The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were specially calculated by the author) one can conclude that in Russia the dynamics of industrial production are dependent not so much on demand but rather on supply of products. This is explained through weak diversification of Russian economy as well as its high monopolization and exceptional role of imports in consumer and investment expenditures.
Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in the book «The Black Swan» N.N. Taleb concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance. We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather often (regular regime) and the other one - rather rare. Our answer is that if regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability a bit higher than 1/2, this allows to get positive average gain. We believe that this very phenomenon lies in the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.
ФИНАНСОВЫЕ КРИЗИСЫ, биржа, пуассоновский процесс, financial crises, Stock exchange, Poisson processes
This study is a continuation of Oshchepkov (2010), where it was shown that the rates of return to higher education, obtained by estimating mincer-type wage equations, vary significantly across regions-subjects of the Russian Federation. We try to explain the revealed differences. To this end, we investigate the connection between estimates of the rates of return and different regional characteristics. Our results show that the return to higher education is higher in less attractive regions. It is also positively associated with the rate of unemployment and public sector employment. We did not find significant correlation of the return to higher education with the «stock» of workers with higher education as well as with the level of regional economic development.
The article covers applied research results of advertising influence on key business indicators estimation through econometrics methods considering Russian data specific. Detailed analysis of advertising efficiency concept is provided; modern principles of advertising exposure planning, which perceive advertising expenditures as an investment aiming on business indicators development are widely discussed. Key steps of the methodology are described on case of real telecommunication company operating in Russia. Information sources and the most employed types of surveys on Russian and international markets are overviewed. The results of introduced approach provide not only insights regarding post-campaigns efficiency evaluation, but also form the basis and leanings for further strategic and tactical communication efforts planning.
This article offers a new approach to growth accounting in Russia, identifying fundamental and cyclical components, including capacity utilisation and the employment level. A detailed decomposition of the labour contribution to growth is conducted to identify demographic effects. A modified index of human capital is developed that considers the impact on GDP of educational attainment (based on PISA scores) and changes in health (the fall in mortality among those of working age). This is used to refine the historical trend in total factor productivity. The article provides the results of a decomposition of the historical GDP trend in Russia in 2000-16, and of two long-term forecasts of economic growth, along with the contribution of the individual components. It is shown that under the inertia scenario the labour contribution to growth will be negative across the whole period to 2035. Given established trends in investment and total factor productivity, and moderate oil prices, the long-term growth rate in Russia will remain close to 1% a year. These negative demographic effects cannot be fully offset through a reform of the pension system. At the same time, it is shown that a rapid convergence with the level of human capital in developed countries would allow for a significant acceleration in the rate of economic growth.