The article develops methodological approach to the analysis of groups of interests' influence on the choice of Russia's development strategy. It is possible to pass on to the analysis of specific issues of economic policy by forming several sub-groups in every analytical group. The article also considers the structure of Russian economy which was formed as a result of transformational crisis' influence on Soviet economy, and relevant international comparisons. Main alternative ways of transition to innovational development are the renewal of Soviet triangle economy (the scenario Mobilization) and complex institutional changes (the scenario Modernization).
We study hiring decisions made by competing universities in a dynamic framework, focusing on the structure of university finance. Universities with annual state-approved financing underinvest in high-quality faculty, while universities that receive a significant part of their annual income from returns on endowments hire fewer but better faculty and provide long-term contracts. If university financing is linked to the number of students, there is additional pressure to hire low-quality short-term staff. An increase in the university's budget might force the university to switch its priorities from research to teaching in equilibrium. We employ our model to discuss the necessity for state-financed endowments, and investigate the political economics of competition between universities, path-dependence in the development of the university system, and higher-education reform in emerging market economies.
The global economy is in recession due to the pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. According to available estimates, Russia's GDP in 2020 will fall by 2–8%, so that in its consequences the current crisis may be tougher than the crises of 1998 and 2008. In the coming years, the Russian economy will have to recover and enter a new long-term growth path. At what expense and in which industries will this happen?
The report based on the experience of previous crises using industry accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data, examined possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the crisis of 2020. By analogy with the recovery after 2008, it is likely to be associated with increased demand for raw materials on world markets and the reaction of the Russian oil and gas complex. Stagnation after 2008 is due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in the expanded mining complex, as well as the cessation of technological make-up. Growth stimulation measures should include finding ways to increase the efficiency of the expanded mining complex, stimulating the adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving existing adaptation channels in times of crisis - for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains.
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. These models allow us to assess how likely is the change of macroeconomic dynamics from positive to negative and vice versa. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of financial sector variables into equation can significantly improve the predictive power of the models of the turning points of business cycles. At the same time, models with financial and real sector variables obtained in the paper outperform the “naïve” models based only on the leading indicator of GDP in the OECD methodology due to either a lower level of noise (recession model) or a higher predictive power (model of the recovery from recession).
In 1981 in Chile the Pinochet regime reformed the state-led PAYG pension system into the private pension system. Chilean experiment attracted the attention of both politicians and experts around the world and laid the foundations for the new pension orthodoxy. As a result, more than 30 countries (mostly in Latin America and in the former Soviet bloc) followed the Chilean model and privatized pension systems. The paper considers the design and results of the Chilean pension reform. The aim of the paper is to show the specific path of transformation of theoretical concepts into actual economic policy. The research provides two key results. The first is that although pension reforms of recent decades were influenced by the ideas of liberalism, their design and implementation in fact suited the pattern of the new paternalism characteristic of “neoliberalism”. The second is that implementation of the Chilean model in other countries was due to the persuasiveness of the discourse of the new pension orthodoxy rather than to actual performance of the Chilean pension system.
The experience of the last decade has demonstrated that the state policy on the extension of competitive procedures in public procurement has been challenged by the attempts of customers and suppliers to restrict competition. The mass survey of customers and suppliers carried out by the Institute for Industrial and Market Studies in 2017 showed that about a half of the customersfollowed a strategy of contracting predetermined suppliers in 2014—2016. Moreover, different explanations of this practice (justification, accusation or a combination of both reasons) allowed us to identify groups of suppliers that differ significantly in their models of behavior in the public procurement market.