This article is devoted to the dynamics of the mean age of child-bearing in Dagestan, an indicator which has differed significantly from the overall Russian trend within the last decade. The paper is based both on data from official sources and preliminary results from field research conducted by the authors in the rural areas of Dagestan. The data from both sources strongly supports the idea of a decrease in the childbearing age in the republic both for the mean age of childbearing (MAB) without parities and for the mean age of childbearing at first and second births.
The existing literature highlights, among others, two main factors inhibiting the increase of the MAB usually expected with a decrease of the total fertility rate. These are, first of all, the important role of religion (mainly Islam) in the society, and secondly, the “patriarchal” structure of the family. Our preliminary results lead us to the conclusion that the first factor is more important.
The last few years have seen a significant growth of interest in UN population projections. The latest such projection made by the UN Population Division was published in 2017, and is, on the whole, in agreement both with previous UN projections and projections conducted by other institutions. According to the 2017 Revision, world population size will reach 9.772 billion persons in 2050 and 11.184 billion in 2100. However, these dry figures themselves cannot explain the appearance of harsh criticism of these projections. This paper aims to get a better grip on the real reason for this criticism – the new methods used in these projections and their significant reworking, or the results themselves. For this purpose, an analysis is made of the recent UN projections, their methods, the data used, and the results of projections made in the last 15 years. Shortcomings of the UN projections are discussed, as well as the limitations and conditionality of their possible use. It is shown that among the possible reasons for an increase in projected world population, the most significant ones include: 1) the overestimate of projected infant and child mortality in previous projections, and 2) the underestimate of the rate of fertility decline in several African countries. It is argued that short-term population projections should be trusted and may be used for practical purposes, while the conditionality of applying long-term projections, for which there are multiple possible unpredictable factors of future demographic development, significantly reduces their precision. For particular countries, a great uncertainty of long-term projection may be caused by a sharp change in population policy or sociopolitical organization. This is illustrated by examples for several countries.
Preserving and strengthening the health of population is designated by the development priorities in the State program "Social and economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020". The article attempts to assess trends in life expectancy, mortality from the main causes of death and infant mortality in one of the largest regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation - the Arkhangelsk region. It also presents the differentiation of mortality from the main groups of causes of death, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the respiratory and digestive systems, infectious diseases and some other causes in Arkhangelsk, Severodvinsk and other cities and rural areas. The analysis is based on the standardized death rate (SDR) by causes of death.
The mortality rate in the Arkhangelsk region is higher than the average Russian indicators, especially for men. The lowest mortality is observed in Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk, slightly higher in medium and small cities and significantly higher in rural areas.
The structure of causes of death in all groups of settlements is more than 80% determined by CVD, neoplasms and external causes, but there is a small decrease in the proportion of CVD and external causes and a more significant increase in neoplasms. Arkhangelsk is characterized by a higher level of SDR from malignant tumors. Mortality from external causes is characterized by significant differentiation by groups of settlements. However, SDR from accidental alcohol poisoning in all groups is on the same level
Moscow is the region with the highest life expectancy in Russia. The country’s largest city, it has high incomes, a special population structure and a high concentration of all resources, including in the healthcare sector, which is given special attention by the city authorities. In some periods, the changes in life expectancy in Moscow have been unique compared to most other regions of Russia. The difference in life expectancy between Moscow and Russia in the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s was mainly due to lower mortality in middle age. Since the mid-2000s, the main contribution to the difference in life expectancy has been shifting to old age mortality. Given the overall rapid decline of mortality in Moscow since then, changes in the mortality rates and life expectancy of certain age groups seem implausible. The quality of population and mortality data has a significant impact on the accuracy of estimates of mortality indicators and requires special attention in the case of Moscow. In particular, the number of people at advanced ages in Moscow is likely to be overestimated, which affects mortality rates in this age group. Peculiarities of mortality by causes of death in Moscow generally correspond to the average Russian trends; however, in Moscow a more rapid decrease in mortality from neoplasms is observed, as well as more realistic age-specific death rates in older age groups.
The article aims to evaluate the possible motivational potential (in terms of having more children than planned) of various measures of family policy listed in the questionnaire of the Russian Microcensus-2015. During the last several decades, fertility in Russia has been below the level of simple reproduction. The state, starting in 2005, has expressed an interest in finding effective measures to raise fertility in the country. The latest Microcensus had, among other objectives, the goal of “testing” the attractiveness of different policy measures for the general population. These included both already existing policies (federal and regional “maternity capitals”, land grants) and those which were hypothetical at the moment (prolongation of paid childcare leave until the child reaches the age of three, a guaranteed place in kindergarten, benefits equal to the cost of living for every child starting from the third, tax benefits, flexible working hours/work from home, and interest-free loans for the purchase of housing).
This paper aims to estimate the cancer mortality and morbidity derivatives for the Russian population given the limited access to medical and demographic data. The multiple decrement life table method also known as the population model of cancer was originally proposed by J. Duchêne and makes it possible to assess otherwise inaccessible indicators, such as the prevalence of cancer in the Russian population. Applying this model to the publicly available data on cancer mortality and morbidity, we were able to estimate the following indicators for the Russian population: average age at malignant neoplasms (MN) diagnosis, the average duration of disease, the prevalence of MN, and an average age at death from MN. We aimed to determine whether the prevalence of MN is increasing in the Russian Federation and whether this growth is occurring due to the expansion of morbidity.
It was found that the average age at cancer diagnosis, along with the average age at death from cancer, is increasing in the Russian population, with the primacy of the latter. These processes are in turn resulting in an increase of the average number of years lived with cancer, hence justifying the claim for an expansion of morbidity. This phenomenon, along with the increase in the incidence of MN, is the cause of the increase in MN prevalence in Russia.
Localizations with the highest and lowest MN prevalence were identified, as well as localizations for which the expansion of morbidity phenomenon does not occur. It was found that in Russia the general trend is for the expansion of morbidity, expressed in an increase in the number of years lived in an imperfect health condition. MN of the lip, oral cavity and oesophagus (C00 - C15) in women is the only localization for which this phenomenon is not observed. This localization is the only exception to the otherwise observed expansion of morbidity. The main limitations and drawbacks of the study are discussed in a separate section.
Population ageing is forcing researchers throughout the world to study more closely the economic activity of pensioners. In Russia in the last few years pensioner employment has demonstrated significant growth, while economic activity of the working age population has remained stable. This fact requires further investigation. One of the sources that can shed light on the trends in pensioners’ employment activity is data from The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE). In this paper we use data from the Russian Statistical Office (Rosstat) and RLMS-HSE to analyze the trends of older people’s employment activity from the statutory age of retirement (55 for women and 60 for men) until age 70. We show that the recent increase in economic activity was typical for Russian pensioners of all age groups, but the highest growth was recorded for females 60-64 years old. The paper also reveals that among all working pensioners the share of those employed in education, healthcare, science, housing services, The ministry of internal affairs and the military-industrial sector – economic sectors where the role of the state is predominant – has increased for the period under review. Hence the most popular career options for those working at pension age are either to keep their previous job in the above-mentioned industries, or to change jobs, often for a less demanding position and/or informal employment. Unlike developed countries, the increase of economic activity of Russian pensioners has not been driven by increased flexibility of the labor market. Neither the share of self-employed nor the share of part-time employed pensioners increased in the period under study.
More than half of all deaths in Russia in 2011-2014 were subjected to pathologic or forensic autopsy, as a result of which the cause of death was not identified for 3.8 percent of the cases. More than 147,000 unproductive autopsies which left the cause of death unknown were carried out. Such a large number of cases cannot be explained by the state of the cadavers at the moment of the autopsy. Another 161,000 deaths (4.1% of autopsies) were classified as events of undetermined intent. This paper attempts to find a rational explanation for such a high proportion of uncertain autopsy conclusions concerning the cause of death. The methods applied include an analysis at the macro-level (regions), with the help of factor analysis and clustering techniques, and multinomial logistic regression at the micro-level, using anonymous individual records. The study is based entirely on Russian state statistics data. There are large interregional differences in the practices of determining the cause of death based on autopsy. Practices of diagnosing external causes also vary greatly by region. In regions where the proportion of unspecified causes is higher, the share of events of undetermined intent is also higher. These differences are not connected with the peculiarities of mortality in each region. The analysis suggests that the large number of cases in which the cause of death remains unknown after an autopsy is due to the lack of incentives to clarify the cause of death after the issuance of the preliminary medical death certificate. Moreover, the existing system of relations between forensic bureaus and law-enforcement agencies makes no provision for apprising forensics experts of the final conclusions concerning the external causes of death. From 2011 to 2014 the number of forensic autopsies of persons who had died from disease increased by 20 percent, but there are doubts that the information obtained as a result of the autopsies is effectively used by the health care system.
Using two representative for Russia surveys (“Person, Family, Society” for research models building and “RLMS-HSE” for auxiliary, descriptive analysis), we analyzed the differences in the life courses of Russian men who served and did not serve in the army. For these two groups of men, we compared the ages and sequences of the most important starting events (separation from parental home, first job, obtaining an education of highest level, first cohabitation, first marriage, and first child). We constructed socio-demographic events for these men at the age of 15 and at the moment of the survey “Person, Family, Society).
Our results revealed that the ones who served in the military have more socio-economic and demographic events than those who avoided military service: men with military experience start adult life earlier and more intensively. The mechanism of the selection to the military services changed: since the 1990s, served men are mainly children of parents who did not get higher education and did not occupy senior positions in the period of their children socialization. After dismissal from military service, men often work and live separately, while avoided the army study and live with parents.
The statistics of long-term internal migration in 2011 underwent serious changes related to the inclusion of persons registered not only at their place of residence, but also at their place of stay for a period of 9 months or more. As a result of these changes, a migrant whose registration has expired is immediately considered to have returned to his place of origin. This reform of statistical accounting has led to a sharp increase in the number of registered migrants and to a change in the structural characteristics of migration flows. The article analyzes the consequences of the appearance of a new category - “returning after a temporary absence” - in the statistics of internal migration. The research also reveals the problems of assessing the extent of migration, its directions and the impact of migration on the population of certain territories of the country. In addition, it is proved that the existing methodology of statistical accounting distorts the structural characteristics of migration, especially at young ages.
The paper regards an association between conception and official marriage registration in Russian women’s life course. Authors use 2010 vital statistics database on births for a set of regions to analyze marriage registration rates at different months of pregnancy or before it. The study reveals differences in the marital behavior in a state of pregnancy within age groups and also within regions. A registration of out-of-wedlock births basing on joint parent’s application as well as association between this type of conduct and parent’s age gain special attention within this paper. Furthermore, authors examine dynamics of women’s family status during five years after the birth of the first child using 2010 Census data. Results of the study reveal that in Russia high popularity of legitimated births, i.e. marriages set after confirmed pregnancies, persists until now. Age structure of spouses in this type of families and its higher prevalence among first marriages prove this type of wedlock to be a marker of traditionalist demographic behavior. The same hypothesis is supported by the observed high break-up rate amidst recently married couples with young children.
This article is devoted to the issue of assistance to the elderly from the interfamily support network and the participation of the elderly in interfamily exchanges. Data of representative surveys (RLMS-HSE, 2013, Integrated monitoring of population life conditions in Russia, 2011) show the importance of relatives’ support for older people. Relatives provide not only material aid which significantly exceeds the amount of social aid, but also a broad array of necessary services including psychological support in adapting to a new stage of the life cycle after finishing labor activity.
We define the target group of our study and its socio-demographic characteristics, including the distinguishing features of regional location. The main focus of the study is the most vulnerable group of older people: persons living alone and married couples living apart. Due to underdevelopment of the service industry for the elderly, support aid from relatives and neighbors is vital for this group of older people.
After a long period of decline, life expectancy in Russia has substantially increased since 2004 to recent times. Thus, this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. The study is a systematic analysis of this positive trend. We use decomposition techniques to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained between 2003 and 2012. Using the same method, the major components of the remaining gap between Russia and most developed countries in life expectancy are identified. Some new features of improvements of recent years in comparison with changes in mortality in the 1990s and early 2000s are revealed. The accelerated reduction of infant mortality and reduced mortality from tuberculosis, diabetes and other avoidable causes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. However, the main components of the new growth in life expectancy are mostly attributable to the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions and violence. At older ages, especially significant was the decline in female mortality from cerebrovascular disease. The gap in the expected lifetime between Russia and most of the developed countries is still quite elevated, and mortality from cardiovascular diseases and many external causes remains at a record high. The question, however, of whether such progress can be sustained remains an open one. Of particular concern is the noted recent reduction of federal budget expenditures on health.
Usually in rich countries life expectancy is higher than in poor countries. We checked whether this is true for the regions of Russia.
The object of the study was data for 2010, which is the year of the last population census. We used life expectancy at birth as longevity measure and the value of gross domestic product per capita in US dollars at purchasing power parity is used as the welfare measure.
The analysis is based on a comparison of regional data with the Preston curve that describes relationship between per capita GDP and life expectancy at birth. The curve was also determined for 2010 based on data from 57 countries, where population statistics are suitable for the calculation of life table.
We found that life expectancy in Russia is substantially below the level that the Preston's model predicts for Russian on the basis of the Russia’s GDP per capita. In 2010, the difference between the model and real life expectancy was 8.7 years and was the highest among the 57 countries involved in the calculation.
The dependence of life expectancy on economic situation in regions is practically nonexistent. The illusion of interdependence exists because Moscow stands out among other regions with high GDP and high life expectancy. However life expectancy in 2010 in Moscow was significantly lower than the level predicted by the Preston's model. In authors; opinion, the lack of communication is explained by the fact that in regions with high GDP, the level of economic inequality is also high. High incomes of a small part of the population can raise the average level of economic indicators in the region, but a lower mortality in a small group has little effect on life expectancy of total population.
The article examines the evolution of the demographic structure of households in Russia based on a detailed analysis of national population censuses and micro-censuses for a long time series and a comparison of census data for different years. It is noted that, due to the fact that the object of Soviet censuses was the family, while the object of post-Soviet censuses is the household, there are certain limitations on analysis of a long time series for Russia. At the same time, the focus on the household in Russian censuses makes it possible to compare them with the statistics of households in many foreign countries. The main trends in the size and structure of households in Russia are revealed based on the data of population censuses and population micro-censuses. A comparative analysis between the structure of households in Russia and those in foreign countries (European countries and the USA) is made. It is shown that, despite the decrease in the average household size and the growth in the share of single households, the share of extended households in Russia is still much higher than in Europe and the USA. The structure of Russian households is characterized by a relatively low proportion of married couples without children and a high proportion of single-parent family households (especially of single-parent families within complex households).
The point of view of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the birth rate. Do demographers have strong bases to support the increased optimism that demonstrated today by politicians and administrators of different levels? According to the author, there are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in the previous issue, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which presented in this issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.