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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 60
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Article
Akaev A., Korotayev A., Issaev L. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 116. P. 316-321.

There are grounds to conclude that in 2011–2012 the World System experienced to some extent a phase transition to a qualitatively new state of global protest activity. This phase transition is shown to bear some resemblance to the one which the World System experienced in the early 1960s. The first (after 1919) phase transition of this sort occurred in the early 1960s and was related to the growth of global informational connectivity after World War II, as well as the improvement of the means of protest self-organization due to the spread of television, portable radio receivers, portable electric loud-speakers and other technologies of the Fourth Kondratieff Cycle. The phase transition of the early 2010s was prepared by a newwave of growth of global informational connectivity, as well as the improvement of the means of protest self-organization due to the spread of various technologies of the Fifth Kondratieff cycle (the Internet, satellite television, Twitter and other social networks, mobile telephony etc.). Similarly to what was observed during the Fourth Kondratieff Wave, during the Fifth Cycle while the spread of these technologies was going on for many years before 2011, their internal colossal potential for generating and spreading protest activity was realized in one leap, as a phase transition.

Added: Feb 27, 2017
Article
Botchie D., Sarpong D., Bi J. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016.

The Northern economies have been the main sources of technologies for the global garment manufacturing industry. Over the past decade, China has become an important alternative source of these technologies offering a range of technological choices for small scale and dispersed production of cheap consumer goods, particularly in the developing world. Preceding a national foresight exercise aimed at enhancing the capabilities of small-scale garment producers in Uganda, we examine the potential ‘inclusiveness’ of garment sewing machines imported from the Northern economies and China, and their individual potential to enhance the capabilities of poor garment producers, particularly, women and rural dwellers. Data for our study included a survey and semi-structured interviews with 147 garment firms and other key informants. Compared to the Chinese sewing machines, we found that the Northern machines have high acquisition cost, relies on scale and advanced infrastructure, and tend to exclude poor rural producers (often women). The transfer of Chinese technologies to Uganda, we also found is much easier, have larger spread effects, leading to smaller gaps in technological know-how between China and Uganda because of the context in which Chinese technological innovations are induced. We conclude with some implication of our study to theory and policy.

Added: Jul 1, 2016
Article
Li S., Garces E., Daim T. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2019. Vol. 148. No. article 119731. P. 1-14.

During the last years, new technologies have been developing at a rapid pace; however, new technologies carry risks and uncertainties. Technology forecasting by analogy has been used in the case of emerging technologies; nevertheless, the use of analogies is subject to several problems such as lack of inherent necessity, historical uniqueness, historically conditioned awareness, and casual analogies. Additionally, the natural process of selecting the analogy technology is based on subjective criteria for technological similarities or inductive inference. Since many analogies are taken qualitatively and rely on subjective assessments, this paper presents a quantitative comparison process based on the Social Network Analysis (SNA) and patent analysis for selecting analogous technologies. In this context, the paper presents an analysis of complex patent network structures using centrality and density metrics in order to reduce the lack of information or the presence of uncertainties. The case of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is explored in this paper, comparing three candidate technologies which have been chosen based on the similarities with the target technologies. The best candidate technology is selected based on the analysis of two main centrality metrics (average degree and density).

Added: Oct 24, 2019
Article
Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. No. 119. P. 194-204.

Developing competitive national shipbuilding industries is a strategic priority for many countries. Shipbuilding has evolved into a high tech industry over the last few decades that is strongly driven by customer needs and wishes. Consequently economic development of the industry is now far more complex than previously. International competition in the shipbuilding industry is very strong in all segments of the industry. The article assesses the future development of the shipbuilding industry globally and evaluates the position and opportunities for Russian shipbuilding. International experience of estimating industries' future development shows that a necessary condition of success is building a vision of the industry's long-term future in the context of social and economic development. One way to create such a long-term vision is through developing scenarios based on factors including wild card events, global challenges, trends, threats, drivers, barriers, and limitations. One of the most effective approaches to enhance competitiveness of the industry is Technology Foresight. The paper presents results of Foresight for civil shipbuilding in Russia on the basis of benchmarking, expert procedures and scenario analysis. It demonstrates how Technology Foresight was adjusted to the special conditions of Russia as an emerging country and how the special features of strategic industries which are in the national interest of countries can be included in Technology Foresight studies. Finally the article derives strategies for policy making to set priorities for revitalizing the industry.

Added: Oct 3, 2016
Article
Gokhberg L., Sokolov A. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. June. No. 119. P. 256-267.

The paper aims to analyse the evolution of forward-looking activities in Russia vis-à-vis science, technology and innovation policy challenges and its development over the last century, with a particular focus on the period of transition to a market economy.With the development of more complex and elaborate policy instruments, demand for a better grounded long-termvision of social and economic trends has been growing both among policy makers and the S&T community. The study illustrates the emergence of technology foresight in Russia and its evolution along relevant stages of economic development, from an information source for S&T and innovation policy towards a fully-fledged anticipatory policy instrument.

Added: Jul 18, 2016
Article
Miles I. D., Meissner D., Vonortas N. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 119. P. 211-218.

Technology Foresight (TF) became an increasingly popular approach for science, technology and innovation (STI) policymakers from the mid-1990s on. Achieving prominence in Japan and Western Europe, it attracted the attention of researchers and policy analysts in many parts of the world in subsequent decades. TF is often seen as a set of tools for informing decisions about STI priorities within established innovation systems. These priorities have necessarily changed as scientific knowledge, technological opportunities, and social demands have evolved. But so too have the ways in which innovation processes operate, and understandings of the roles that STI policies can play. Accordingly TF has also been applied to inform efforts to restructure innovation systems - and, indeed, it was often seen as also providing tools to assist in such efforts. The need for such restructuring has been particularly acute in countries undergoing massive transitions. These include transitions from centrally planned to market economies, from non-industrial to newly industrialized countries, and from being imitation-oriented to becoming innovation pioneers. Correspondingly, considerable effort has been put into TF in many such countries. But much of this TF effort has been largely invisible, or at best poorly documented. TF may itself require redesign, taking different forms in various contexts, and as experience with the tools has accumulated. This might involve different patterns of emphasis of, and ways of articulating: the methods that are employed; the stakeholders engaged; the linkages with STI policymaking; and so on. Informed by the contents of this Special Issue, this essay considers the issues arising from this diffusion and evolution of practice, outlining the main capabilities required to mount successful TF exercises in different contexts.

Added: Apr 26, 2017
Article
Radosevic S., Yoruk E. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. No. 129. P. 56-75.

We explore issues of measurement for technology upgrading of the economies moving from middle to highincome status. In exploring this issue, we apply theoretically relevant and empirically grounded middle level conceptual and statistical framework based on three dimensions: (i) Intensity (ii) breadth of technological upgrading, and (iii) technology and knowledge exchange. As an outcome, we construct a three-pronged composite indicator of technology upgrading based on 35 indicators which reflect different drivers and patterns of technology upgrading of countries at different income levels. We show that technology upgrading of middle-income economies is distinctively different from that of low and high-income economies. Our results suggest the existence of middle-income trap in technology upgrading – i.e. countries' technology upgrading activities are not reflected in their income levels. Based on the simple statistical analysis we show that the middle-income trap is present in all three aspects of technology upgrading, but their importance varies across different aspects. A trap seems to be higher for ‘breadth’ of technology upgrading than for ‘intensity’ of technology upgrading and is by far the highest for the dimension of knowledge and technology interaction with the global economy. Finally, our research shows that technology upgrading is a multidimensional process and that it would be methodologically wrong to aim for an aggregate index.

Added: Nov 11, 2020
Article
Sokolova A. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 101. P. 216-225.

As the need for anticipatory strategic decision-making increases at all levels of governance, there are growing demands for high quality and relevant contributions fromForesight exercises. In this regard, identification of strong and weak aspects of Foresight design and implementation, a quality of outputs and a degree of impact as well as learning from this practice is of great importance. Strong evaluation procedures contribute to further Foresight development and its effectiveness. Literature analysis reveals the diversity of different approaches and criteria for Foresight evaluation at the national level however its basic principles are not yet consolidated and spread for use. The purpose of this paper is to start such consolidation through the development of an integrated approach for ex-post national Foresight evaluation. The proposed methodology was tested in the Russian National Foresight 2030 and the article presents and analyzes the results. Further ways of developing this approach are suggested.

Added: Dec 4, 2015
Article
Bresciani S., Ferraris A., Del Giudice M. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. Vol. 136. P. 331-338.

In the last decade, the Internet of Things (IoT) has affected the approach of organizations to innovation and how they create and capture value in everyday business activities. This is compounded in the so-called Smart Cities, where the objective of the IoT is to exploit information and communication technologies (ICTs) to support added-value services for citizens, giving companies more opportunities to innovate through the use of the latest technologies. In this context, multinational enterprises (MNEs) are building alliances, starting several projects with public and private city stakeholders aimed at exploring new technologies for cities but also at exploiting new IoT-based devices and services in order to profit from them. This implies that companies need to manage and integrate different types of knowledge to efficiently and effectively support the simultaneous pressure of exploration and exploitation, at a project portfolio level. Using structural equations modeling with data collected from 43 IoT smart city project alliances in Italy, this paper tests and finds evidence that MNEs need to develop knowledge management (KM) capabilities combined with ICT capabilities if they want to obtain greater ambidexterity performance at the project portfolio level. More specifically, we highlight that KM capabilities enhance alliance ambidexterity indirectly through firms' ICT capabilities, suggesting that MNE managers should design KM tools and develop new ICT skills. Implications for academics, managers and future lines of research are proposed.

Added: May 10, 2017
Article
Scuotto V., Del Giudice M., Peruta M. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 102. P. 184-194.

Despite rigorous empirical research exploring the changes in innovation dynamics triggered by Social Media Networks (SMNs), the benefits coming from the use of these digital platforms for knowledge search in innovative activities for small to medium enterprises (SMEs) are still unexplored. Customers become the new trailblazers. Thus, by adopting a customer led innovation perspective, this paper seeks to measure the effect on return on investment (ROI) of the use of SMNs as external drivers for supporting internal innovation search processes. On the basis of the extant literature on information system and social network analysis, the research describes and evaluates the multidimensional activities interwoven into the open innovation process, driven by integrating the five constructs of structural dimension, relational behaviour, cognitive dimension, knowledge transfer, and legitimization into our hypothesised conceptual model.Empirical research was conducted via the Classification Regression Tree (CART) on a sample of 2548 SMEs belonging to the fashion industry and based in Italy and in the United Kingdom. This study is of importance to academics and practitioners due to the increasing significance taken on by the adoption of social media networks in the fashion industry to improve innovation search. Recommendations are made to fashion managers and social media experts to support the planning and development of new products and services. New contributions are offered to the innovation and knowledge management literature. In addition, theoretical implications and avenues for future research are also considered.

Added: May 10, 2017
Article
Horta H., Yudkevich M. M. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. No. 113, Part B. P. 363-372.

This article contributes to the literature on academic inbreeding by analyzing its rational, origins, resilience, and options to limit it in two higher education systems (Russia and Portugal) chosen purposively for having more differences than similarities, while sharing high levels of academic inbreeding. Findings show more homogeneity than heterogeneity with regard to the understanding of academic inbreeding as a social phenomenon, its roots, dynamics and role in developing higher education systems. Academic inbreeding is not defined as completely negative but rather fulfills a developmental role, particularly in the early development of these higher education systems, assuming a more detrimental effect later on. Positive and negative impacts of academic inbreeding are discussed, including factors and motivations that contribute for this practice to persist. Finally, three suggestions to curtail academic inbreeding are forwarded: not ending it by decree, fostering internationalization (especially mobility) and implementing transparent recruitment practices.

Added: Oct 30, 2016
Article
Gershman M., Bredikhin S. V., Vishnevskiy K. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 110. P. 187-195.

In recent decades, the attention of researchers and policymakers has turned to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), in particular the role they play in science, technology and innovation and the methods they use to implement innovation strategies. In this paper, we look at Russian state-owned companies and their development plans, as well as the management tools they employ to forecast and prioritize technologies. Although most Russian SOEs rarely implement corporate foresight and technology roadmapping, certain successful cases are presented and discussed in the paper. Based on these case studies, we suggest a common structure of a technology roadmap that is suitable for SOEs.

Added: Oct 23, 2015
Article
Natalia Shmatko, Yurij Katchanov, Volkova G. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020. Vol. 152. P. 119907.

The paper considers career patterns of researchers and the ways to assess their career achievements on the academic and non-academic labor markets. Taking into account the approaches developed earlier in the framework of the sociology of science, as well as on the basis of recent empirical studies, the authors propose an original approach to the study of a research career, determine the integral indicator of career achievements and assess the research career rank by means of the transition probabilities. The study is based on the data obtained during a survey among Russian researchers involving 828 respondents employed by organizations in the main prospective science and technology areas (academic and non-academic sectors). We suggest the research career achievement (RCA) indicator as an analytical tool for managing highly qualified research personnel. The use of PageRank method enabled to discern an extremely uneven distribution of the research career achievement value in the surveyed sample of researchers. The analysis revealed the main factors determining academic and non-academic research career patterns. The findings attest that the factors affecting career patterns are closely linked with the recognition that the researcher obtains or expects at three levels: individual – professional community – society as a whole.

Added: Oct 17, 2018
Article
Roud V. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. Vol. 133. P. 238-253.

This study explores the potential of the innovation modes, a firm-level taxonomy of innovation behavior, to provide a reasonable treatment for the growing complexity and multidimensionality of company strategies, incentives, and demands. The data on the Russian manufacturing enterprises from two complementary surveys are used to estimate broader features of the firms pursuing particular innovation modes, including the intensity, efficiency, and impact of innovation activities, the importance of factors, hampering the performance and the heterogeneity of demand for the policy support measures. Resulting composition of the firm-level patterns and characteristics brings new facilities for the diagnosis-based policy-making in the field of innovation.

Added: May 11, 2018
Article
Sarpong D., Dong S., Appiah G. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. No. 103. P. 109-118.
Newtechnologies continue to shape the way music is produced, distributed and consumed. The newturn to digital streaming services like iTunes, Spotify and Pandora, in particular, means that very recent music format technologies such as cassettes and CD's have almost lost their value. Surprisingly, one ‘obsolete’ music format technology, Vinyl record, is making a rapid comeback. Vinyl sales around the world, in recent times, have increased year on year, and the number ofmusic enthusiast reaching for these long-playing records (LP's) continue unabated. Drawing on the sociology of translation as an interpretive lens, weexamine themomentumbehind the revival of vinyl record, as a preferred music format choice for a growing number of music enthusiasts. In doing this we unpack the inarticulate and latent network of relationships between human and non-human actors that constitutively give form to the contemplative knowledge (what has become) of the resurgence of vinyl as a format of choice. We conclude by discussing how insights from the vinyl reincarnation story could help open up new possibilities for rethinking the contextual re-emergence of near-obsolete technologies, the mobilization of different actors to aid their re-diffusion and potential exploitation of value from retro-technologies. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Added: Mar 1, 2016
Article
Fursov K., Nefedova A., Thurner T. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 118. P. 153-160.

This paper argues that innovation behavior roots in specific socio-psychological set-ups that crystallize in daily practices and routines. The latter are easy to observe and have great potential for the identification of user-innovation behavior.We study the practices and routines of Russian user-innovators aroundmedia consumption, internet and technology-usage, consumer preferences and civic engagement in comparison with a sample of mere users. The derived model correctly classified 73% of the original grouped cases of user-innovators. We conclude that a set of practices relative to the certain economic, social and cultural background explains user-innovation engagement and how support could be provided. Although some of our findings are probably specific to Russia, the results are encouraging for further research into the importance of practices and routines in identifying userinnovators in various environments.

 

 

Added: Dec 12, 2016
Article
Grinin L. E., Tsirel S. V., Korotayev A. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 95. P. 294-308.

The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development of China turns out to be rather important for the forecasting of global futures. This article employs a combination of scientific methods that imply (a) the analysis at the level of Chinese economic model; (b) the analysis at regional level (at this level the Chinese economic model is compared with the regional East Asian model); (c) the analysis at the global level that relies on the modified world-system approach that allows to answer the question whether China will replace the USA as the global leader. It is important that the analysis is conducted simultaneously in economic, social, demographic, and political dimensions. As regards the analysis of specific features of the Chinese model as an especial type of the East Asian model (that is based on the export orientation, capital & technology importation, as well as cheap labor force), we note as organic features of the Chinese model the totalitarian power of the Communist Party and the immenseness of resources. As regards special features of the Chinese model, we note (in addition to “cheap ecology” and cheap labor force) and emphasize that China has a multilevel (in a way unique) system of growth driving forces, where, as opposed to developed states, the dominant role belongs not to native private capital, but to state corporations, local authorities and foreign business. This explains the peculiarities of the Chinese investment (or rather overinvestment), which determines high growth rate up to a very significant degree. A unique feature of the Chinese model is the competition of provinces and territories for investments and high growth indicators. As regards perspectives of the global hegemony of China, we intend to demonstrate that, on the one hand, economic and political positions of China will strengthen in the forthcoming decades, but, on the other hand, China, assuming all possible future success, will be unable to take the USA position in the World System. We believe that in a direct connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to the World System reconfiguration and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System to continue its further development without a hegemon. Finally, the article describes some possible scenarios of the development of China. We demonstrate that China could hardly avoid serious difficulties and critical situations (including those connected with demographic problems); however, there could be different scenarios of how China will deal with the forthcoming crisis. We also come to the conclusion that it would be better for China to achieve a slowdown to moderate growth rates (that would allow China to go through the forthcoming complex transition period with less losses) than to try to return at any cost to explosive growth rates attested in the 2000s.  

Added: Oct 25, 2014
Article
Pombo-Juárez L., Könnölä T., Miles I. D. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 115. P. 278-288.

Many foresight exercises have been undertaken with the aim of improving the performance of innovation ecosystems. These ecosystems extend across different layers including the organisational, sectoral, regional, national and international dimensions. The interconnectedness of these layers has not have received much attention in foresight literature and practise. However, both the development and diffusion of innovations are subject to framework conditions not only within, but also across, multiple layers of innovation ecosystems.

The design and management of foresight exercises are thus liable to addressing and serving these different layers — especially when the goal is to improve the performance and impact of such “interconnected and interdependent systems”. This paper develops further the concept of ‘multi-layered foresight’ by addressing multiple layers of innovation ecosystems in foresight design and management. We explore the implications of applying this type of foresight on improving systemic understanding, enhancing stakeholder networking and developing innovation capacities across the layers of ecosystems. The theoretical underpinnings are tested through a case study of the ‘Personal Health Systems (PHS) Foresight’ project. This project explored international future developments in the health sector, which is characterised by multiple disciplines, communities of practise, technologies, and geographical contexts. In the case of PHS the emerging innovation ecosystems are often conditioned by fragmented development communities, major barriers to market development, and duplication of efforts. The project combined analytical, social networking, online envisioning and scenario building methods to address complexity and create impact in multiple layers. Possible futures for personal health systems were explored through intense dialogues with stakeholders and a desirable future state was sketched through the success scenario methodology. The implications and strategic issues for different groups of stakeholders were outlined, enabling these stakeholders to articulate their efforts as part of a broader agenda at the multiple layers of innovation ecosystems.

Added: Jul 1, 2016