This article is devoted to the issue of assistance to the elderly from the interfamily support network and the participation of the elderly in interfamily exchanges. Data of representative surveys (RLMS-HSE, 2013, Integrated monitoring of population life conditions in Russia, 2011) show the importance of relatives’ support for older people. Relatives provide not only material aid which significantly exceeds the amount of social aid, but also a broad array of necessary services including psychological support in adapting to a new stage of the life cycle after finishing labor activity.
We define the target group of our study and its socio-demographic characteristics, including the distinguishing features of regional location. The main focus of the study is the most vulnerable group of older people: persons living alone and married couples living apart. Due to underdevelopment of the service industry for the elderly, support aid from relatives and neighbors is vital for this group of older people.
After a long period of decline, life expectancy in Russia has substantially increased since 2004 to recent times. Thus, this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. The study is a systematic analysis of this positive trend. We use decomposition techniques to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained between 2003 and 2012. Using the same method, the major components of the remaining gap between Russia and most developed countries in life expectancy are identified. Some new features of improvements of recent years in comparison with changes in mortality in the 1990s and early 2000s are revealed. The accelerated reduction of infant mortality and reduced mortality from tuberculosis, diabetes and other avoidable causes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. However, the main components of the new growth in life expectancy are mostly attributable to the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions and violence. At older ages, especially significant was the decline in female mortality from cerebrovascular disease. The gap in the expected lifetime between Russia and most of the developed countries is still quite elevated, and mortality from cardiovascular diseases and many external causes remains at a record high. The question, however, of whether such progress can be sustained remains an open one. Of particular concern is the noted recent reduction of federal budget expenditures on health.
Usually in rich countries life expectancy is higher than in poor countries. We checked whether this is true for the regions of Russia.
The object of the study was data for 2010, which is the year of the last population census. We used life expectancy at birth as longevity measure and the value of gross domestic product per capita in US dollars at purchasing power parity is used as the welfare measure.
The analysis is based on a comparison of regional data with the Preston curve that describes relationship between per capita GDP and life expectancy at birth. The curve was also determined for 2010 based on data from 57 countries, where population statistics are suitable for the calculation of life table.
We found that life expectancy in Russia is substantially below the level that the Preston's model predicts for Russian on the basis of the Russia’s GDP per capita. In 2010, the difference between the model and real life expectancy was 8.7 years and was the highest among the 57 countries involved in the calculation.
The dependence of life expectancy on economic situation in regions is practically nonexistent. The illusion of interdependence exists because Moscow stands out among other regions with high GDP and high life expectancy. However life expectancy in 2010 in Moscow was significantly lower than the level predicted by the Preston's model. In authors; opinion, the lack of communication is explained by the fact that in regions with high GDP, the level of economic inequality is also high. High incomes of a small part of the population can raise the average level of economic indicators in the region, but a lower mortality in a small group has little effect on life expectancy of total population.
The article examines the evolution of the demographic structure of households in Russia based on a detailed analysis of national population censuses and micro-censuses for a long time series and a comparison of census data for different years. It is noted that, due to the fact that the object of Soviet censuses was the family, while the object of post-Soviet censuses is the household, there are certain limitations on analysis of a long time series for Russia. At the same time, the focus on the household in Russian censuses makes it possible to compare them with the statistics of households in many foreign countries. The main trends in the size and structure of households in Russia are revealed based on the data of population censuses and population micro-censuses. A comparative analysis between the structure of households in Russia and those in foreign countries (European countries and the USA) is made. It is shown that, despite the decrease in the average household size and the growth in the share of single households, the share of extended households in Russia is still much higher than in Europe and the USA. The structure of Russian households is characterized by a relatively low proportion of married couples without children and a high proportion of single-parent family households (especially of single-parent families within complex households).
The point of view of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the birth rate. Do demographers have strong bases to support the increased optimism that demonstrated today by politicians and administrators of different levels? According to the author, there are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in the previous issue, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which presented in this issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.
The idea of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the rise of fertility level. The author's viewpoint is more reserved. There are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in this issue of the Journal, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which will be presented in the next issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.
The paper is devoted to a comparison of mortality by cause of death in Moscow and other megacities of the world in the period after 1990. The selection of megacities was determined by the availability of detailed mortality data in the period under consideration. The objects of our comparison are data for Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Singapore, St. Petersburg, and Tokyo. Mortality from major groups of causes of death are considered, including cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the respiratory and digestive organs, infections and some others. The analysis uses standardized mortality rates by cause of death.
The mortality level in Moscow is significantly lower than in the majority of regions of Russia, but is still substantially higher than in foreign megacities. Due to a big lag at the beginning of the period, the mortality level in Moscow nowadays is higher than in all considered foreign megalopolises in the year 2000. Where Moscow’s mortality level most lags behind others is in mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes. Moscow's successes in reducing mortality in 2000-2014 are very impressive. However, it is difficult to predict how events will unfold in the deteriorating economic situation.
The article looks at different approaches (the "new phase" of the epidemiologic transition, "the second epidemiologic revolution", a "health transition") to conceptualization of the present stage of mortality reduction, in which noncommunicable diseases and causes of death resulting from external sources come to the fore. At this stage, which has lasted for at least half a century, revolutionary changes have taken place in most developed countries. These changes manifest themselves in the drastic expansion of control over non-infectious causes of death, particularly over diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and other noncommunicable diseases, as well as over external causes of death. The consequence of these changes has been the rapid shift of deaths from the abovementioned causes to older ages, an increase in the mean age of death from them and, ultimately, a significant rise in life expectancy. Meanwhile, Russia has been mostly unaffected by these changes and has failed to provide the necessary growth of control over noncommunicable causes of death. The age distribution of deaths from major classes of causes of death in Russia over the past half-century has not changed, leading to a stagnation in life expectancy and to an increasing lag behind the majority of developed countries with respect to this indicator. "The second epidemiologic revolution" in Russia is still a matter for the future.
Infant mortality in Russia has been decreasing for several decades. But in 2011 Russia’s infant mortality rate reached a level (7.4 per 1000 live births) more than three times higher than in countries with minimal levels. In April 2012, Russia adopted new definitions of live and stillbirths, which are much closer to the corresponding WHO definitions than those used before.
The transition to these new definitions was meant to increase the rates of perinatal, early neonatal and infant mortality in general for children weighing up to 1000 grams - those concerned by the changed definition.
This paper analyzes the changes in the structure and dynamics of death in children under 1 year of age since the transition to the new definitions of live and stillbirths, according to birth weight and period of death based on official and medical statistics. It looks at the possibility of distortion of both infant and perinatal mortality and their components.
High premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its long-term adverse trends are one of the main reasons for Russia's lagging behind the developed countries in life expectancy, especially the female population. Despite the mortality decline since 2003, CVD mortality rates at particular ages (30-74 years for men and 30-49 for women) are still higher than they were in 1970. Analysis of long-term changes in life expectancy in Russia shows a negative contribution of changes in CVD mortality for men (-1.0 years in 1972-2010) and a small positive contribution for women (0.7 years in 1972-2010). The mortality structure within the class of cardiovascular diseases in Russia is significantly different from that observed in those countries with the lowest level of CVD mortality. Ischemic heart disease constitutes more than half of all deaths, and this share, in contrast to Western countries, tends to be on the rise. Second place belongs to deaths from cerebrovascular diseases, the share of which is declining, but remains significantly higher than in Western countries. The share of deaths from all other cardiovascular diseases accounts for about 50% of deaths in Western countries, while in Russia it accounts for only about 15%, but is characterized by a very low age at death. Regional patterns of CVD mortality in Russia are discussed, as well as the quality of statistics on causes of death and the changes in coding practices in the Russian Federation.
The article discusses the long-term dynamics (since 1956) of mortality from external causes of death in Russia. Russia has long lagged behind developed countries in terms of the level of mortality from external causes of death, which continues to remain high, as does the structure of such mortality, whose archaism is reflected in the large contribution of homicides, alcohol poisoning and injuries of undetermined intent.
On the basis of life tables, a calculation is made of excess deaths (dx) in Russia compared with Western European countries. It is shown that in Russia the greatest excess losses are associated with mortality from poisonings among both sexes, suicide among men and murder among women.
Mortality from external causes, along with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, has had a significant impact on life expectancy. In general, in the period 1956-2012, the increase in mortality from external causes in the 15-64 age group reduced life expectancy for males by 2.6 years and women by 0.7 years.
The decline, starting in 2003, of mortality from external causes of death has slightly reduced the gap between Russia and developed countries, bringing Russia closer to the levels of mortality reached in the mid-1960s and 1980s. However, given the fluctuations of mortality from external causes, it is premature to say whether the current decline in mortality is a stable trend.
In Moscow, the number of fatalities in road traffic accidents (RTA) in 2016 was, according to police data, 561 people, while Rosstat, using the WHO approach for grouping ICD-10 transport-related codes, puts the number at 790, or 40% higher. Since reliable data are crucial for estimating road traffic mortality and developing effective road safety measures, it is important to understand the reasons for the discrepancy in the two data sources. The main aim of the research is to identify and quantify the factors causing this discrepancy by linking individual records of those who died in RTA in Moscow in 2016. Mortality statistics (1,891,016 death records) and police data on 20,302 road traffic fatalities in Russia in 2016 were used in the research. Both data sources were individual non-personalized records.
As a result of the linkage, 944 records were obtained with Moscow mentioned in at least one of the two data sources; of these, 699 records can be regarded as matched, 245 as non-matched. Of the 561 police records, 84.1% were linked with death records; of the 790 deaths records, 80.3% were linked with police data.
In 6% of linked death and police records the ICD-10 codes used are not part of the codes used by the WHO. In 35% of the linked records, the region of registration of the accident was different from the region of registration of the death.
Deaths due to injuries and poisoning which experts could not identify as homicide, suicide or accident are registered in statistics as deaths due to an event of undetermined intent. The proportion of such deaths can indicate the quality of the statistics of causes of death, above all of the statistics of intentional self-harms and assaults. In Russia, the proportion of deaths due to events of undetermined intent among other external causes has been growing for almost four decades. Such a trend was observed in the past during periods of growing mortality of external causes. Yet the steady and long decline in mortality from external causes in Russia that began in 2003 has not stopped the trend. The pushing aside of other external causes continues, though mortality from events of undetermined intent has exceeded both suicide and homicide mortality, and its proportion has increased tenfold, reaching very high levels relative to other countries. In a number of studies done in Russia over the past decade it was argued that such a high proportion depends largely on manipulations with statistics of mortality from external causes, the so-called conversion of socially important causes of death to a latent form.
Based on a review of relevant research and long-term trends of mortality from external causes in Russia and in a selected set of developed countries, the factors behind the persistent rise of the proportion of deaths due to events of undetermined intent are analysed. This makes it possible to expand the contextual framework of the discussion about the factors of the persistent growth of this ‘technical’ indicator and about the hypothesis of the ‘natural’ character of such dynamics.
Russia’s age-specific mortality pattern due to external causes differs substantially from those observed in other developed countries. One of its distinctive features is rather low mortality at older ages. A comparison of mortality rates due to certain groups of causes falling into the category of “External causes of morbidity and mortality” shows that low mortality due to external causes at older ages in Russia is the result of specific coding practices for fall-related deaths. Mortality due to other groups of external causes in Russia, however, is high compared to other countries.
Mortality due to external causes at older ages has specific features that distinguish it from younger age groups. This manifests itself both in significant changes of the mortality structure within the category of “External causes of morbidity and mortality” appearing with age and in risk factors specific to the elderly population.
This article presents a brief analysis of elderly mortality in Russia due to certain groups of external causes, a study of current trends and a comparison with some other developed countries. The analysis concerned two age groups: 60-74 years and 75 years and older. This made it possible to identify specific characteristics of mortality due to external causes separately for the young and older elderly.
The article presents a detailed description of global remittance trends and the factors influencing them. The authors focus on recent changes among leading countries in the sending and receiving of remittances and analyze the reasons for these changes. Moreover, the article sheds light on the role of remittances in the socio-economic development of poor countries. The article begins with an analysis of the sources of remittances, as there have been recent conceptual changes in the methods of calculating these flows. The authors pay special attention to money remittances in Russia and the factors of discrepancies between remittances as calculated by Central Bank and World Bank methodologies.
According to the May Presidential Decree (2018), one of the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 is “ensuring sustainable natural growth in the population of the Russian Federation and increasing life expectancy to 78 years”. Thus, the increased need to monitor the current demographic situation, the study of the structure of demographic indicators, and the close attention of the community to the realization of national goals led to the choice of the topic of this study. The paper studies the problems of modeling the seasonality of demographic indicators in the Russian Federation (the number of births, the number of deaths, infant mortality, the number of marriages) according to monthly data of Rosstat for the period 2007-2018. Foreign studies have shown that, along with traditional demographic methods, ARIMA models give good results in forecasting of demographic indicators (population size, birth and death rates, life expectancy). Using the approach based on SARIMA models in this work allowed us to obtain adequate models with good statistical and prognostic properties. The stationarity of processes was analyzed on the basis of the HEGY test. The indicators studied in the work had a number of features that must be taken into account when modeling. The series of the number of births and the number of deaths had second and first integration orders respectively and contained deterministic seasonality, the series of the number of marriages had the first integration order and seasonal integration, and the infant mortality series did not contain seasonality, which was confirmed based on the analysis of the autocorrelation function and periodogram. Point and interval estimates of the forecast for 2019 were built for all indicators here studied. To compare the quality of forecasting SARIMA models, seasonal Holt -Winters models were also evaluated.