All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence on the world energy market and economy overall. The decline in employment and personal consumption has struck more on most vulnerable social classes but the decreased volume of demand can be also attributed to the wealth (catering, tourism and others). Once began, the recession develops by its own rules — a sharp fall in the world trade, fixed capital formation, growth of budget deficits, and particularly strong impact on developing countries most dependent on tourism and financial assistance.
Keywords: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, business cycle, social inequality, personal consumption, capital formation, finance.
JEL: A14, D11, F02, T32.
Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2006—2014, the paper investigates reservation wages setting in the Russian labor market. The sample includes non-employed individuals wishing to get a job (both searchers and non-searchers). The first part of the paper provides a survey of previous empirical studies, describes data and analyzes subjective estimates of reservation wages in comparison with various objective indicators of actual wages. The analysis shows that wage aspirations of the majority of Russian non-employed individuals are overstated. However their wage expectations are rather flexible and decrease rapidly as the search continues that prevents high long-term unemployment. The second part of the paper provides an econometric analysis of main determinants of reservation wage and its impact on probability of re-employment and wages on searchers’ new jobs.
Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2006—2014, the paper investigates reservation wages setting in the Russian labor market. The second part of the paper provides an econometric analysis of main determinants of reservation wages. It shows that personal characteristics, household income, unemployment duration and characteristics of local labor markets are important factors that affect reservation wage setting. The findings also indicate that non-employed individuals with higher reservation wages have higher probability of re-employment and receive higher wages on their new jobs. A general conclusion is that Russian workers set reservation wages in economically rational way taking into account their real prospects in the labor market.
The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of “coronacrisis”, and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.
The paper presents an approach to quantitative estimation of socio-economic benefits from oil extraction (in the US). The approach explicitly distinguishes the contribution of non-institutional and institutional factors. Calculations show that in the United States the influence and dynamics of institutional factors are related to steady deterioration of natural conditions of oil extraction. In general, the US resource regime can be called stimulating, as is evidenced by a small proportion of adverse effects due to preservation of residual oil.