The article analyzes Russian social inequality on the basis of data of domestic and international statistics and expert assessments. It introduces the terms “negative” and “positive” socio-political stability, exploring the relationship of present social inequalities with each of these types of stability. The author concludes that in the current situation the country’s development is on the way of “negative” stability, which creates serious risks of Russia’s entering an open socio-political crisis. The possibilities of avoiding the unfavorable scenario are discussed.
The article analyzes the current tendencies of economic development of Russia from the point of view of their influence on the social situation of the population. It examines the main risks that could affect the deterioration of this situation and possible consequences of their realization. The conclusion is that the social model, which is characterized by very high potential adaptability and does not motivate people to move to nationwide open protests, continues to operate in Russia. Only elite groups of Russian society can become the source of radical change provoked by growing economic problems.
This article discusses changes in the structure of world trade and the features of integration of Russian economy into the global exchange of goods and services. There is an increasing competition on global markets of goods and services that require high-skilled labor. During the last two decades, the structure of Russian export has not gained positive diversification shifts and comparative advantage in high value added goods. The article discusses the following problems of Russian trade policy: an overestimation of traditional sectors’ export potential, a lack of attention to the problems of integration into global value chains and international industrial cooperation, and an untapped potential of fast-growing medium-sized companies. The agenda of prospective Russian trade policy might include a transition to a broad interpretation of trade policy oriented towards long-term structural changes in the economy and a change in the positioning of sectors in global value chains, combined with measures to develop human capital and institutions, determining the further formation of the service sector.
This study considers the influence of structutal change to aggregate labour productivity growth of the Russian economy. The term “structural change” refers to labour reallocation both between industries and between formal and informal segments within an industry. Using Russia KLEMS and official Rosstat data we decompose aggregate labour productivity growth into intra-industry (within) and between industry effects with four alternative methods of the shift share analysis. All methods provide consistent results and demonstrate that total labour reallocation has been growth enhancing though the informality expansion has had the negative effect. As our study suggests, it is caused by growing variation in productivity levels across industries.
The article attempts to analyze the debt crisis in Portugal - as an essential component of the Great Recession in this country - using the financial fragility hypothesis developed by H. P. Minsky. Using a sample of 42 leading Portuguese non-financial private companies, the paper analyzes how the financing regimes used by these companies changed from 2001 to 2017. Before and at the height of the Great Recession, the share of firms with hedge financing mode was decreasing, while the share of firms with fragile financing regimes was increasing. Special attention is paid to how the Portuguese authorities applied austerity policies to deal with the debt crisis, and how they subsequently departed from the principles of this policy. The paper demonstrates that it was precisely after departing from the austerity doctrine of Portuguese non-financial private firms that largely managed to get rid of financial fragility.