The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2—0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in 2035—2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn’t ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.
The article develops methodological approach to the analysis of groups of interests' influence on the choice of Russia's development strategy. It is possible to pass on to the analysis of specific issues of economic policy by forming several sub-groups in every analytical group. The article also considers the structure of Russian economy which was formed as a result of transformational crisis' influence on Soviet economy, and relevant international comparisons. Main alternative ways of transition to innovational development are the renewal of Soviet triangle economy (the scenario Mobilization) and complex institutional changes (the scenario Modernization).
We study hiring decisions made by competing universities in a dynamic framework, focusing on the structure of university finance. Universities with annual state-approved financing underinvest in high-quality faculty, while universities that receive a significant part of their annual income from returns on endowments hire fewer but better faculty and provide long-term contracts. If university financing is linked to the number of students, there is additional pressure to hire low-quality short-term staff. An increase in the university's budget might force the university to switch its priorities from research to teaching in equilibrium. We employ our model to discuss the necessity for state-financed endowments, and investigate the political economics of competition between universities, path-dependence in the development of the university system, and higher-education reform in emerging market economies.
The global economy is in recession due to the pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. According to available estimates, Russia's GDP in 2020 will fall by 2–8%, so that in its consequences the current crisis may be tougher than the crises of 1998 and 2008. In the coming years, the Russian economy will have to recover and enter a new long-term growth path. At what expense and in which industries will this happen?
The report based on the experience of previous crises using industry accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data, examined possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the crisis of 2020. By analogy with the recovery after 2008, it is likely to be associated with increased demand for raw materials on world markets and the reaction of the Russian oil and gas complex. Stagnation after 2008 is due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in the expanded mining complex, as well as the cessation of technological make-up. Growth stimulation measures should include finding ways to increase the efficiency of the expanded mining complex, stimulating the adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving existing adaptation channels in times of crisis - for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains.
The article contains the analysis of initiative budgeting practices in five Russian regions: Altay, Stavropol, Kirov, Tver and Tula regions. Initiative (participatory) budgeting – the practice of engaging citizens into decision making on budget funds allocation, which is at the junction of formal and informal institutions: it is included in the system of state and municipal finances and is based on social ties and communication mechanisms in local communities. The article revealed that initiative budgeting has become a systemic managerial practice is the analysed regions, which is used to distribute funds between municipalities on a competitive basis. The regularities of citizen participation, changes in the structure of their preferences regarding public infrastructure during the implementation of initiative budgeting programs were identified, conclusions on the relationship between types of projects and co-financing by citizens, on the specifics of stimulating community involvement in public decision-making, the relationship between the theme of projects and the level of public support were drawn.
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. These models allow us to assess how likely is the change of macroeconomic dynamics from positive to negative and vice versa. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of financial sector variables into equation can significantly improve the predictive power of the models of the turning points of business cycles. At the same time, models with financial and real sector variables obtained in the paper outperform the “naïve” models based only on the leading indicator of GDP in the OECD methodology due to either a lower level of noise (recession model) or a higher predictive power (model of the recovery from recession).