In recent years, both in Russia and in the world, there has been an annual increase in the number of museum visitors. The most popular exhibitions are visited by millions of people. In 2020, in the context of quarantine measures caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, the issue of managing the museum's visitors’ flows has become especially acute. If earlier the throughput of museums was limited by the maximum duration of a possible evacuation from the museums building, exhibitions space and the number of employees, who are working with the visitors, then in 2020, due to the observance of sanitary and epidemiological rules, the throughput of museums was further reduced. This determines the relevance of analytical solutions for museums since in order to manage visitor flows and adapt services to high demand, it is necessary to have an effective forecasting model that takes into account the determinism of demand by a number of factors.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a forecasting model for the number of excursion groups in specification museum-day-hour. A modification of random forest with the inclusion of more than 450 independent variables in the model is proposed as a forecasting method. The modification of the model consists in changing the mechanism for combining forecasts of trees in the forest in such a way that the weight of the tree in the model is inversely proportional to the measurement error of this tree. The proposed model is tested on the basis of data on more than 20,000 excursion groups of the State Russian Museum for the period 2018-2020. The proposed model showed high accuracy (36.6% WAPE and 0.5% BIAS).
The content of the concept of ensuring transparency of the supply chain, which currently attracts the attention of middle and senior managers in a wide range of companies and industries, is disclosed. The analysis of the reasons for the increased interest in the issues of transparency in supply chains, in particular: pressure from the government, consumers, non-governmental organizations, etc. on the management of focus companies, so that they open more information about their supply chains. It has been shown that the reputational costs associated with not meeting these requirements can be very high. It has been shown that the reputational costs associated with not meeting these requirements can be very high. The article explains the meaning of supply chain transparency and provides guidelines and methodology for mapping and expanding progress in understanding SC-Transparency. The analysis is based on overseas DRM experience shared by dozens of companies in all industries of all sizes over the past decade with consistent advances in DRM. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the experience of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - an initiative founded at the MIT Transport and Logistics Center; research by Sourcemap, a provider of supply chain transparency solutions; and research in this area by leading experts and analysts.
The article analyzes practical aspects of master planning process organization with the usage of linear programming methods at one of the largest Russian metallurgical companies.
Planning process analysis before improvements is provided. Its key disadvantages are defined which are simplification of model, absence of scalability, and absence of optimization capabilities. The conclusion is done about necessity of formalization of planning process, development of economic-mathematical model of company’s supply chain in specialized tool with optimization capabilities.
It is highlighted that the new master planning process was based on own company’s experience and elements of Supply Chain Management concept from Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF). Particularly elements and principles of the demand management process of GSCF were used.
The key stages of planning system implementation were analyzed. Qualitative and comprehensive items design is highlighted as very important and resource consuming task.
The technologies for master planning are defined and reasons for their usage are proved. It is highlighted that integrated approach to tactical planning with the usage of linear programming methods allows a company to form comprehensive understanding of key factors which influence the final result, find out potential appearance of undesired situations and define best alternatives in company’s business.
In conclusion the description of achieved results at the metallurgical company is provided, also economic reasons for improvement implementation is defined.
The article considers the logistics chain, consisting of a supplier and customers, as are chosen distributor and a few dealers. The goal is based on probability theory to describe the nature of the effectiveness for introduction of VMI-technology and to analyze the dependence of the efficiency from the structure of the chain.
For mining enterprises, the need for spare parts and consumables used in the repair and operation of equipment depends on a number of factors, and the degree of influence of each of them is not unambiguous and has a more probabilistic (stochastic) nature. Therefore, the recommendations of the equipment manufacturers, which are present in the technical documentation, are more general (universal) in nature. In circumstances where it is not possible to unambiguously determine the actual need for operating resources, mining companies are forced to form additional insurance stocks necessary to ensure an uninterrupted production process and maintain productivity at a given level. To reduce the negative impact of uncertainty of the environment, it is advisable to build relationships with suppliers based on VMI technology. The calculations were made taking into account the total costs associated with the organization of orders and supplies from suppliers and consumers. The proposed solutions were based on using the model of the optimal order size in the supply chain, taking into account losses, both from immobilization of financial resources diverted to inventories, and from downtime of technological equipment. The article proposed a list of items of expenses that should be taken into account when calculating the total costs associated with purchases and stocks of operating resources of mining companies. As a result of calculations in the article, it is shown that with the development of VMI relations between mining companies and their suppliers, it is possible to achieve a mutual cost reduction, while reducing inventory levels, by increasing transparency and certainty when planning the demand.
The major market for crude oil produced in the Caspian region and petroleum products produced at the southern refineries of Russia and CIS countries is the market of the countries of the south of Europe. The transport infrastructure of the countries of the south of Europe for delivery of oil products to consumers is designed for sea supply. In this work, special attention is paid to the condition and development of port terminals and transport systems connecting port tank farms with consumers of oil products. The main capacity of the oil industry in the south of Europe is concentrated in the most developed countries. The method of quantitative analysis is used to study the possibilities of transport infrastructure and the production of petroleum products in the region under study. With the help of this method it is possible to establish the correspondence of the possibilities of the transport infrastructure with the expected and existing freight flows. An analysis of the capabilities of oil refineries that consume crude oil in this region is given. The possibilities of enterprises providing reserve capacities of oil energy resources are considered. Based on the data for the last decade on oil consumption and refining in the countries of the region, the tendencies of development of supply chains for the oil industry in the south of Europe are being investigated. The main regions of crude oil consumption are outlined, the prospects for the development of oil production in the countries of southeast Europe are shown. The presented analysis makes it possible to identify the most significant areas of southern Europe for the implementation of oil supply chains in the region, to build the most efficient cargo flows for shippers.
Authors demonstrate that arising disbalance of supply and demand generates the set of problems for the business organisation, such as high order periods, loss of clients in case of shortage, high total costs, and low efficiency of industrial lines. Eventually, all this factors essentially influence on achievement of company’s strategic goals and undermine corporate market image. Because of developing of integration and cooperation in supply chains, increasing attention in business organisations is given to technology «joint planning of sales and operations/production» (Sales and Operations Planning – S&OP). Article’s purpose is to analyse, how implementing of S&OP technology will affect on solving of mentioned problems (on the example of «Huhtamaki C.I.S.» company). The meaning of planning of sales and operations is made out as a cycle of meetings (stages) repeating in the same sequence every month and subordinating a making decision process.
Changing market conditions led to a significant transformation of the supply chain management system of leading metal companies. The paper contains the results of the study conducted by the author on the systematization and formalization of specialized approaches to managing supply chains of leading metal companies and their relationships, comparing these processes with the standard supply chain management models SCOR + CCOR + DCOR and GSCF. The analysis formalized the main directions of development of the methodology of supply chain planning in terms of adapting to the specific of metals including: the reorganization of relations of existing planning processes in accordance with best practices in the industry planning; consolidation of models CCOR, SCOR and DCOR in a single system of supply chain planning processes; refinement steps of the planning process, and the introduction of additional, if necessary; formalization of methods and planning models; definition of requirements for information technology support. It was noted that the requirements for systematization and development of the planning methodology are defined by the needs of its application to ensure the competitiveness of Russian metal companies in a tough fight in the global market.
Within the framework of the digital economy development in Russia, one of important areas is «digital logistics/ supply chain». In the market of freight and passenger traffic the use of digital technologies gives a competitive advantage, therefore their implementation is becoming inevitable for the entire logistics industry. This article considers trends, advantages, prospects and barriers to the implementation of digital technologies in the Russian Federation; the main types of these technologies and their influence on logistics business processes efficiency. A scheme for digital technologies (Big Data, IoT (Internet of Things), Blockchain, Cloud Services, 3D Printing) using in the supply chain are also presented. This paper provides the analysis of digital technologies use impact and a methodology for assessing the relationship with the components of the model of total logistics costs (TLC) in supply chains. It should be noted that proposed TLC model does not only include logistics operations costs, but also the costs associated with complete customer satisfaction.The use of digital technologies in logistics makes it possible to increase efficiency,precision and speed of logistics operations, however it requires significant financial investments, personnel training, accounting long-term physical movement over long distances, problems of customs clearance and terminal handling of goods.
The article deals with some aspects of systematization and classification of various inventory management models with an account for stock-out. The model with «loss of requisition» most rarely encountered in the theory of inventory management, but indisputably relevant because of its practical value, is discussed. The urgency of the stock-out problem in the modern world economy is accounted for by the information given in the article about the losses caused by the stockout. Applying analytical approach when solving the stock-out problem can serve as a tool that will help solve long-standing problems of stock-out costs reduction. In this paper the calculation examples for key variants of stock-out models are given, and, the model with «lost demand» and its connection with a static problem is of particular interest. Calculation results comparison revealed the fundamental difference in models, which allowed to avoid mixing models that is often encountered in the literature. The result obtained during the research is the expansion of the approach to classification, and consequently, the opportunity to attract additional tools of the stock management theory to solve the stock-out problem, which ultimately aims at optimizing total logistics costs.
The analysis of scientific works devoted to the formation of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) of transport services shows that the long-term path includes the consolidation of a number of basic (key) indicators, the definition of auxiliary indicators, as well as the definition of the company's place among competitors. It is possible to form the appropriate set of models for the calculation of following basic indicators. Productivity (for example, hourly productivity); time parameters (transport time, time for paperwork, time for loading and unloading, etc.); transportation costs (cost of transportation, loading and unloading, storage costs, return flow, etc.); reliability (probability of failure, sustainability of the process and time parameters). We are proposing the original two-level structure of a transport company performance indicators and the model for calculating KPI for assessment of various transport types, that can be used as a basis for development of software contributing to digitalization of transport services.