The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths are currently attracting worldwide attention. Different web resources publish these data for countries and their regions. The data are available to everyone and are updated in almost real-time mode. The rapid collection of data on cases and deaths and the open access of these data clearly provide important advantages in combating the epidemic, predicting its spread, and planning containment measures. An important area of research on the COVID-19 epidemic is the comparison of countries and territories by their levels of morbidity, lethality, and mortality. Given the opportunities opening up today for data analysis, it is crucially important to understand according to what criteria the data are collected.
This paper discusses the key issues of collecting data on COVID-19 cases and deaths and raises the question of data comparability across countries. It shows that countries differ significantly in their approaches to reporting COVID-19 cases and deaths. The data comparability across countries can be influenced, among other things, by the availability of tests, the criteria adopted by the country for testing for the virus (both while the patient is alive and post-mortem), and approaches to determining the cause of death and recording COVID-19 deaths in those with pre-existing chronic conditions. Different approaches to recording COVID-19 cases and deaths across countries, as well as their changes over time, pose significant limitations to our ability to assess the spread of the epidemic. These limitations should be taken into account when performing the analysis of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Ignoring these limitations can significantly distort our understanding of the spread of the epidemic across different territories.
The article looks at key approaches to population health and disability analysis. It demonstrates the fruitfulness of the “modern” conception of disability understood as restrictions on daily life activities due to health problems, and proposes instruments for measuring public health and disabilities in Russia based on international experience using the census and census-based surveys. Specifically, it applies WHO and UN recommendations to the micro-census of 2015 to develop tools for getting more detailed and useful information on disability than is currently available.
The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents in Russia during 2006 to 2011. The analysis is based on the use of integrated indicators of years of life lost. It is shown that the maximum number of years of life lost due to excess mortality and disability (or gained from their elimination) is observed for men in the age group from 40 to 65 years, and for women between 55 and 75 years. New metrics of disability weights are developed.
This paper investigates the use of the United Nations World Population Policies Database for research on internal migration policy. Internal migration is more extensive and, perhaps, even more significant for the economic, political, social and cultural development of society than international migration. Internal migration policy is not always singled out as an independent factor, but is generally treated as a part of other types of policies.
In order to summarize the experience of different countries, conduct international comparisons and identify regional and global tendencies in the implementation of policies on internal migration, the World Population Policy Database can be used. The database contains regularly updated information on the situation and trends in the implementation of population policy for all UN member states and some other territories. The main source of information is the official responses of the governments of these countries and territories to regularly distributed inquiries of the UN Population Division.
The database provides access to information about population policy and some demographic and socio-economic indicators from 1976 to 2015. The web interface makes it possible to create maps and graphs and to download datasets of policy data in the Excel format, and also contains sections with the latest publications that use the database and useful links (including links to other demographic databases). At the same time, it should be noted that the potential of the database on population policy for Russian studies on internal migration has not been adequately exploited.
The problem of motor vehicle injuries in Russia nowadays is a common topic of discussion. Motor vehicle accidents as a cause of death are among the most significant causes of premature mortality in Russia. Motor vehicle accidents, the cause of 26,977 deaths in 2013, are an important public health problem, the leading cause of death among young working-age people. In addition to these deaths, annually about 250 thousand people are seriously injured and need hospital treatment. This puts a serious burden on the healthcare system, which must provide medical care for injuries while at the same time solving other priority problems. This paper is devoted to an analysis of the statistical sources of information about road traffic accidents in Russia. The author analyzes Russian and international approaches to the organization of statistics about road traffic accidents. An evaluation is presented of the undercounting of road traffic accidents with injured people and the underestimation of its impact in Russia. Recommendations are made on how to record and compare information from different sources about road traffic accidents.
On the basis of an international survey, the article analyzes the health and well-being of the elderly (55+) of different religious background in 14 European countries. Religious affiliation and activity are shown to have an insignificant influence on the health of the elderly both within European countries on the whole and within Western and Eastern countries separately. It is concluded that country origin is more significant than religious affiliation and activity.
Critical notes concerning debatable or unfounded claims casting doubt on facts and formulas discovered by the author in a number of the demographic works of A.V. Korotaev and his coauthors devoted to demographic problems of modern Russia and published during the last 10 years.
Direct and indirect losses resulting from major conflicts significantly upset the natural reproduction of a given population and give rise to large - scale waves of migration. Estimating these losses remains a persistent task for demographers . An important source of information regarding the number of casualties of combat and one - sided violence is annually updated databases on armed conflicts. The article discusses data sources and evaluations of mortality due to organized collective violence. The trends in the number of armed conflicts of various types and of the death toll resulting from them for the period 1946-2015 are analyzed for the whole world and for the major regions, as well as the impact of losses in armed conflict on the population and its age and sex composition. From 1946 to 2015, the severity and bloodiness of armed conflicts declined, but since 2011 there has been a tendency towards an increase in the number of conflicts, as well as in the number of people killed in them. The number of internal armed conflicts, which then often develop into international ones with the participation of many countries, is increasing. So far, however, a comparison of the last quarter -century (the era after the Cold War), and the previous quarter -century indicates a reduction in the number of major armed conflicts involving the state and one -sided violence in the form of mass murder on ethnic and political grounds.
The first objective of this study was to provide an overview that briefly describes how modern research explains changes in matrimonial behavior in time and space (heterogeneity between European countries and within Russia). The second objective was to identify the main determinants of the choice of the first matrimonial union that function at macro-, meso-, and micro-levels. The third and main objective was to find an answer to the question of how changes in the matrimonial behavior of Russians are correlated with trends observed in other European countries. For this purpose, the second wave data of the international survey "Generation and Gender" and panel data of the Russian part of the same survey were employed. The analysis demonstrated that in Russia, changes typical for the unified social spaces of industrial and post-industrial societies are taking place: an increase in the number of partners over a lifetime, a gradual decrease in the proportion of people getting married, an increase in the share of single people, and a decrease in the number of second marriages. Intercountry differences in matrimonial behavior are explained by a country's historically formed type of marriage, the values profile of the population, and the family policy regime (macro-level). In Russia, as well as in other countries, the choice of first matrimonial event type is determined by the type of settlement (meso-level), age at the first union, conception preceding the union, the matrimonial experience of parents, the circumstances of leaving the parental home and entering the job market, and the level of education (micro-level).
The paper presents a modern methodology for estimating the impact of different age groups on the production and distribution of national income, called national transfer (generational) accounts. The human economic lifecycle is divided into stages defined by the ratio of labour income to consumption. In middle ages the gained income is higher than current consumption. The resulting surplus of resources is supposed to cover the income deficit in older and younger age groups. Estimates of the deficit or surplus at different ages are made for the Russian population for 2013 based on the results of age profiles taken from administrative sources and surveys. In the paper we also estimate the projected changes in the lifecycle deficit under different demographic development scenarios. Age profiles of labour income and consumption are used to calculate the effective economic support and the influence of demographic changes in Russia on economic growth rates in the near future.
The paper analyses the age structure of internal migration across Russian regions. We use data on the age of interregional migrants in the regions of Russia in 2011-2015 given for one-year age groups and data on the population size of the Russian regions by one-year age groups. The regions were grouped into clusters (by the ratio of arrivals/departures per age group to the total number of migrants) using the method of k-means clustering with SPSS. The results of the analysis indicate that, as in other countries, the peak of migration is observed at young ages, which is explained by mass enrollment of school graduates in institutions of higher education. As people become older, their migration activity declines. In some cases, regions experience another migration peak in young old age groups: after retirement, people may move to a place more appropriate for 50-60-year-olds or return to their previous place of residence. The analysis also revealed significant variations in age patterns of interregional migration, both for inflows (arrivals) and outflows (departures). These differences mainly concern the level of the migration peak at young ages and the presence of additional migration peaks at other ages.
There are long-standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below-replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators have been developed to assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and some are particularly data demanding. In this article we propose a simple method to assess how far migration alters the extent of replacement for a birth cohort as it ages. We term the measure the overall replacement ratio (ORR). It is calculated by taking the size of a female birth cohort at selected ages divided by the average size of the cohorts of mothers in the year of birth. We present estimates of the ORR for a range of European countries representing different replacement regimes. We demonstrate that for many countries net migration has become a key factor in their population trends during the last few decades.
The paper traces the history of the three population microcensuses held in Russia in 1985, 1994 and 2015, highlighting their methodological, technological and perational aspects, as well the questionnaire’s design. Given that the microcensuses provide more data in terms of new topics than conventional decennial population and housing censuses, this article focuses on the main research findings based on microcensus data. A closer look is taken at the 2015 population microcensus, as it has peculiarities in terms of sample size and design, as well as at the content of the census questionnaires. Deviations of the regional-territorial structure of the sample from the permanent population of Russia are revealed.It is shown that the representativeness of the data for the whole country is distorted, and the socio-demographic and geographical characteristics of the population are also biased due to the considerable variability of the sample size by regions of Russia. A comparison of the size and structure of the population according to the 2015 microcensus with data from vital statistics and population censuses, together with an estimate of age heaping, indicates serious problems with the data quality of the microcensus and the presence of typical errors common to conventional population censuses. Attention is focused on a shifting of the age structure of the population to older ages according to the 2015 microcensus, which could affect figures on education, economic activity, morbidity, disability, the demographic composition of households and other variables closely related with age.
This paper is devoted to the analysis of the starting events marking the transition to adulthood, such as completion of education (vocational and higher), first employment, first leaving parents first time leaving home, first partnership, first marriage, and first childbirth.
The dataset of the research is the Russian part of the Generations and Gender Programme (GGS). We prepared the harmonised dataset of the three waves (2004, 2007, and 2011), which included 5,451 respondents born between 1930 and 1986. We used two complementary approaches to study the transition to adulthood: the analysis of the starting sociodemographic events separately and the analysis of all of them as a part of one process. We plotted the results of the analysis on a demographic Lexis grid, which allowed us to observe the influence of the historical and institutional context on people’s behaviour.
The research revealed three models of the transition to adulthood in Russia: “Soviet” (generations of 1940-49, 1950-59, and 1960-69), “Transitional” (generations of 1930-39 and 1970-79), and “Post-Soviet” (generation of 1980-86). Our classification is similar to the idea of the convergence of the patterns of the starting events’ occurrence (Billari and Liefbroer 2007), which assumes a change from the “traditional” model (“early, contracted and simple”) to the “modern” model (“late, protracted and complex”). The similarity of the changes in Russian and European models confirms the stadiality of the modernisation process (Frejka and Zakharov 2012; Puur et al. 2012). The study also confirms the assumption of the life course approach about the individualisation of the life course.
The Institute of Demography of The Higher School of Economics annually prepares a detailed scientific report on the demographic changes in Russia in the previous year. However, due to the fact that the work on the full report, including its publication, takes a long time, we are publishing in this issue a short express version of the report that gives an overview of the main results of Russian demographic development in 2013.
There is an opinion that today’s youth is not only in a hurry to became adults, but also refusing to obtain starting life course events that may limit freedom and that require commitment. To test this idea, we studied the ages of the onset of six major biographical events: completion of professional education, first employment, first separation from parents, first partnership (unregistered union), first marriage and birth of the first child.
We compared the behaviour of six generations of Russians born between 1930 and 1986. Our sample consisted of 5,451 people from the panel of the Russian part of the Generations and Gender Survey (2004, 2007 and 2011). We not only studied the median ages of the onset of events and presented them on the Lexis grid, but also estimated the chances of obtaining starting events using Cox regressions (event history analysis).
We found that there is no serious postponement of socioeconomic events: employment and separation from parents minimally changed their positions in the schedule of life of young generations. Completion of education has moved to a later age, but this is due to a significant increase in the number of graduates of vocational education of different levels. The age of entry into first partnership in young generations has fallen to a historic low, becoming the earliest of the demographic events. Two other demographic events – first marriage and first childbearing – indeed had been postponed by young people, especially men. Thus, our study revealed that young generations are not sabotaging transition to adulthood but they are becoming adults but according to their own life schedules and in their own time.
Alexander Kulischer [Alexandre Koulicher] (1890-1942), a former professor at Petrograd University (St. Petersburg, Russia), who emigrated to France after the Russian Revolution of October 1917, may be considered one of the pioneers of the theory of demographic transition. However, his contribution to the development of this theory has gone almost unnoticed and underrated. This article presents the intellectual biography of Alexander Kulischer, and it analyzes his views on the demographic transition (demographic revolution), as he expressed them in his publications in German and in French in the early 1930s. Two of these forgotten publications written in French are republished (in the language of the original and in Russian translation) in the appendix to the article.