In this paper, we apply textual analysis to the hedonic pricing model in the residential real estate market of Moscow. We collect data on 60 thousand sale ads in July 2019 on the CIAN web- site (one of the largest web-sites on residential real estate market in Russia). A special parser program was written in Python to gather the data. The text analyzing algorithm developed by authors chooses words (unigrams) and phrases (bigrams) that are the most significant predic- tors of price. The advantage of this approach is that the selection of explanatory variables for the econometric model is based on the revealed preferences of market participants – the algo- rithm determines tokens indicated by apartment owners interested in a successful sale. Thus, we identify important subjective pricing factors in the Moscow real estate market. It is shown that the use of text analysis can significantly improve the predictable power of the pricing model. In particular, inclusion of unigrams reduces the standard error of estimation by 15%. The mechanism of this improvement is the inclusion of pricing factors that are difficult to quantify. For example, «water purification», «concierge guard», «club house», «video surveillance system» and similar bigrams reflect the safety, location type and other local public goods that are difficult to measure.
The article analyzes the current natural gas pricing system in Russia and suggests directions for its transformation, taking into account the situation in the economy and the energy sector. The methodology is based on the methods of system analysis using economic and mathematical optimization modeling of the energy sector and the economy. The authors show that the current gas pricing system in the country limits the development of competition, does not allow to increase the efficiency of economic sectors and to modernize the energy sector. Mechanisms of gas exchange trading, which were created in the country, do not reflect the state of the market. Under these conditions, it is necessary to implement a set of measures that will allow creating a transparent pricing system based on market principles and reflecting the real situation in the consuming sectors. The gas industry can become a tool to stimulate economic development. The increase in gas prices would allow to create conditions for modernization, leading to GDP growth due to the expansion of orders for the Russian industry from the energy and consuming sectors. At the same time, increased efficiency helps to contain the growth of consumer spending, while increased tax revenues from the gas industry would make it possible to avoid the growth of other taxes on consumers, which could be inevitable due to the expected decline in revenues from the oil industry. In parallel, objective conditions would be created for the development of inter-fuel competition, and the gas industry itself will become a more at-tractive segment for investment.
The research is devoted to the investigation into dynamics of countries’ participation in consumer electronics global value chains caused by operations of its leading manufacturers. Sector that is under study ranks among the most important high-tech industries of the world economy, which generates considerable volume of added value created by producers and suppliers from different countries of origin. This fact lets identify the most important trends of value added redistribution on the global level. The hypothesis states that in spite of outsourcing of standardized operations to developing countries and emergence of leading Asian producers, the distribution of value added within the global consumer electronics sector is biased towards industrialized countries. In the research we study the models of global value chain formation implemented by companies from different countries, we analyze statistics presented by the OECD and the WTO that reflects the movement of value added across borders on the countries’ level, investigate present trends influencing the sector in order to uncover perspective directions of value added distribution between countries. As a result, the suggested hypothesis is confirmed. There was found a concentration of knowledge base accounting for the highest value added in the group of industrialized countries. At the same time, the share of value added originating from developing countries has remained almost unchanged. The findings of the research could be applied both by the authorities to develop effective industrial policies, as well as by separate companies seeking for new competitive advantages.
This paper proposes an axiomatic solution to the problem of choice of the dynamic construction of prices and quantities indices and trajectories. There has been proved the existence of prices and quantities paths which are identical to those generating Divisia and Montgomery indices. The obtained Divisia - Montgomery indices (also known as log-change or Montgomery - Vartia(I) index numbers) possess the axiomatic properties of both Montgomery and Divisia indices and are recommended for practical application. They are uniquely characterized by a constant on the trajectories and equal shares of each factor's contribution to value change and to logarithm of the index value for a given set of goods. This indices' property corresponds to the statistical practice's assumption of homogeneity of the studied process of combined changes in prices and quantities in the neighboring periods. The proposed approach could be extended to the calculation of chain indices for the sequences of the compared states-periods.
This article deals with the influence of different factors on the RTSI in the period from March 2007 to August 2009. The period is further subdivided into three subperiods − pre-crisis, high oil prices and time of crisis ones. The stationarity testing, the Granger causality analysis, the analysis of cointegration, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition let us get the information on the degree of oil price impact, the S&P-500 and FTSE-100 stock indices one and the «investors' fear gauge» index VIX influence on the RTSI. The time series cointegration analysis demonstrates the presence of the cointegration relations. The results of the research can be applied in making scenario forecasts based on the middle-run and long-run oil prices.
The ageing of the population and the imbalance of public finances force governments to carry out pension reforms in order to insure the sustainability of pension systems. The reforming of social security systems is becoming even more urgent as the government ability to cover the deficit of pension funds with transfers from federal budgets is limited. The paper presents the modification of overlapping generations model developed by [Heijdra, Bettendorf, 2006]. The model was extended to account for the unbalanced pension system and endogenous interest rate, important in estimation of pension expenses. We consider an optimal combination of fiscal instruments depending on the retirement age, life expectancy and productivity of labour and compare social welfare in the case of balanced and unbalanced pension system. The welfare analysis shows that financing the pension fund deficit via income taxes is a part of optimal policy. It was also shown that when the deficit of the pension fund is covered by the government, income tax and social contributions are perfect substitutes when the interior solution is considered. Thus in case of balanced pension system optimal social contributions are positive and are used to finance pensions, while optimal income tax rate does not depend on the rate of population growth. In the case of unbalanced pension system, the maximization of welfare function points in favour of corner solution with zero social contributions and positive income tax, which depends on population growth, retirement age and labour productivity. While an unbalanced pension system with optimally chosen fiscal instruments allows to achieve higher social welfare due to higher level of capital per efficiency unit of labor and lower equilibrium level of public debt.
The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were specially calculated by the author) one can conclude that in Russia the dynamics of industrial production are dependent not so much on demand but rather on supply of products. This is explained through weak diversification of Russian economy as well as its high monopolization and exceptional role of imports in consumer and investment expenditures.