International experience demonstrates that successful development of national economy is inseparably linked with the use of innovation potential of small business – the most dynamical and flexible sector of economic activity. However, in order to use the maximum extent possible and, consequently, increase the economic return it is necessary to have a profound array of realistic and operational information that includes numerous aspects and entrepreneurial behavior’s motivation. Within a post-crisis business environment its role in socioeconomic development of the country has significantly increased and pointed out the necessity and relevance of researches that study and analyze business climate. Available Russian statistical data collection reflecting the condition of small business primarily from a quantitative point of view is insufficient not only because of its coverage but also because of estimation methods, which reduces the possibilities of analysis of current changes. Unfortunately, modern studying and analyzing methods of considered subjects show an obvious informational gap in researches that are based on the regular environment surveys. Application of this tool is especially significant for the economy in the circumstances because of the limited opportunities to complete economic information by means of existing quantitative statistical practices. This paper presents a complex analysis of business climate in the manufacturing industries in 2013. The research is based on sample business environment surveys of more than 2.5 thousand small businesses in the field of industry (sections C, D, and E of the Russian Classification of Economic Activities) conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service for 2008-2013.
Using RLMS-HSE data set we analyze labor flows in the Russian labor market for 2000-2012. We document the high mobility rate and the transitive role played by non-participation. Division of all employed into three large groups (budgetary workers, workers in the corporate market sector, and employed in the non-corporate or informal sector) suggests that budgetary workers are low mobile compared to others, and informal workers and economically inactive individuals have higher probabilities to become unemployed than those who work formally. The paper exploits a few methodological approaches. First, we build transition matrices allowing estimate transition probabilities. Second, the Shorrocks indexes estimate intensity of mobility. Third, the dynamic multinomial logit model explores individual determinants of inter-status transitions and structural dependence from the previous labor market states. Fourth, we decompose the change in unemployment rate as the combination of incoming and outcoming flows. This procedure suggests that the decline in unemployment is explained by decrease in incoming flows while the outflows remain largely stable. Observed intensity and direction of flows fit the institutional configuration of the Russian labor market model.
This study presents new estimates for returns to tenure for the Russian labour market. It exploits the RLMS-HSE panel data set that covers the period 1994–2014 and it differs from previous studies in a few important aspects. First, we try to account for the specifics of the transition period dividing the total observed tenure into two parts, where one part is the old one acquired before 1992 and the other part is newly accumulated since 1992. Second, we estimate the returns to tenure for employees in the private and the state sectors separately.Third, we apply alternative instrumentation techniques suggested by Altonji-Shakotko and by Topel and are the first who do this for the Russian labour market. Our cross-section OLS estimates show that the return to tenure in the state sector has always been positive but in the private sector it has been positive since the mid – 2000s. In the private sector, the return to tenure is lower and the wage growth over the tenure stops earlier than in the state one. On average, the cumulative premium for 15 to 20 years of firm-specific experience makes about 20–25%, according to the OLS estimates. However, it disappears completely or even turns negative if endogeneity is addressed with use of the instruments. Our analysis suggests that existing knowledge of how tenure is valued in the Russian labour market needs to be revised.
The article is devoted to classical tracking data analysis conducted to obtain the role of consumer experience, advertising awareness of the brand and competitors', reputation and others in potential demand driving. One of the key research' outcomes is approach verification, which allows obtaining hierarchy effects chains for particular brand considering tracking data specific. The article includes tracking studies methodology detailed explanation and shows its role in marketing planning process. Applied brand health analysis methods rooted in hierarchy effects theory are discussed. Special focus is made on actionable recommendations providing, targeted to advertising efficiency increase.
In recent years, the role of stock markets as the source of capital to fund increased significantly. Using investment portfolio enables companies to achieve maximum efficiency in the stock market, thereby reducing the risk of their operations and increase their profitability. The article deals with the effective management of the investment portfolio , including various types of assets . Through an integrated approach, combining the selection of assets with the help of fuzzy clustering, the Markowitz classical model and rebalancing, this problem was reduced to the problem of maximizing the Sharpe ratio at a given level of risk . The main result of research is mathematical model, which provides a significant increase of effectiveness of portfolio management compared to conventional approaches. This paper proposes a modified algorithm for rebalancing over time, which allows to combine all the advantages of active management with a reduction in transaction costs. The choice of control method was carried out taking into account the investment horizon.
A comprehensive model for evaluating the effectiveness of management of the investment portfolio, having as target the function of profit maximization, and as constraints - the level of risk, and the constancy of the weighting factors increase the Sharpe ratio.
The most promising is the creation on the basis of algorithms developed special software that can be used by both private investors and managers of investment funds.
Freshwater challenge has become an integral part of international political agenda since the last decade of the XX century. Huge amount of people who suffer from different types of water stress (over 1,1 bln.) brought global community to include Improved access to water and sanitation as one of 4 major components of Sustainable environment Millennium Development Goal (MDGs) of United Nations. On July 28, 2010, UN General Assembly added a right for water in the list of basic human rights. Evolution of life standards in developed countries, rising concerns of poverty and inequality lead to rethinking of a wide range of global challenges, which were mostly ignored by world community before. Aggravation of water access problem, regional contradictions over water allocation and rising demand for higher life standards reflect both continuous escalation of water stress and higher ethics of global civil society towards lifestyle and inequality problems.
Before early 2000s, economic experts did not pay enough attention to water issues besides national water facilities, irrigation, hydro energy and urbanization problems. Beyond national frontiers water discourse resolved to draughts and deserts monitoring. All attention was concentrated on local measures aimed to prevent floods and droughts or manage sophisticated problems of allocation of scarce water resource in transboundary basins. As it seems today, water deficit has become a structural factor influencing world economic development. Access to clean water is in the focus of Sustainable development policy, water deficit becomes a constraint for economic growth in both developed and developing countries. At the same time world expenses for R&D in water management, investments in droughts and flood security are steadily growing. Energy efficiency in cities and especially megacities arises more heavily, state programs on modernization of irrigation systems multiply each year and arid regions in Asia, Europe and North America invest more and more in new desalination plants.
The primary aim of this research is to compare diverse statistical models to predict critical financial state for Russian private small and medium-sized companies belonging to different sectors of economy.
We use the following methods: Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, Mixture Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Probit Regression, Tree and Random Forest. Our dataset consists of approximately 1,000,000 observations from the Ruslana database and covers the period from 2011 to 2012.
Instead of standard definition of default we use the notion of critical financial state which means that we add companies liquidated as a result of legal bankruptcy to those liquidated voluntary.
We study four industries in detail: construction, manufacturing, real estate activities, retail and wholesale trade. Comparing industries, we come up to several compelling conclusions. On the one hand, the difference between sectors is so significant that it cannot be overcome by including several dummy variables but by estimating separate models for each industry.
On the other hand, sectors are similar in several ways. Firstly, importance ranking of regressors is stable among sectors that are analysed. This results in unique optimal set of variables chosen out of six possible alternatives. To add, inclusion of non-financial characteristics improves predictive power greatly. While age of a company and federal region are the key non-financial variables, size of a company is less important, and legal form is the weakest predictor. Secondly, Random Forest outperformed other statistical approaches on all data sets. For this method area under ROC-curve (the applied comparison criterion) reaches up to ¾ which is the same for all industries.
This research will be of vital importance especially to banks and other credit organisations providing loans to small and medium businesses as well as to state regulators.
In this article we present the ideas proposed/addresses during the initial de-velopment of interindustry interaction model, which due to various reasons were not implemented in empirical research of the USSR economy. We analyze current stud-ies and the underlying data, which provide an opportunity for continuation of re-search of interindustry interaction model, particularly in the direction entailed by the heterogeneous output assumption. We admit that the amount of inputs of an industry is related to the structure of its outputs market and propose the estimation method for the «core» product flows of the model. Our approach is illustrated with the help of experimental 25- industry input- output tables (1980-2004) in basic prices (2000) data provided by Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS.
This paper studies how heterogeneous individuals, that differ by entrepreneurial skills and productivity as a worker, endogenously choose their occupation (workers vs. entrepreneurs) based on expected income comparison (wages vs. profits). Each entrepreneur runs a firm that produces a single variety of a horizontally differentiated good under monopolistic competition. We show that the cutoff for occupational selection between workers and entrepreneurs is a negatively sloped curve in the space of individual characteristics. The form of this cutoff curve does not depend on the distribution of individual characteristics, but is affected by the elasticity of substitution between varieties. Changes in the distribution of individual characteristics can shift the cutoff curve. Thus individual employment choices depend not only on the distribution of characteristics, but also on the degree of competition in the market. We show that when the distributions of entrepreneurial skills and worker productivity are independent and follow power laws, an increase in the average worker’s ability decreases the share of entrepreneurs, whereas changes in the average entrepreneur’s skills do not affect this share. Estimates based on Current Population Survey (CPS) data are in line with the theoretical shape of the cutoff curve, and our estimates of the elasticity of substitution are close to those usually found in the literature.
The Labour Market Reform in Germany: a Special Case or an Example to Follow? In this article we study the institutional reform of the German labour market during the period 2003-2005, the so-called Hartz reforms. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, we describe the economic and institutional context of the German labour market before the Hartz reforms in light of general trends in market economies. The falling competitiveness of the German economy, the need to increase the flexibility and dynamics of the labor market have made the ruling elite to proceed with institutional transformations. Second, we analyze the theoretical concepts that became the basis for the labour market reform and examine the changes in the main labour market institutions. Finally, we evaluate the outcomes of the institutional reforms for economic activity, employment, unemployment and labour costs. Of major interest is the question about the impact of the Hartz reforms on internal flexibility. In this work we rely on the institutional analysis. Results of the study contribute to the understanding of the mechanism of labour market transformations. At the same time its main conclusions can be used for improving the economic and social policy in the Russian Federation. We came to the following conclusions. We have found the positive impact of the changes in labour market institutions on labour market outcomes: especially on the dynamics of economic activity and employment. The Hartz reforms fundamentally modified the functioning of the German labor market and increased both flexibility and job creation capacities. However, the pattern of German de-regulatory reforms accesses mostly the margins of the labour market, i.e. ‘outsiders’, that contribute to a growing dualisation of the employment system. This dualisation trend was reinforced by dynamics in industrial relations and company employment practices where we can observe growing reliance on mechanisms of internal flexibility for the skilled core work force and increasing use of non-standard types of employment in less specifically skilled occupations.