The article deals with the impact of the "Quebec factor" on Canada-France bilateral relations. Since the Quiet Revolution ("Revolution Tranquille") French Canadians have regarded Quebec provincial institutions as a tool to promote their specific national interests in Canada and abroad. In mid- 1960s, Quebec established "special partnership" with France; at the same time, Paris started regarding French-speaking Canadian province as a privileged partner. It caused problems for the Canadian Federal Government which sought good relations with France and made all efforts to neutralize Quebec's attempts to involve Paris in federal provincial conflicts. The situation reached its peak during two Quebec referendums on Sovereignty (1980 and 1995). The main part of the paper focuses on the Canada-France relations in 2000-2015. It shows the change of traditional French position toward the Quebec independentist movement under Nicolas Sarkozy, who chose to neglect "ni-ni " formula and openly supported Canadian unity. It also analyses the reasons of this decision and stresses the role of close personal ties between Sarkozy and French Canadian multimillionaire Paul Desmarais, a powerful and uncompromising opponent of separatists. The paper shows the negative reaction on Sarkozy's new approach in Quebec (and not only among separatists). It looks into the attitude of Francois Holland's administration, which, on the one hand, returned to the "ni-ni" formula, but on the other hand, succeeded in establishing close relations with the Canadian Federal Government. It concludes that Quebec factor will continue to influence Canada-France relations despite the decline o f the separatist movement, because Quebec will further develop its identity paradiplomacy thus stressing its specificity within the framework of the Canadian Federation.
The rapid growth of Chinese military capabilities and the increasing role of the military – especially the naval – factor in the PRC politics in recent years can be perceived as a shift away from Beijing’s policy dating back to the “Reform and Opening-up”, which was expressly passive and peaceful. Meanwhile, the overall Chinese military potential growth is the result of the systematic implementation of policies rooted in Deng Xiaoping’s era decisions. At the moment, the PRC is quickly closing the gap between the U.S. and Russia in the development of military technologies and is even gaining leading positions in some areas. The study is aimed at revealing the origins of the current rise of China’s military power and its capability to reinforce its new proactive approach to world politics with necessary military resources. The main focus is on the analysis of the PRC naval forces as – along with the nuclear forces – they are the main tool for global projection of the state power. The study also addresses China’s other military capabilities, which enable it to influence the shaping of new world order. It seems that in the 2020s, the PRC will already be able to support its foreign policy by using force efficiently, whereas containing China can be very costly and risky. The new Chinese blue water Navy will provide the mainstay of these capabilities, which will be additionally supported by the growing expeditionary capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force and the PLA Ground Force. The far-reaching plans to develop a maritime component for the PRC nuclear forces is another important factor influencing the Chinese naval development in a major war. The expected expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities and the possibility of the country’s approach to a third great nuclear power status will greatly limit the U.S. ability to deter China in Asia and around the world.
The article is devoted to the analysis of the current crisis phase in the evolution of the Union State of Belarus
and Russia. The author identifies the main problems and obstacles in the dialogue between the two countries on the development of the integration project, defines the stages of the crisis phenomena extension, evaluates scenarios for
overcoming the crisis. The article points to the mistakes made by the founders of the Union State during formation of the
project in the early 21st century, which eventually began to appear after the Union crises of 2008 and 2014. According
to the author, the main causes of the current crisis are the substitution of economic and political integration between
Russia and Belarus by the balance of interests of the two neighboring countries. However, the latter did not guarantee
the development of the integration project. Over the years of the Union State’s existence, Russia’s extensive financial
and resource support has become an indicator of the lack of real economic integration. As a result, Russian subsidies
have replaced the union of the two economies. In turn, in the second decade of the 21st century, Minsk’s avoidance of
participation in the solution of Moscow’s strategic military objectives and the absence of a single Union foreign policy
have broken the balance of interests between the countries in the Union State. The Union State has lost its foundation.
Russia’s desire to reformat allied relations between its founders implies a revival of real economic integration. However,
the Belarusian leadership does not want to change the existing subsidized system of relations within the Union State.
According to the author, the crisis between Russia and Belarus is striving for its climax.
The author looks into the optimal model of international banking regulation using principles and mechanism of macroprudential policy. Severity of the recent global financial crisis uncovered a series of deficiencies in traditional (microprudential) regulation and triggered a broader and advanced understanding of the regulatory framework while putting on the agenda priorities of interrelationships between micro- and macro-levels. In fact, microprudential regulation lacks reliable tools that would address key determinants known for their contribution to financial instability including interconnectedness of systemically important banks, deficiencies of their stress resilience to adverse externalities, and systemic risks that undermine soundness of the financial system. Any of the above stress factors taken in isolation may incite crises, probability of which, however, could be reduced by instruments that link key performance indicators of the banking sector with macro-level dynamics. Although the concept of macroprudential approach in regulation is yet to be finalized, its instruments has already proved their validity and efficiency in navigating regulators with higher accuracy of capital adequacy measurement over the extended time horizon, coping with the excessively increasing assets, limiting credit appetites of banks, and ensuring countercyclicality of banking performance thus smoothening financial cycles. Unlike traditional regulation, the macroprudential domain provides more insights (however, still to a limited extent) into how to balance among the objectives of the post-crisis regulatory paradigm – banking sector dynamics, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability, which all together appear to be a ‘trilemma’ of the global financial environment. It is believed that further operationalization of macroprudential regulation will add more consistency to national regulatory regimes that will give rise to further internationalization of the Basel Accords including standards and recommendations of Basel III. Despite promising perspectives for minimization of exogenous and endogenous risks in the banking industry, macroprudential mechanism is yet to find fine-tuned analytical tools that would quantify elements that are critical for the settlement of the regulatory ‘trilemma’ aiming at enhanced sustainability of international financial intermediation amid souring macro-level parameters and market pessimism. Besides, international regulators are still in search for the unbiased and rigor criteria of macroprudential institutional framework. Even though central banks are currently the place for macroprudential policy and supervision, the latter demands more rational grouping of, and customized approach for, its functions and responsibilities. This ensued from the specifics of macroprudential policy actions that may ultimately compromise independence of the central bank’s monetary policy, especially in the framework of inflation targeting, and impair financial cycle elasticity. Importance of the institutional design is also urged by closer synchronization of macroprudential policy with other areas of macro-financial management and supervision. This stands in line with macroprudentialism as a driving force of crisis mitigation. However, missing the acceptable macroprudential standards (in addition to instruments) will be seriously affecting shaping the integrated mechanism of banking regulation eligible for the objectives of post-crisis recovery.
According to OECD statistics, in 2003–2013 annual incidence of job displacement varied from 1% to 7% of total number of wage and salary workers aged 20–64. Labour reallocation is a necessary part of labor market flexibility and economic growth however worker displacement generally also leads to an increase in unemployment and to a decrease in the income of those dismissed. Therefore, a set of measures to mitigate the negative consequences of this process is becoming an important direction of labor market policy. Significant cross-country differences in the ratios of re-employment and the size of wage gaps between jobs indicate that a well-designed and effective labor market measures, as well as properly “tuned” institutions, can significantly reduce the social risks of layoffs. Employees of obsolete professions who require serious professional retraining are in the group of primary risk after the displacement. Given the increasing dynamism and flexibility of the labor market throughout the world, the development of a more targeted system of financial support for the dismissed which involves coordinating the payment of benefits of various types, as well as taking into account the interests of vulnerable workers who do not have time to gain the tenure necessary to participate in the voluntary insurance program, is needed. Present study outlines the main policies for mass layoffs in OECD countries. Particular attention is paid to the characteristics of the system of financial support for the displaced workers, including the specifics of unemployment benefits and severance pay, as well as the configuration of active programs in the labor market and the practices of the public employment service.
The article offers a systematic analysis of negotiation processes aimed at the settlement of the Syrian conflict. Special attention is paid to the negotiations in Geneva and Astana. Despite the fact that Geneva remains the main platform for the intra-Syrian dialogue, the large number of participants involved in the conflict, the stalemate of the situation, and the very broad agenda predetermined a tendency towards regionalization and particularization of the Syrian negotiating process. As a result, the process acquired a three-level format. The leading role in it is still played by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) and the Geneva negotiations initiated by it, which approve all key political decisions on the Syrian conflict. The Astana talks sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran constitute an intermediate negotiating platform, whose main goal is to optimize the Geneva peace process, eliminating the military agenda from it. In addition, Astana serves to legitimize decisions adopted at the talks in Amman and Cairo with a more local status, which are, in turn, destined to complement Astana negotiations and bring a maximum number of parties to the table, required for the intra-Syrian dialogue.
метод политологических исследований, сопоставительно-институциональный анализ, характеристики государства, государствоведческие исследования
The economic crisis of 2008-2009 highlighted new problems in the development of the German social market economy model and brought to the forefront the factors of its resilience that have ensured Germany's leadership positions in the EU. Changes in economic policy have affected in the ﬁrst place the energy and the ﬁnancial sectors. Shifts in the political landscape have led to the appearance of new political parties. These changes have affected the results of the 2013 elections, the liberal democrats failure to enter the Bundestag has made the winner - CDU - seek new coalition partners.