Аt the turn of 2008 Russian banks were traded at hefty P/BV multiples in the range of 3 to 4. That looks like a bubble. This paper is an attempt to reconstruct possible rational logic behind this value which related to a possible real option. Two approaches are employed: decision tree analysis and a binomial model. Following analysis shows that a real option was limited to a select set of investors. Thus suspicion of a local banking bubble is not refuted.