This paper examines the influence of tobacco smoking on wages in Russia. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey and regressions with individual fixed effect we examine the effect of smoking intensity on wages. After the control for unobserved heterogeneity our findings show the statistical insignificance of coefficients on tobacco consumption intensity for men. On this basis we are able to assume the absence of causal explanation of the wage gap between male smokers and non-smokers. Estimates for women dont allow us to make the same statement but show the 9.2% wage gain of heavy smokers.
This paper studies the effects of compulsory military service in the Russian army on subsequent income and wages of conscripts. Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, RLMS-HSE, is used. It allows to estimate the effects of compulsory military service in the army in peacetime. In order to identify the causal relationship, a kink in the profile of the probability of being drafted into the army by date of birth is used. To eliminate endogeneity regression kink design method is implemented. The results suggest that compulsory military service does not have a significant impact on the wages and incomes of draftees in Russia.
This paper analyzes the impact of the recent retirement age increase in the Russian Federation on the level of absolute income poverty of the population in the period 2018–2028. The main research method is microsimulation analysis. The results of the work show that the level of absolute income poverty of the population of the Russian Federation is almost neutral to the retirement age increase. However, the poverty rate of pre-pensioners as a result of raising the retirement age may slightly increase. The magnitude of the effect varies depending on the education of pre-pensioners.
The paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of disability status on employment and hours worked in Russia. We use data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2004–2014 and apply propensity score matching. Our results show that disability status has a significant effect on labor supply of the disabled even if health problems are thoroughly controlled for. Disability status is associated with stable and significant negative effect on employment. At the same time, we do not find a consistent impact of disability status on hours worked.
This paper investigates into the questions of subjective beliefs in luck evaluation and their influence on the individual behavior. Based on the TV show "Deal or Not a Deal" participants behavioral data decision making under risk model with subjective probabilities has been provided. Model parameters are estimated via nonlinear binary regression with heteroscedastic random error. The results are as follows. First, there is statistical evidence that individuals subjective believes in luck influence their decision making. Second, risk-aversion parameters estimates may be strongly biased when parameters responsible for luck evaluation are omitted. Third, hot hand fallacy effect has been revealed: according to model parameters estimates lucky (unlucky) events make people think themselves as luckier (unluckier) persons. These results robustness has been shown by the means of model parameters reevaluation under different random error distribution assumption and sample division according to gender and education level.
The comparative analysis of the age impact on the happiness in Russia and European countries were conducted. The European Social Survey data for 29 countries in 2012 were used. On the basis of the ordered logistic regression U-relationship between age and happiness were obtained for each analyzed countries. By using cluster analysis all countries were divided into several groups, in which the age effect varies greatly. Russia was in a cluster of countries where the level of happiness continues to decline for the older age group (over 60 years). The socio-economic determinants of happiness were also analyzed in different age groups. Income satisfaction and health status were more significant characteristics.
Stability of the national currency exchange rate is an important factor for sustainable economic growth. A number of papers demonstrate that in the oil exporting countries currency exchange rate to the large extent is defined by the international oil prices. However, there are almost no papers which consider dependence of the exchange rate volatility on the volatility of oil prices. In this paper, we use one-dimensional GARCH models and two-dimensional VAR-BEKK models to analyze the dependence of the ruble exchange rate volatility on the oil price volatility. We found out that this dependence is not constant in time and depends on various macroeconomic factors. This dependence significantly increases when oil prices are low and weakens when oil prices are high. The introduction of sanctions has increased the volatility of the ruble exchange rate. Sanctions have also increased the dependence of the ruble exchange rate volatility on oil price volatility. It is also shown that the impact of sanctions decreases with time, what can be interpreted as an adaptation of the Russian economy to sanctions.
A form for an unbiased estimate of the coefficient of determination of a linear regression model is obtained. It is calculated by using a sample from a multivariate normal distribution. This estimate is proposed as an alternative criterion for a choice of regression factors.
In this paper, the Kalman linear filter method is used to decompose non‐synchronous observations of the realized volatility of financial indices (NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100, S&P 500) into unobservable global and local components. It is shown that the volatility of the New York S&P 500 index is a global component, while the Tokyo NIKKEI 225 index, on the contrary, is more sensible to the local news. It is shown that the largest contribution to the global component comes from the observation interval from the closing of the London Exchange to the closing of the exchange in New York (16:30 and 21:00 UTC, respectively). Starting from about 2012–2014, the contribution to the volatility of the global news market is growing from the interval from closing the exchange in New York to closing the exchange in Tokyo (from 21:00 to 6:00 UTC). This can be attributed to the recently increasing influence of the economies of Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea) on the world economy.
This paper presents the testing results for hypotheses which try to explain, how do Russian companies choose such financing sources, as public debt (bonds). Bivariate probit models have been applied on a sample of 1107 companies in the interval from 2015 to 2017. The main aim of this paper is to identify the presence of pseudo bond issues and to determine the factors of their issuance on the Russian market. The paradox of the Russian bond market is that with a decrease of profitability and with a deterioration in turnover, a higher the probability of entering the bond market can be observed. We explain this by the pseudo-placements hiding the schemes of bank lending because of the strict rules for regulating risky loans. Specific determinants of the Russian market are the ownership structure, the chief executive officer’s age (CEO), the number of board members. It has been found, that the selection of determinants for companies with a critical debt level is different from quality companies.
This paper deals with the construction of the price indices for the works of art by Henri Matisse and Kees van Dongen. Two methodologies of index construction are compared: hedonic price regression and Heckit model. The latter takes into account the unsold paintings, which resolves the problem of self-selection bias of the sample and allows computation of more precise price indices. The results are the following: the dynamics of indices demonstrates the presence of negative masterpiece effect for paintings by Matisse. During these periods the return on paintings by less famous artist Kees van Dongen is higher. However according to the most of the estimates the risk measured by standard deviation is higher for him too.
The paper contributes to empirical evidence of tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis. The research is based on a balanced panel data for 116 countries from the World Bank, 1995–2017. International tourism receipts, its share in GDP, and annual number of international tourist arrivals per capita are used as indicators of countries’ specialization on tourism. Granger (non) causality test as long as autoregressive distributed lags models with heterogeneous parameters and control for cross-sectional dependence are in line with the TLG-hypothesis.
The work is devoted to modeling the dynamic relationship of globalization and the level of socio-economic development in Russia. Vector error correction models taking into account structural shifts in trend parameters for short time series are considered. The results of the calculations are compared with the counterparts in Switzerland and the Netherlands. The bidirectionality of this connection is justified. The priority of separate processes of globalization is shown. The relations between its actual and institutional components are determined.
This paper examines the dynamics of the prevalence of pre-entry coaching and corresponding investment in private tutoring before and after the introduction of the Unified State Exam (the USE). Besides, we estimate the effectiveness of private tutoring in 2012, i. e. a few years after the USE has become a prerequisite for admission to university. Data from the Monitoring of Education Markets and Organizations show that the main types of pre-entry coaching are still in demand despite the unification of admission requirements, although the popularity of paid courses at a particular university has declined, and the prevalence of classes with tutors who are not related to university has risen. Within a few years after the introduction of the USE the level of investment in pre-entry coaching in real terms almost has not changed, however the returns from such an investment (expressed in the USE scores) are positive but moderate.
In this paper we research changes of total factor productivity (TFP) and its components in Russian plastic production sector in 2006–2012 by using DEA. We decompose TFP change into technical change, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and mix efficiency changes. The dynamics of TFP and its components are slightly different for various quantile groups of firms. Anyway there is a significant fall for almost all indices in 2009. The results’ robustness is checked by comparison of technical efficiency estimates obtained with DEA and SFA methods.
This paper proposes a procedure for dynamic optimization of an investment portfolio, consisting of stock market indices. SJC-copulas were used to assets statistical characteristics of assets. Copulas allow to measure interdependence between financial instruments, and to build an efficient investment portfolio. Since statistical characteristics of assets are changing with time, the structure of the portfolio is upgrading accordingly. The portfolio is then compared with two benchmarks in terms of return and risk. As a result the proposed procedure provides better performance. Also, the paper studies building a portfolio with short positions
In this paper we analyze the role of ethnicity in the earning differential between individuals with immigrant background and native workers in Russia using nationally representative data of Russian longitudinal monitoring survey from 2004–2012. The results show that not ethnically Russian individuals with immigrant background in average earn less than native workers and ethnically Russian individuals with immigration background.