The article presents the results of predictive studies of the development of new energy sources using the example of wind energy technologies in the countries of the North Sea Basin. Predictive estimates (based on the mathematical technique of learning curves), the dynamics of installed power and the generation of electric power by floating wind power stations, as well as the processes of replacing traditional energy with developing energy technologies in various countries, including Russia, are considered. The economic characteristics of energy technologies at an early stage of development are given.
The paper considers a potential improvement in the stability of the Russian government bond market by establishing a system of primary dealers. The existing world models of primary dealership are identified and their relations with national market peculiarities are determined based on the analysis of statistics and regulatory documents of 22 countries. The revealed regularities allow the authors to propose a private dealership model adapted to the specifics of the domestic economy.
The article presents the results of a survey of manufacturing enterprises conducted to study the nature of inflation expectations of Russian companies. The survey data show a high heterogeneity and weak anchoring of inflation expectations (i.e., their instability in the case of short-term inflation fluctuations), which indicates the continuation of adaptation processes in the Russian economy in the transition to inflation targeting policies. In this situation, an important task for the central bank is to strengthen the impact of monetary policy measures on the process of generating inflation expectations of enterprises.
The article substantiates the growing destructive impact of imbalance in the level and disproportions of development between social and economic functions of cities in economic growth in modern-day Russia. It presents a set of tools for functional typologies of cities based on identity of levels of social and economic functions in cities, which is different from the existing pool of instruments available for regional research. The typology of cities is built based on experimental calculations of integral indices of social and economic functions of cities. The study substantiates a need to monitor balance between social and economic functions of cities for practical application in day-to-day city management and strategic planning.
The article is written based on the project of the Center for Migration Research, carried out in 2013 with the support of the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in Moscow project “Protecting the Rights of Muscovites in Mass Migration.” Data from the quantitative survey (conducted in the summer of 2013 with a sample size of 800 respondents, i.e., 600 people in Moscow and 200 migrant workers), and expert interviews, focus groups with Moscow employers, as well as official statistic were used. The study assessed the attitudes of Muscovites to both external and internal migrants from regions of Russia.
We propose a method for estimating the upper limit for integration effect associated with the growth in comparative advantages resulting from industrial cooperation at the manufacturing industry level and apply it to the case of the Eurasian Customs Union (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). The key building blocks of the approach are the link between a country’s comparative advantages in final and intermediate products and empirically defined productivity gap between growing and shrinking enterprises (in terms of employment).
This paper presents various approaches to the definition of the innovative activity of the population based on the results of a study performed by the Institute of Socioeconomic Development of Territories, Russian Academy of Sciences, in Vologda oblast in November 2012 by using econometric methods (probit models) for the assessment of the population’s creativity in relation to various social, demographic, and economic characteristics of respondents.
The main directions of the impact of defense expenditures on the economy have been analyzed. It has been stated that there are no clear criteria for attributing defense spending to unproductive budget expenditures. Defense expenditures have been assessed for reasonableness and sufficiency. Alternatives of the spending budget funds have been considered. Assessments of the level of Russian defense expenditures necessary for national security in the next 10 years have been given.
Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate.
The Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis approach enables a fairly comprehensive and detailed analysis of the economic growth sources using the input-output model. The active use of this approach is currently hampered by the lack of a reliable instrumental method for constructing symmetrical input-output tables and deflators that permit the output and import indicators to be recalculated by types of products for different years into constant prices, as well as by ambiguity of interpretations of the content of growth sources. The paper discusses the ways to overcome these methodological problems and gives an example of the experimental use of the structural decomposition analysis approach based on the data of the inputoutput tables of the Russian Federation for 2011–2015.
The paper presents the results of modeling the pricing mechanism in the residential real estate market (by using Moscow as an example). The key factors that influence the monthly and annual dynamics of real estate prices are revealed; their quantitative impact is assessed using regression analysis methods. The close dependence of the real estate price on the change in the US dollar-ruble exchange rate in a monthly model with a distributed lag is revealed. In the annual model, the best explanatory force is possessed by factors such as the dynamics of the Urals oil prices and the change in the average cost of basic materials, parts, and structures purchased by construction companies in the current year. The study also proposes a new indicator, which, is believed by the authors to approximate the change in the propensity to save in high-income groups of the population.
The article presents several scenarios for the development of the situation in the Russian banking system depending on different variants of changes in the Bank of Russia key rate. The scenarios are calculated using an optimization model of the Russian banking system, built on the principles of general equilibrium models, and an econometric add-on that allows the use of consistent scenarios of exogenous variables.
This paper has analyzed the Russian ICT Ecosystem based on the concept of innovation ecosystems. A qualitative model of the ICT Ecosystem (in the matrix form) has been proposed that is based on an analysis of the exchange of resources (commodity-material resources, current financial resources, capital, manpower resources) among participants in the ecosystem. The constructed quality model and primary analysis of the statistical data were used as the basis for obtaining a number of important conclusions regarding the structural features of the Russian ICT Ecosystem.
A quantitative model of Russia’s information and communication technologies (ICT) ecosystem has been proposed that describes the main relationships between its participants, as well as the impact of environmental factors on the functioning of the ICT ecosystem. Based on the model, we have assessed the long-term (until 2030) potential for the development of Russia’s ICT sector in the case of the state’s active and stimulating strategy and the formation of an advanced system of institutions. We have also evaluated the contribution of the ICT sector to the macroeconomic dynamics while implementing the target scenario.
The role of the fuel-and-energy complex (FEC) in the Russian economy has been described and A quantitative assessment of the impact of key parameters of the fuel-and-energy complex sectors on the volume and dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators has been provided. In particular, the sensitivity of the GDP growth to changes in energy exports has been analyzed.
The article analyzes problems of planning research and technological development. We consider two lines of theoretical concepts of planning, i.e., economic and mathematical versus empirical and evolu tionary. Problems of the statistical basis for constructing economic and mathematical models of scientific and technological development are studied in detail. The example of Russia is used to show that the weakness of the theoretical framework of planning leads to inconsistencies in government priorities of scientific and tech nological development.
This article has considered an approach to forecasting the number and age–sex composition of disabled people aged 20 and older in Russia. The approach is based on hypotheses that connect the dynamics of disability level with mortality change scenarios in demographic projections. The results show that a decrease in the number of disabled people at ages up to 60 years and an increase in their number after the age 60 years, as well as an increase in disability prevalence among the population aged over 20 years due to demographic aging should be expected in the coming decades.
A brief analysis of the draft document “Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight” (of December 19, 2017) is presented. The authors, who are leading researchers at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, reveal discrepancies between a series of provisions in the document and the current level of Russia’s economic development, primarily in science and technology. The document provides virtually no economic rationale or analysis of what causes the loss of science and technology potential in Russia. The attempt to foresee the technological development of individual Russian regions is unsuccessful. The general conclusion is that the foresight document does not provide a single platform for the development and implementation of strategic planning documents in the field of science and technology.