The article is concerned with the analysis of various conceptual approaches to family and population policy since the formation in the 19th century of the theoretical foundations of the State's impact on the population. Historically, family policy grew out of population policy, and at the same time is a late developed part of social policy. This might explain the large number of contradictions in its ideology in different countries. The article considers the evolution of approaches to family policy in Europe and the United States, with an emphasis on development in the last decades of the 20th and the first decades of the 21st century (fertility and economic development, children's and women's education, reproductive rights, the well-being of various age and gender groups of the population, work-life balance, the reaction to a drop in the birth rate below the level of simple reproduction, the ethical perception by the population of the “imposition” of fertility standards on people, etc.). Various typologies of family policy systems based on different foundations in developed countries are examined; the diversity in this area indicates a lack of consensus and convergence, while none of the national policy systems can be called unequivocally efficient. An important dimension for determining the ideology of family policy at the present time is whether it is addressed to an individual (and to which individual) or to the family as a community (and to which particular form / forms of the family), and how each specific concept resolves the issue of the family’s interaction with the State. Using the example of the United States, it is shown how the idea that it is better not to interfere in family matters gradually changed, so that there appeared not only individual policies to help families, but also a desire to change legislation accordingly. Now, there are more and more countries where family policy is likely to follow social changes, instead of trying to channel them in a predetermined direction.
The demographic revolution (the demographic transition) is changing the reproductive strategy of the species Homo sapiens. The whole evolution of life on Earth, including social evolution since the beginning of human society, has led to this triumph of the K-strategy of reproduction. This universal revolution has a crucial importance for the present stage of human history. The cause-and-effect relationship between economic, social and demographic changes is discussed and the interpretation of the changes in the mass reproductive or family behavior of people as primarily a direct consequence of economic, social or cultural shifts is contested. Such explanations of these changes are redundant, since the main changes in demographic behavior are a response to the necessity of restoring a demographic equilibrium upset by an unprecedented decline in mortality. At the same time, such explanations lead to an underestimation of the impact of demographic change on economic, social and cultural dimensions of the development of modern societies.
The theory of the demographic transition in its present form hinders the vision of this transition as an integral stand-alone process that has its own internal determinants and at the same time has a powerful impact on all social processes, including processes at a global level. The global logic of demographic transition theory is opposed to the widespread local logic, according to which this theory must be justified by the experience of each state.
An attempt is made to overcome the current fragmentation in the description of the demographic transition, its splitting into multiple “transitions” and “revolutions”, and to consider it as a cohesive process, a sequence of inevitable major stages of a single global “chain reaction” initiated by an enormous decline in mortality.
Data from a well-functioning regional population-based cancer registry makes it possible to calculate a system of indicators characterizing the level of cancer morbidity and mortality of regional population at a certain period of time. These indicators are similar in their characteristics to those of life-tables and are virtually independent of the population’s age structure. To some extent they are also independent of the past levels of cancer morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, the scope of analysis of data from Russian regional population-based cancer registries is limited. The completeness of incidence and mortality records also remains unknown. We have conducted an analysis of data from 5 regional population-based cancer registries of the North-West Federal District of Russia for early 2002 to late 2013. This article was designed as a comparative study of two time periods: 2002-2007 and 2008-2013. We have analyzed the changes in incidence and mortality (lethality) from the most common groups of malignant neoplasms. We have analyzed the levels and dynamics of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates alongside tabular indicators such as the total number of incident cases, the total number of deaths, the average age at malignant disease onset, the average life expectancy of those ill with cancer, etc. The main purpose is to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed analytical methods and the entire range of possible research capabilities that will become available should open access to data from Russian population-based cancer registries be granted.
The article presents a forecast of the demographic situation in China until 2050. The author analyzes current demographic changes such as the rapid aging of the population, decrease in the birth rate, reduction in the workforce, gender imbalance, spread of nuclear families, internal labor migration and growth of urbanization. The article shows that the reason for the existing social problems lies in birth control. Family planning policy was actively promoted for 35 years, until 2016. During this time, the spread of small families, partly childless behavior and modern consumer society changed the traditional family and its functions. An analysis of existing forecasts shows that if the key parameters of demographic development are maintained, China’s population will soon reach a maximum of 1.45 billion. Within 8 years the potential growth will be exhausted and there will occur a natural decline of the population. With the increasing numbers of older people and the growth of life expectancy, the working-age population will continue to shrink and the number of children under the age of 14 years will decrease even further. The demographic dividend for the PRC will be over. The economic slowdown will be accompanied by a significant burden on the social security, health care and city registration systems. In order to effectively counter the growing crisis, the government must focus more on solving the problems of rural residents, reforming the pension and health insurance systems, stimulating fertility and supporting families with children.
Sustainable development of society is one of the goals of the millennium, which is impossible without progress in the field of eradicating hunger. According to estimates of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in 2015 about 792.5 million people suffered from chronic hunger. The vast majority of the hungry lived in developing countries, where 60% of child deaths were due to reduced body weight. The level of child malnutrition continues to grow in many African countries. The work explores the problems of child malnutrition in Africa, modeling its contributing factors according to data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations for the period 1991-2014 Panel cointegration models made it possible to obtain estimates of long-term relationships. This is particularly important in the analysis and monitoring of long-term investment programs in Africa. Initially, all countries were divided into three clusters, differing in socio-economic development. The most unfavorable situation was in the countries of the first cluster, with low per capita GDP and a prevalence of childhood anemia (as a measure of hidden hunger) at 68.9%. Further modeling of long-term trends was carried out for the first cluster countries. The analysis showed that a long-term relationship exists between the prevalence of anemia among children (as a measure of hidden hunger), access to improved sources of drinking water, the seriousness of the food deficit, the population and the cost of food imports in total exports of goods.
The processes of modernization are the central research topic of the social sciences. As R. Nisbet noted, the main interest of modern sociology lies in the study of the processes of transition from a closed, hierarchical society to an open, achievement-oriented one. The most important aspect of modernization is the shift in the principles of social regulation from prohibitions imposed externally towards personal freedom and responsibility. One of the behavioral spheres where such shifts are most noticeable is that of sexual relations. In modern societies, sexual pleasure and satisfaction are recognized as important elements of private life that have the right to exist as such, and not only as a necessary condition for procreation. The article analyzes the dynamics of attitudes of Russians in the field of sexual relations, a comparative country analysis is conducted.
The article presents for the first time an analysis of the continuous statistical data series on deaths from road accidents in Russia since 1956. The total number of deaths for 1956-2012 exceeded 1.4 million. The increase in mortality from traffic accidents started in the 1970s; since the beginning of the 1990s the lag behind most developed countries has been growing. At 2012 mortality levels about 85-95% of Russia’s deaths from road accidents were excessive compared with the number of deaths that would have occurred at age-specific mortality rates from this cause in selected European countries. Both the current characteristics of the general level of motorization and the main indicators of traffic injuries, such as the number of deaths per 100 thousand persons, per 10 thousand vehicles or per number of kilometers traveled, show that in terms of transport development Russia lags 40-50 years behind Western countries. The article also examines the history of the inclusion of mortality from road accidents in the International Classification of Causes of Death (ICD) and the problems of reflecting this mortality in Russian mortality statistics. Gender-specific features and trends in Russian mortality from traffic accidents are analyzed, as well as the differences in mortality for different categories of road users (drivers, passengers and pedestrians) for the maximum possible time period. International comparisons that allow understanding the extent of Russian backwardness and seeing the long-term unsustainable trends in mortality from road accidents are presented. A conclusion is made concerning the need to expand research into the problems of road safety, indispensable for developing effective programs that enhance safety and for catching up with the many countries ahead of Russia
The book is a significant contribution to the study of the history of collectivization in the USSR and its consequences and, more broadly, of the history of the USSR in the 1920s and 1930s. For the demographer - reader, it is especially important that the book’s author focuses on the demographic perspective of the general history of the country and assesses the demographic losses associated with collectivization. S. Maksudov's book is an important event in Russian demography and will be of interest not only to demographers, historians and statisticians, but also to everyone who values the historical memory of collectivization.