The number of papers addressing the forecasting of the infectious disease morbidity is rapidly growing due to accumulation of available statistical data. This article surveys the major approaches for the short-term and the long-term morbidity forecasting. Their limitations and the practical application possibilities are pointed out. The paper presents the conventional time series analysis methods — regression and autoregressive models; machine learning-based approaches — Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks; case-based reasoning; filtration-based techniques. The most known mathematical models of infectious diseases are mentioned: classical equation-based models (deterministic and stochastic), modern simulation models (network and agent-based).
In this paper we propose a method of mathematical modeling of the epidemiological situation, taking into account external factors. An algorithm for finding the parameters of the model based on the results of observations, based on the method of least squares. Investigated the dependence of the epidemiological situation of the various parameters and external factors, as well as the ability to manage the development of epidemics by influencing these factors. Proposed the concept of the system of monitoring the epidemic situation, taking into account the external risks.
Recent advances in neuroscience gave rise to new fascinating ideas and issues in social sciences. However, neuronal processes are still perceived as irrelevant for a typical sociological research. This is partially the sequence of a limited explanatory power of social neuroscience rooted in the mind-body problem. But sociological research ignoring brain processes is equally weak. We consider key features and problems both of neurophysiologic and sociological explanations, taking maternal behavior as an example. We then attempt to formulate conditions of integrative neurosociological explanation, and propose a three-factor model of maternal behavior.
Basic components of the cognitive activity distortion peculiarities among young men and women with schizophrenic spectrum disorders research results are analyzed in the article. Pattern, specific to the persons with schizophrenic spectrum disorders is descript in the article: they have formation and interdependence of the cognitive activity’s basic components specific.
Objective. To identify the most frequently occurring symptoms resulting from the affection of internal and external skull base in patients with benign tumors of the anterior and middle cranial base. Material and methods. The authors analyzed a complex of history, clinical, and instrumental data as well as results of combined treatment of 642 patients with benign tumors of the anterior and middle cranial base operated Medical Research between 2007 and 2011. Results. Neurological signs and symptoms in patients with benign tumors of the anterior cranial base, parasellar region, and middle cranial fossa were studied. In the majority of cases, the tumor extended extracranially. The most common groups of symptoms were identified and described, the most important groups are presented in the diagrams. The proposed scheme is applicable also for malignant tumors or other mass lesions of the same localization. Conclusion. Effective treatment and selection of the best management of a patient depends on modern medical approaches and techniques including neuroimaging. Careful assessment of symptoms is crucial in detection of tumors in the early stage. Dynamic monitoring of the patient using the proposed scheme will contribute to early detection of tumor recurrence or progression.
Goal. To develop a system for differential diagnosis of rhinitis allergic and infectious etiologies. Materials and methods. Data 217 pediatric patients with infectious and allergic rhinitis were used to construct a diagnostic system based on neural network technology. Results. Created the system of the differential diagnosis, allowing using a minimal number of input parameters with high precision to make the diagnosis "infectious rhinitis and allergic rhinitis". The virtual computer experiments to assess the role of passive Smoking on the prognosis of these diseases have shown conflicting results, requiring further investigation. Conclusions. The developed diagnostic system can be used on the principle of "pre-diagnosis of allergic rhinitis without the allergist", work pediatricians, internists, General practitioners, and also for screening diagnosis in terms of "health centres".
The article analyzes the changes in the Russian Federation's state policy in the field of birth control in the post-Soviet period and their impact on the access to abortion and its incidence in the country.