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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 208
by name
by year
Smirnykh L. I. Foresight and STI Governance. 2016. No. 4. P. 60-70.

The level of innovation activity of the Russian enterprises is inferior to the level of innovation activity of enterprises in developed countries. At the same time, Russian enterprises actively use fixed-term contracts, which help them to reduce the labor costs and adapt to changes in demand, to increase the flexibility of labor and improve the selection of employees at the workplaces. Fixed-term contracts can contribute to innovation, because they enhance the flexibility of labor relations and create savings in the use of workers. However, fixed-term contracts can reduce the likelihood of innovation because they reduce investment in human capital, leading to a reduction in labor productivity. Which trends dominate in labor relations is the subject of this study.For the study we used data about enterprises from the annual Russian Enterprises Survey in 2014. The sample is representative for Russia and includes small, medium and large enterprises with more than 30 employees in seven sectors (mining, industry, construction, transport and communications, trade, finance, business services). For the analysis, we used bivariate probit model, Heckman correction model and probit model with continuous endogenous regressor (the share of workers with fixed-term labor contracts). The results showed that fixed-term contracts have a positive effect on the innovation activity of enterprises only when they are used in a limited quantity. With an increase in the percentage of workers with fixed-term contracts, the likelihood of innovation activity of enterprises declines.

Added: Nov 9, 2016
Belousova V., Chichkanov N. Foresight and STI Governance. 2016. Vol. 10. No. 4. P. 46-58.

In recent years, knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) have become extremely important in the knowledge-based economy. KIBS concentrate a well-qualified workforce and create high levels of valueadded services, serve as a driver for the innovationbased development of many countries [Santos-Vijande et al., 2013]. However, the growth rates of this sector in Russia considerably fell after the 2008 crisis; some KIBS-industries could not even reach pre-crisis volumes of production and the share of this sector in GDP significantly declined [Berezin, Doroshenko, 2015]. The crisis trends in Russian economy at the end of 2014 and at the beginning of 2015 had a strong negative impact on KIBS. We show that the share of companies with decreasing revenues has dramatically grown in all industries. The demand side has also changed: the client base is now more unstable and customers more regularly fail to fulfill contract obligations. An industry analysis reveals significant divergences in the rates and trajectories for development of Russian KIBS industries. However, the sector heterogeneity might be also found in KIBS of other countries. The paper is based on both survey of 656 Russian KIBS producers and in-depth interviews with 24 leading KIBS experts.

Added: Dec 6, 2016
Doroshenko M. E., Miles I., Vinogradov D. Foresight and STI Governance. 2014. Vol. 8. No. 4. P. 24-38.

Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (KIBS) are seen to be a core sector of the so-called 'knowledge economy', and already play an important role in developed economies. The KIBS providers are both innovate themselves and provide their clients with knowledge and learning opportunities. This paper examines the status of KIBS in Russia, and explores some key issues in their role in innovation using data from surveys of KIBS firms and their clients.

Added: Jun 26, 2018
Marina Doroshenko, Ian Miles, Vinogradov D. Foresight and STI Governance. 2014. Vol. 8. No. 4. P. 24-39.

Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (KIBS) are seen to be core features of the so-called ‘knowledge economy’, and they already play an important role in developed economies. They both innovate themselves and provide their clients with important knowledge and learning opportunities. This paper examines the status of KIBS in Russia, and explores some key issues in their role in innovation using data from surveys of KIBS firms and their clients in Russia. We note that KIBS are often highly customized, and many new services prove difficult to replicate. KIBS are closely tailored to solving the problems of specific customers, and thus these services typically involve KIBS consumers in a co-production process. Both the formal supplier and the formal user of the service are engaged together in service production, allowing for mutual knowledge transfers and learning. Use of KIBS is shown to affect customers' propensity to innovate, confirming the importance of this sector for the innovation system.

Added: Dec 24, 2014
Alexander Apokin, Dmitry BelousovI, Vladimir Salnikov et al. Foresight and STI Governance. 2015. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 6-17.

The primary long-term socio-economic challenges facing Russia – both global and country-specific in nature — drive demand for a range of technologies. We explore several groups of challenges, namely urbanization, demographic, socio-economic, the consequences of ageing, geopolitical, restricted access to key technological competences, climate change and its ecological consequences, as well as technological challenges largely associated with risks in ICT and biotech development, and the emergence of so-called ‘killer technologies’ that induce structural transformation in the economy. We identify four groups of key factors inf luencing demand for new technology. First, those factors that strengthening Russia’s role as a provider of key natural resources for the global economy. Second, of equal importance are those factors that support import substitution of various products of the global market, including electronic components, chemicals, and food products. Third, developing centres of technological competences plays a significant role, especially in export-oriented, manufacturing, and services sectors. These include nuclear energy, software, weapons and military equipment, military aircraft, and energy machinery. Finally, technological advancement would occur by integrating Russia within global technological value chains with external system integrators in pharmaceuticals, machine-building, petroleum products, and some ICT sub-sectors.

Added: Oct 20, 2016
Adegbile A., Sarpong D. Foresight and STI Governance. 2015. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 73-80.
Scenario development is widely used to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Despite this fact, managerial fixation on short term performance objectives, their penchant fear of the unpredictable future and their sheer inability to face the alternative futures generated in the scenario planning exercises has led to little value capture from this activity. The paper analyzes the factors that determine the willingness of decision-makers, to be actively involved in scenario planning. The authors suggest that effective incentives to promote the interest in this activity and its impact can be found, if we consider the decision-makers, as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, expectations, and competencies. In particular, the paper hypothesizes and validates the assumptions that the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, commitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are more likely to be expressed in the growing interest of managers and stakeholders to develop scenarios. The presented results are tested on the most common — intuitive logic approach to scenario planning. The authors expect future research to go further to empirically test the proposed hypotheses, and if possible, ascertain whether similar hypotheses could be generated in the context of other tried and tested scenario planning methodologies such as the probabilistic modified trends, competitive intelligence and cross impact analysis.
Added: Jan 22, 2016
Belousova V., Chichkanov N. Foresight and STI Governance. 2015. Vol. 9. No. 3. P. 26-39.

Mobile banking is one of the most dynamic developing types of distance banking services. For the recent years in Russia, the amount of individual bank accounts with the ability of the distance access through mobile devices increased more than by 20 times. Every year more and more banks start to offer mobile banking services. Despite this, the popularity of mobile banking applications is lower than the popularity of other banking services. Thus the problem of mobile banking adoption by customers is still an extremely important problem.

The authors analyzed foreign surveys devoted to the exploration of the incentives to mobile banking usage. The model developed by the authors is based on the well-known theoretical and empirical approaches and taken into account Russian peculiarity. As a theoretical basis, the most widespread theories describing technology acceptance and innovation diffusion were used. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) approach, the authors verified key incentives to use mobile banking by mobile Internet users i.a. perceived usefulness and perceived efforts.

These results are in accordance with most foreign surveys in this subject area. The findings also will be helpful for banks as they allow these financial institutions to highlight the cutting edge of mobile banking in Russia.

Added: Oct 1, 2015
Hake J., Proskuryakova L. N. Foresight and STI Governance. 2018. Vol. 12. No. 4. P. 6-9.

The introductory article to the special issue “The Future of Energy” is devoted to promising areas of development of the global energy complex, the assessment of their contribution to overcoming global challenges, and ensuring sustainable development. The trends under consideration differ significantly in the rate of evolution. Prospective development trajectories present both opportunities and risks specific to the fuel and energy complex of a particular country. Success in using emerging advantages and leveling threats depends upon a combination of internal and external factors, including the choice of public policy measures and the effectiveness of their implementation.

Added: Dec 29, 2018
Streltsova E. Foresight and STI Governance. 2014. Vol. 8. No. 1. P. 24-35.

The significance of biotechnologies for solving global problems and making social and economic progress is recognized in many countries, including Russia. Managing this field requires up-to-date and reliable information about technological trends and the emergence and diffusion of innovations. This paper examines the possibility of applying a patent-based methodological approach to the study of biotechnologies in Russia, and assesses its explanatory potential.

Added: Oct 13, 2014
Gershman M., Kuznetsova T. Foresight and STI Governance. 2014. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. 58-69.

Strengthening the motivation, quality and efficiency of researchers’ work is a pressing issue in all countries. One way to address this challenge is by introducing flexible remuneration mechanisms which are country-specific yet still share certain basic principles such as the relationship between compensation and research productivity. Improving researchers’ remuneration is particularly urgent now in Russia given the systemic problems in the country’s R&D sector and given new policy measures adopted since 2012 to try to address the problem of compensation for researchers. This paper contributes new evidence from Russian researchers, R&D managers, and government representatives collected via a survey and focus group discussions on the desirability and efficiency of the current remuneration policy. Although most members of Russia’s scientific community do not question the necessity and relevance of the government’s ‘efficient contract’ initiative in the R&D sector, the implementation of this policy has had a more mixed response. The reasons and effects of this controversy are discussed below.

Added: Oct 1, 2014
Gurkov I. B., Morgunov E., Saidov Z. et al. Foresight and STI Governance. 2018. Vol. 12. No. 2. P. 24-35.

We present the dynamics of the position of Russian manufacturing subsidiaries of Western MNCs in 2012–2016. The analysis is based on interviews with the heads of subsidiaries, a repeated survey of plant managers and on secondary data on subsidiaries’ activities. We propose a new portfolio model that desalinates “the core” and “the periphery” of the corporation and further allocates peripheral subsidiaries into several classes depending on intensity of value transfer from and to a subsidiary and the possibility to apply a “standard” set of instruments for capital allocation decisions. We argue that in the current situation of the Russian economy the only possibility for Russian manufacturing subsidiaries to remain close to the corporate core is to demonstrate high net profitability of assets. Otherwise subsidiaries are downgraded into “sticks”. That position enables subsidiary managers to enjoy high autonomy and wide subsidiary mandates, but endanger the long-term perspectives on maintaining innovativeness and competitiveness of subsidiaries.

Added: Nov 1, 2019
Kutsenko E. Foresight and STI Governance. 2015. No. 9. P. 32-55.

Leading countries consider regional clusters as an efficient tool of interaction between actors of a region’s innovation system, which allows generating new poles of economic growth. There is a plenty of literature describing positive experience of clusters’ public support. In Russia, this process is still at an early stage. Russia’s strategy of innovative development until 2020 includes a program for supporting pilot innovative regional clusters. The aim is to make these clusters self-sustained.

Emergence and outlook of a cluster’s evolution are largely dependent on a range of basic conditions, such as: the urban environment; available critical mass of specialized companies; internal competition and openness to the outside world. There is always a risk that without government support the cluster will not be able to shift to the desired trajectory.

The paper presents a detailed overview of research devoted to the best practices of implementing state cluster policy. It provides a detailed analysis of the characteristic features of successful clusters, evaluates matching of Russia’s pilot innovative regional clusters to these criteria, as well as quantitative comparison between domestic and foreign clusters, suggests a model for sustainable cluster development.

The empirical base of the study is the development programmes of pilot innovative regional clusters, submitted to Ministry of Economic Development of Russia through 2012 in the framework of a special contest, as well as the results of the survey, commissioned by the JSC "Russian Venture Company" at the end of 2013.

Added: Oct 13, 2015
Zemtsov S., Barinova V., Pankratov A. et al. Foresight and STI Governance. 2016. Vol. 10. No. 3. P. 34-52.

In the current climate of sanctions imposed against Russia by several countries in 2014, special attention should be given to high-tech sectors of the economy as a key source of import substitution on the domestic market. One of the important policy measures is to support the development of high-tech, specialized clusters by forming new linkages and strengthening existing ones between small and medium-sized businesses, large enterprises, and research organizations. The starting point for an effective cluster policy is to define areas with high potential for clustering of these industries. The paper presents an original method to identify potential clusters and tests the method on Russian regions. We show that most of the state-supported pilot innovative territorial clusters are being developed in regions and sectors that have a high level of cluster potential. A typology of existing clusters depends on the index of clustering potential. We identified regions that have similar or comparatively favourable conditions for creating clusters in the pilot sectors.

Added: Sep 25, 2016
Linton J. Foresight and STI Governance. 2018. Vol. 12. No. 3. P. 6-12.

Many countries are directing their attention to the support of technological innovation with the intent to obtain economic and social benefits at home while positioning themselves for high margin, high technology export markets. The under-considered and under-exploited role of arts, humanities and social science in innovation is explored in this study. Examples of programs and activities in a variety of countries are illustrated. Insight into why the arts, humanities and social sciences are important to the generation of social and economic benefits through innovation is  offered. Furthermore, recommendations are provided for better accessing the benefits that the arts, humanities and social science can provide.

Added: Oct 29, 2018
Solntsev S., Roshchin S., Vasiliev D. Foresight and STI Governance. 2017. Vol. 11. No. 4. P. 33-43.

The article considers recruiting via the internet as an organizational innovation in Russian companies. Using data from a survey of employers and RLMS-HSE, we measured the scale of internet-use by employers for recruiting and by employees for the job search, and the factors influencing them. In general, the characteristics of employees and workplaces were in line with one another. Amid companies, internet use was more common in the retail sector, among privately owned and financially successful firms. The internet was more actively used by workers with higher or specialized education from big cities. Internet search complements other search channels and has become the second most popular channel after searching for work through relatives and friends.

Added: May 24, 2017
Streltsova E., Kuzmin G. N. Foresight and STI Governance. 2019. Vol. 13. No. 3. P. 41-49.

The paper discusses the technological specialization and patent portfolios of the Russian ‘technograds’ – the cities which are the key actors to contribute to the development of new technologies in the country. A patent analysis used for the study allowed us to identify technological domains where these cities have significant competitive advantage and high potential for further progress. According to the research-intensity of the domains prevailing in their technological specialization, the technograds might be divided into three categories: oriented towards mostly high technologies (Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, Tomsk), low technologies (Krasnodar, Perm), and those with mixed specialization including both high and low tech (Voronezh, Ufa, Kazan, Novosibirsk, Ekaterinburg, and Samara).

 To achieve the aim of the research, a new methodological approach was elaborated to analyze patent data for individual cities and other smaller geographical units. As a result, the paper might be of interest not only for practitioners and decision makers on the regional and municipal levels, but also for researchers in the fields of regional economics, economic geography and economics of science, technology and innovation.

Added: Jun 25, 2019
Shmatko N. A., Volkova G. Foresight and STI Governance. 2017. Vol. 11. No. 2. P. 54-66.

Most current studies of highly-skilled personnel argue that the intrinsic personal motivation is their main feature and this motivation has a non-linear connection with external management actions. In order to attract scientists to the sector of research and development, as well as to maintain the competitiveness of national science, a special environment must be created, which will encourage a high level of self-motivation among researchers. An analysis of motivation patterns of researchers provided in this paper is based on data from the international project, «Careers of Doctorate Holders», (CDH) and its Russian counterpart, «Monitoring survey of Highly Qualified R&D Personnel». One of the goals was to investigate the stability and variability of researcher’s motivation during the different periods of a career, such as professional choice, current work activity and a hypothetical situation of a job change.

The eight most common patterns of motivation were identified and they can be considered as the basic motivational structures of researchers. Most of these patterns include a focus on the creative and innovative nature of scientific work. The second important component is the independence and relative autonomy, which is typical for research activity. Economic motives are rarely important when choosing an academic career; however, they play an important instrumental role in the actual scientific work, since an appropriate material base is required for the successful achievement of a researcher’s professional goals. A hypothetical situation of a job change, including moving abroad (for a long or limited time) also shows the priority of internal personal motives over external ones, which are associated with the material conditions.

The opportunity for professional and personal achievements plays the role of a trigger for the high-level motivation of R&D personnel. The main drivers of research motivation are self-realization, improvement of skills and competences, therefore the professional environment must be organized properly to promote the advancement of intellectual workers. Management based primarily on the external rewards may even reduce personal motivation, since it transforms people’s natural enthusiasm and interest to only material goods. The obtained research results give us reason to argue that the Russian scientific policy agenda must include the creation and maintenance of adequate conditions in which research potential can be fully realized and where the personal reputation of the scientist will be recognized.

Added: Jul 4, 2017
Kutsenko E., Islankina E., Kindras A. Foresight and STI Governance. 2018. Vol. 12. No. 1. P. 25-45.

Less than a decade since its official introduction, smart specialization, which guides the selection of priorities for innovative development, has proven to be a far-reaching academic idea and political instrument. In the European Union, smart specialization is mentioned among ex ante conditions for receiving subsidies from European structural and investment funds. Its core principles are considered in innovation strategies in Australia, South Korea, and some countries of Latin America. In Russia, smart specialization is also being introduced in the agenda of policymakers.

The paper seeks to reveal which levels of governance should be involved in the design of a smart specialization strategy and which factors should be the focus of attention when using this approach. The research is based upon an analysis of the innovation strategies of seven Russian regions, conducted with the adapted RIS3 Self-Assessment Wheel.

The results of the study empirically confirm that most principles of smart specialization are considered, at least formally, in the traditional innovation strategies of Russian regions. At the same time, without common rules for the selection, verification, and synchronization of innovative priorities as well as a single analytical database, organizational support, and expertise, even regions considered strong innovators fail to find their smart specialization.

Added: Feb 6, 2019
Bosch A., Vonortas N. Foresight and STI Governance. 2019. Vol. 13. No. 1. P. 35-47.

This paper is about the policy concept of smart specialization (RIS3) and its potential for application in emerging economies. This is an important issue as emerging economies continue to struggle against the forces of globalization and targeted investments through RIS3 strategies that may help them boost their (regional) innovation economies. Thus far, RIS3 has mostly been implemented by industrialized EU economies. Due to the structural differences, success in emerging economies may require more extensive groundwork prior to the implementation of an RIS3 strategy. This is specifically noted in the Brazilian example: smart specialization requires careful planning, the country needs to address some of its general issues with lagging innovation before it can focus on successfully implementing an RIS3 strategy. We believe that such an approach would be appropriate for other countries at similar stages of economic development.

Added: Sep 5, 2019
Dobryakova M. S., Kotelnikova Z. Foresight and STI Governance. 2015. Vol. 9. No. 1. P. 6-19.

Strategic documents that reflect future S&T priorities are often formulated without sufficiently taking into account the social context of S&T developments. Using the concept of the social construction of technology (SCOT), the paper discusses the capabilities of social sciences for a deeper contextual analysis when setting priorities and, consequently, for helping to make the diffusion of advanced technologies more efficient. It proposes prospective areas of sociological research, whose development may help optimize efforts for the diffusion of new technologies.

Added: Oct 7, 2015
Knyazeva H. Foresight and STI Governance. 2020. Vol. 14. No. 4. P. 34-45.

The modern theory of complex systems changes our view of historical processes, accompanied by uncertainties, instabilities and ambiguities. The knowledge of this theory allows us to master a system or holistic thinking, and to understand the laws of functioning and growth of not just structural, but dynamic complexity. Uncertainties and chaotic elements that indicate any state of crisis are not only negative factors that we should beware of and not without fear to worry about them. We can learn to manage them and use them in the way of renewal of social systems, producing innovations. The strategic vision of complex systems evolution becomes an effective tool for decision making and scenarios planning based on our participatory activities with alternative futures. The article examines the case of Shell Corporation, which has been using scenario thinking technologies since the early 1970s, which has given it incredible competitive advantages and incentives for rapid growth and transformation into an international energy giant.

Added: Dec 25, 2020