This paper proposes an axiomatic solution to the problem of choice of the dynamic construction of prices and quantities indices and trajectories. There has been proved the existence of prices and quantities paths which are identical to those generating Divisia and Montgomery indices. The obtained Divisia - Montgomery indices (also known as log-change or Montgomery - Vartia(I) index numbers) possess the axiomatic properties of both Montgomery and Divisia indices and are recommended for practical application. They are uniquely characterized by a constant on the trajectories and equal shares of each factor's contribution to value change and to logarithm of the index value for a given set of goods. This indices' property corresponds to the statistical practice's assumption of homogeneity of the studied process of combined changes in prices and quantities in the neighboring periods. The proposed approach could be extended to the calculation of chain indices for the sequences of the compared states-periods.
This article deals with the influence of different factors on the RTSI in the period from March 2007 to August 2009. The period is further subdivided into three subperiods − pre-crisis, high oil prices and time of crisis ones. The stationarity testing, the Granger causality analysis, the analysis of cointegration, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition let us get the information on the degree of oil price impact, the S&P-500 and FTSE-100 stock indices one and the «investors' fear gauge» index VIX influence on the RTSI. The time series cointegration analysis demonstrates the presence of the cointegration relations. The results of the research can be applied in making scenario forecasts based on the middle-run and long-run oil prices.
The ageing of the population and the imbalance of public finances force governments to carry out pension reforms in order to insure the sustainability of pension systems. The reforming of social security systems is becoming even more urgent as the government ability to cover the deficit of pension funds with transfers from federal budgets is limited. The paper presents the modification of overlapping generations model developed by [Heijdra, Bettendorf, 2006]. The model was extended to account for the unbalanced pension system and endogenous interest rate, important in estimation of pension expenses. We consider an optimal combination of fiscal instruments depending on the retirement age, life expectancy and productivity of labour and compare social welfare in the case of balanced and unbalanced pension system. The welfare analysis shows that financing the pension fund deficit via income taxes is a part of optimal policy. It was also shown that when the deficit of the pension fund is covered by the government, income tax and social contributions are perfect substitutes when the interior solution is considered. Thus in case of balanced pension system optimal social contributions are positive and are used to finance pensions, while optimal income tax rate does not depend on the rate of population growth. In the case of unbalanced pension system, the maximization of welfare function points in favour of corner solution with zero social contributions and positive income tax, which depends on population growth, retirement age and labour productivity. While an unbalanced pension system with optimally chosen fiscal instruments allows to achieve higher social welfare due to higher level of capital per efficiency unit of labor and lower equilibrium level of public debt.
The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were specially calculated by the author) one can conclude that in Russia the dynamics of industrial production are dependent not so much on demand but rather on supply of products. This is explained through weak diversification of Russian economy as well as its high monopolization and exceptional role of imports in consumer and investment expenditures.
Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in the book «The Black Swan» N.N. Taleb concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance. We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather often (regular regime) and the other one - rather rare. Our answer is that if regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability a bit higher than 1/2, this allows to get positive average gain. We believe that this very phenomenon lies in the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.
ФИНАНСОВЫЕ КРИЗИСЫ, биржа, пуассоновский процесс, financial crises, Stock exchange, Poisson processes
This study is a continuation of Oshchepkov (2010), where it was shown that the rates of return to higher education, obtained by estimating mincer-type wage equations, vary significantly across regions-subjects of the Russian Federation. We try to explain the revealed differences. To this end, we investigate the connection between estimates of the rates of return and different regional characteristics. Our results show that the return to higher education is higher in less attractive regions. It is also positively associated with the rate of unemployment and public sector employment. We did not find significant correlation of the return to higher education with the «stock» of workers with higher education as well as with the level of regional economic development.
The article covers applied research results of advertising influence on key business indicators estimation through econometrics methods considering Russian data specific. Detailed analysis of advertising efficiency concept is provided; modern principles of advertising exposure planning, which perceive advertising expenditures as an investment aiming on business indicators development are widely discussed. Key steps of the methodology are described on case of real telecommunication company operating in Russia. Information sources and the most employed types of surveys on Russian and international markets are overviewed. The results of introduced approach provide not only insights regarding post-campaigns efficiency evaluation, but also form the basis and leanings for further strategic and tactical communication efforts planning.