behind developed countries in terms of the level of mortality from external causes of death, which continues to remain high, as does the structure of such mortality, whose archaism is reflected in the large contribution of homicides, alcohol poisoning and injuries of undetermined intent.
On the basis of life tables, a calculation is made of excess deaths (dx) in Russia compared with Western European countries. It is shown that in Russia the greatest excess losses are associated with mortality from poisonings among both sexes, suicide among men and murder among women.
Mortality from external causes, along with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, has had a significant impact on life expectancy. In general, in the period 1956-2012, the increase in mortality from external causes in the 15-64 age group reduced life expectancy for males by 2.6 years and women by 0.7 years.
The decline, starting in 2003, of mortality from external causes of death has slightly reduced the gap between Russia and developed countries, bringing Russia closer to the levels of mortality reached in the mid-1960s and 1980s. However, given the fluctuations of mortality from external causes, it is premature to say whether the current decline in mortality is a stable trend.
In Moscow, the number of fatalities in road traffic accidents (RTA) in 2016 was, according to police data, 561 people, while Rosstat, using the WHO approach for grouping ICD-10 transport-related codes, puts the number at 790, or 40% higher. Since reliable data are crucial for estimating road traffic mortality and developing effective road safety measures, it is important to understand the reasons for the discrepancy in the two data sources. The main aim of the research is to identify and quantify the factors causing this discrepancy by linking individual records of those who died in RTA in Moscow in 2016. Mortality statistics (1,891,016 death records) and police data on 20,302 road traffic fatalities in Russia in 2016 were used in the research. Both data sources were individual non-personalized records.
As a result of the linkage, 944 records were obtained with Moscow mentioned in at least one of the two data sources; of these, 699 records can be regarded as matched, 245 as non-matched. Of the 561 police records, 84.1% were linked with death records; of the 790 deaths records, 80.3% were linked with police data.
In 6% of linked death and police records the ICD-10 codes used are not part of the codes used by the WHO. In 35% of the linked records, the region of registration of the accident was different from the region of registration of the death.