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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 583
by name
by year
Peter Meylakhs, Friedman S. R., Sandoval M. et al. Substance Use and Misuse. 2011. Vol. 46. No. 2/3. P. 307-315.

A positive-deviance control–case life history study of injection drug users (IDUs) in New York City who had injected drugs for 8–15 years compared 21 IDUs who were antibody negative for both HIV and hepatitis C with 3 infected with both viruses and 11 infected with hepatitis C virus but not HIV. Eligible subjects were referred from other research studies and from community organizations that conduct testing for HIV and hepatitis C virus. Data were collected during 2005–2008 and were analyzed using life history and grounded theory approaches. They support grounded hypotheses that IDUs who are able to attain symbiotic goals like avoiding withdrawal and maintaining social support are assisted thereby in remaining uninfected with HIV or hepatitis C. These hypotheses should be tested using cohort studies and prevention trials to see if helping IDUs attain symbiotic goals reduces infection risk. The study’s limitations are noted.

Added: Mar 8, 2013
Lavrenov S., Luzikov Y., Bykov E. et al. Bioorganic and Medicinal Chemistry. 2010. Vol. 18. No. 18. P. 6905-6913.

Novel derivatives of tris(indol-3-yl)methane and tris(indol-3-yl)methylium salts with the alkyl substituents at the N-atoms of the indole rings were synthesized. An easy substitution of indole rings in trisindolylmethanes for other indoles under the action of acids is demonstrated, and the mechanism of substitution is discussed. To obtain trisindolylmethylium salts, the environmentally safe method of oxidation of trisindolylmethanes with air oxygen in acidic conditions was developed. Tris(1-alkylindol-3-yl)methanes and tris(1-alkylindol-3-yl)methylium salts represent three-bladed molecular propellers whose physico-chemical and biological properties strongly depend on the N-alkyl substituent. The cytotoxicity of novel compounds increased with the number of C atoms in the alkyl chains, with optimal number n = 3-5 whereas the derivatives with longer side chains were less cytotoxic. The most potent novel compounds killed human tumor cells at nanomolar-to-submicromolar concentrations, being one order of magnitude more potent than the prototype antibiotic turbomycin A [tris(indol-3-yl)methylium salt]. Apoptosis in HCT116 colon carcinoma cell line induced by tris(1-pentyl-1H-indol-3-yl)methylium methanesulfonate was detectable at concentrations tolerable by normal blood lymphocytes. Thus, N-alkyl substituted tris(1-alkylindol-3-yl)methylium salts emerge as perspective anticancer drug candidates. 

Added: Jul 14, 2015
Shchekotikhin A., Glazunova V.A., Dezhenkova L. et al. Bioorganic and Medicinal Chemistry. 2009. Vol. 17. No. 5. P. 1861-1869.

We developed the synthesis of a series of thiophene-fused tetracyclic analogues of the antitumor drug ametantrone. The reactions included nucleophilic substitution of methoxy groups in 4,11-dimethoxyanthra[2,3-b]thiophene-5,10-diones with ethylenediamines, producing the derivatives of 4,11-diaminoanthra[2,3-b]thiophene-5,10-dione in good yields. Several compounds showed marked antiproliferative potency against doxorubicin-selected, P-glycoprotein-expressing tumor cells and p53-/- cells. The cytotoxicity of some novel compounds for P-glycoprotein-positive cells is highly dependent on N-substituent at the terminal amino group of ethylenediamine moiety. The cytotoxic potency of selected compounds correlated with their ability to attenuate the functions of topoisomerase I and telomerase, strongly suggesting that these enzymes are the major targets of antitumor activity of anthra[2,3-b]thiophene-5,10-dione derivatives.

Added: Jul 14, 2015
Shchekotikhin A., Glazunova V.A., Dezhenkova L. et al. European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry. 2014. Vol. 86. P. 797-805.

A series of new 3-aminomethyl-411-dihydroxynaphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-diones 6-13 bearing the cyclic diamine in the position 3 of the indole ring was synthesized. The majority of new compounds demonstrated a superior cytotoxicity than doxorubicin against a panel of mammalian tumor cells with determinants of altered drug response, that is, Pgp expression or p53 inactivation. For naphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-diones 6-9 bearing 3-aminopyrrolidine in the side chains, the ability to bind double-stranded DNA and inhibit topoisomerases 1 and 2 mediated relaxation of supercoiled DNA were demonstrated. Only one isomer, (R)-4,11-dihydroxy-3-((pyrrolidin-3-ylamino)methyl)-1H-naphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-dione (7) induced the formation of specific DNA cleavage products similar to the known topoisomerase 1 inhibitors camptothecin and indenoisoquinoline MJ-III-65, suggesting a role of the structure of the side chain of 3-aminomethylnaphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-diones in interaction with the target. Compound 7 demonstrated an antitumor activity in mice with P388 leukemia transplants whereas its enantiomer 6 was inactive. Thus, 3-aminomethyl derivatives of 4,11-dihydroxynaphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-dione emerge as a new prospective chemotype for the search of antitumor agents. © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS.

Added: Jul 14, 2015
Shchekotikhin A., Luzikov Y., Buyanov V. et al. Bioorganic and Medicinal Chemistry. 2006. Vol. 14. No. 15. P. 5241-5251.

We describe the synthesis of derivatives of 4,11-diaminonaphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-dione and their cytotoxicity for human tumor cells that express major determinants of altered anticancer drug response, the efflux pump P-glycoprotein, and non-functional p53. Nucleophilic substitution of methoxy groups in 4,11-dimethoxynaphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-dione with various ethylenediamines yielded the derivatives of 4,11-diaminonaphtho[2,3-f]indole-5,10-dione, the indole containing analogues of the antitumor agent ametantrone. The cytotoxicity of novel compounds for multidrug resistant, P-glycoprotein-expressing tumor cells is highly dependent on the N-substituent at the terminal amino group of the ethylenediamine moiety. Whereas p53 null colon carcinoma cells were less sensitive to the reference drug doxorubicin than their counterparts with wild type p53, the majority of novel naphthoindole derivatives were equally potent for both cell lines, regardless of the p53 status. 

Added: Jul 9, 2015
Sokolov M., Solodova R., V. Galatenko et al. European Journal of Surgical Oncology. 2016. Vol. 42. No. 9. P. S73-S73.

Background: Robotic surgery undergoes its wide acceptance achieved due to minimizing trauma to patients. However, currently robotic surgery lacks a tactile feedback, and it is an essential limiting factor for its further expansion. The problem can be solved by utilization of Medical Tactile Endosurgical complex (MTEC). This complex measures and displays tactile properties of tissues during endoscopic surgeries in real time. It was developed in Lomonosov Moscow State University and officially admitted for clinical use in 2012. Materials and method: MTEC palpation device performs tactile examinations via pressure sensors located in the operating head of the device under a soft membrane. Sensors wirelessly transmit measurement results to a computer in real time. Computer performs processing and output of tactile data to a standard monitor and to specialized tactile display from which data can be read simply via a finger. Processing includes automated analysis of registered tactile data aimed at the identification of heterogeneities which simplifies the identification of lesion boundaries. The utilization of MTEC in endoscopic surgery was tested from January 2015 to December 2015 in hospital No. 31 (Moscow). Nine elective surgeries were performed with da Vinci robotic system (Intuitive Surgical, USA): 2 gastrectomies, 2 stomach resections, 2 resections of pancreas, 2 prostatectomies and 1 right hemicolectomy. Patients’ ages were from 30 to 76. During the surgeries an assistant performed tactile examination under the guidance of surgeon. Operating surgeon identified boundaries of pathological process using a tactile display, and assistant inspected the visualization of tactile data. Results: MTEC was first tested on visually identifiable lesions in stomach and intestine (5 cases). In all cases it correctly localized boundaries of pathological processes. Then the method was applied to pancreas and prostate pathologies and also led to correct decisions in all cases, including a case in which the whole pancreas was involved in process and hence no boundaries were detectable. Conclusion: Utilization of MTEC provides a tactile feedback in robotic surgery thus increasing its capabilities by correct identification of boundaries of a pathological process in the absence of sufficient visual data.

Added: Sep 24, 2016
Vlassov V. Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine. 2015. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 98-102.

Testing Treatments is a book written to help everyone understand why testing treatments is so important, why treatment tests have to be fair, and how everyone can help to promote better research for better health care. The book proved to be very popular and its second edition has already been translated into a dozen languages, with more translations in the pipeline. The texts of the original English and all the translations are feely downloadable from Testing Treatments interactive at www.testingtreatments.org. The editors of all the different language websites have established an TTi Editorial Alliance, to share experiences and provide each other with mutual support. The TTi Editorial Alliance seeks to promote a world in which health professionals, patients and the public use reliable research to inform their health decisions. Its missions are (i) To promote a global network, involving members of the public in partnership with professionals, to communicate and discuss basic principles and general knowledge about testing treatments; (ii) to help the public increase critical thinking and skills in accessing, apprehending, appraising and using research evidence; and (iii) to help patients and the public to participate more actively in health research.

Added: Oct 21, 2016
Iscan Z., Jin T. B., Kendrick A. et al. Human Brain Mapping. 2015. Vol. 36. No. 9. P. 3472-3485.

In the last decade, many studies have used automated processes to analyze magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data such as cortical thickness, which is one indicator of neuronal health. Due to the convenience of image processing software (e.g., FreeSurfer), standard practice is to rely on automated results without performing visual inspection of intermediate processing. In this work, structural MRIs of 40 healthy controls who were scanned twice were used to determine the test–retest reliability of FreeSurfer-derived cortical measures in four groups of subjects—those 25 that passed visual inspection (approved), those 15 that failed visual inspection (disapproved), a combined group, and a subset of 10 subjects (Travel) whose test and retest scans occurred at different sites. Test–retest correlation (TRC), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and percent difference (PD) were used to measure the reliability in the Destrieux and Desikan–Killiany (DK) atlases. In the approved subjects, reliability of cortical thickness/surface area/volume (DK atlas only) were: TRC (0.82/0.88/0.88), ICC (0.81/0.87/0.88), PD (0.86/1.19/1.39), which represent a significant improvement over these measures when disapproved subjects are included. Travel subjects’ results show that cortical thickness reliability is more sensitive to site differences than the cortical surface area and volume. To determine the effect of visual inspection on sample size required for studies of MRI-derived cortical thickness, the number of subjects required to show group differences was calculated. Significant differences observed across imaging sites, between visually approved/disapproved subjects, and across regions with different sizes suggest that these measures should be used with caution.

Added: Jul 13, 2015
Novitskiy N., Ramautar J., Vanderperren K. et al. Neuroimage. 2011. Vol. 54 . P. 824-835.
Simultaneous EEG-fMRI measurements can combine the high spatial resolution of fMRI with the high temporal resolution of EEG. Therefore, we applied this approach to the study of peripheral vision. More specifically, we presented visual field quadrant fragments of checkerboards and a full central checkerboard in a simple detection task. A technique called “integration-by-prediction” was used to integrate EEG and fMRI data. In particular, we used vectors of single-trial ERP amplitude differences between left and right occipital electrodes as regressors in an ERP-informed fMRI analysis. The amplitude differences for the regressors were measured at the latencies of the visual P1 and N1 components. Our results indicated that the traditional eventrelated fMRI analysis revealedmostly activations in the vicinity of the primary visual cortex and in the ventral visual stream, while both P1 and N1 regressors revealed activation of areas in the temporo-parietal junction. We conclude that simultaneous EEG-fMRI in a spatial detection task can separate visual processing at 100– 200 ms from stimulus onset from the rest of the information processing in the brain.
Added: Jul 10, 2015
Vlassov V. JAMA oncology. 2017. Vol. 3. No. 12. P. 1683-1691.

Question  What is the burden of liver cancer globally, what are the major risk factors for liver cancer across countries, regions, and at the global level and how did these change between 1990 and 2015?

Findings  There were 854 000 incident liver cancer cases and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 disability-adjusted life-years. Hepatitis B virus infection accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), hepatitis C virus infection for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths.

Meaning  Most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use.


Importance  Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use.

Objective  To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes.

Design, Settings, and Participants  Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs.

Main Outcomes and Measures  Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year.

Results  There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies.

Conclusions and Relevance  Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

Added: Oct 8, 2017
Dubois J., Dehaene-Lambertz G., Kulikova S. et al. Neuroscience. 2015. Vol. 276. P. 48-71.

Studying how the healthy human brain develops is important to understand early pathological mechanisms and to assess the influence of fetal or perinatal events on later life. Brain development relies on complex and intermingled mechanisms especially during gestation and first post-natal months, with intense interactions between genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors. Although the baby's brain is organized early on, it is not a miniature adult brain: regional brain changes are asynchronous and protracted, i.e. sensory-motor regions develop early and quickly, whereas associative regions develop later and slowly over decades. Concurrently, the infant/child gradually achieves new performances, but how brain maturation relates to changes in behavior is poorly understood, requiring non-invasive in vivo imaging studies such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Two main processes of early white matter development are reviewed: (1) establishment of connections between brain regions within functional networks, leading to adult-like organization during the last trimester of gestation, (2) maturation (myelination) of these connections during infancy to provide efficient transfers of information. Current knowledge from post-mortem descriptions and in vivo MRI studies is summed up, focusing on T1- and T2-weighted imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, and quantitative mapping of T1/T2 relaxation times, myelin water fraction and magnetization transfer ratio.

Added: Oct 22, 2015
Coates D. C., Wicker P., Breuer C. International Journal of Public Health. 2015. Vol. 25. No. 5. P. 864-868.

Significant positive effects on subjective well-being can already be observed after a period as short as 4 weeks. Policy makers should support the provision of such time-efficient programs which are appealing to overweight population groups. Copyright Swiss School of Public Health 2015

Added: Dec 9, 2015
Nye J. V., Bruhanov M., Kochergina E. V. et al. Economics and Human Biology. 2017. Vol. 24. P. 43-60.

Is in utero exposure to testosterone correlated with earnings? The question matters for understanding determinants of wage differences that have attracted so much attention among economists in the past decade. Evidence indicates that markers for early testosterone exposure are correlated with traits like risk-taking and aggressiveness. But it is not at all clear how such findings might map into labor market success. We combine unique data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey with measured markers (2D:4D ratios) for testosterone exposure and find that lower digit ratios (higher T) correlate with higher wages for women and for men, when controlling for age, education and occupation. There is also some evidence of a potential non-linear, inverse U-effect of digit ratios on wages but this is sensitive to choice of specification. These findings are consistent with earlier work on prenatal T and success in careers (Coates et al., 2009) but inconsistent with the work of Gielen et al. (2016) who find differing effects for men and women.

Added: Nov 28, 2016
Vlassov V. European Journal of Public Health. 2012. Vol. 22. No. 6. P. 752-752.

Wave-shaped changes in the life span of Russian citizes remains mainly unexplained, but the last ten years provide some reasons to think that increase in the funding of the health care is accompanied by increase in the lenght of life

Added: Mar 16, 2014
Vukovic D., Petrovic M., Demirovic D. et al. Journal of the Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić". 2017. Vol. 67. No. 1. P. 37-52.

The paper deals with conceptual guidelines, basic aspects and spatial frameworks of the development of agritourism. The holistic approach, in this regard, includes the integrated and the comprehensive aspects of tourist stays in the countryside. The authors define the impact of agritourism on rural surroundings and analyze the influence of spending leisure time outside urban areas and consuming agritourism activities. Understanding the many components of agritourism is essential for future planning, management, business decisions and strategies. For success in agritourism, knowledge is necessary in many economic fields, including organization, management and marketing, among others. In addition, this article emphasizes products and services in agritourism and provides insight into the facilities and opportunities that are offered to tourists in rural areas. The research findings represent a useful tool for obtaining information about many elements of agritourism development and can serve as a relevant instrument in travel industry research or in academic investigation.

Added: Dec 23, 2017
Shchekotikhin A., Glazunova V.A., Dezhenkova L. et al. European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry. 2011. Vol. 46. No. 1. P. 423-428.

We developed the synthesis of a series of furan-fused tetracyclic analogues of the antitumor agent ametantrone. The reactions included nucleophilic substitution of propoxy groups in 4,11-dipropoxyanthra[2,3-b]furan-5,10-diones with ethylenediamines, producing the derivatives of 4,11-diaminoanthra[2,3-b] furan-5,10-dione in good yields. Studies of anti-proliferative activity on a panel of mammalian tumor cell lines demonstrated that anthra[2,3-b]furan-5,10- diones were the most potent derivatives among heteroarene-fused ametantrone analogues with one heteroatom. We identified several compounds that evoked a growth inhibitory effect at submicromolar concentrations. The anthra[2,3-b]furan-5,10-dione 9 with distal methylamino groups was markedly potent against drug-resistant cell lines with P-glycoprotein overexpression or p53 gene deletion. Furthermore, this derivative attenuated in vitro topoisomerase I-mediated DNA uncoiling at low micromolar concentrations. These results demonstrate that anthrafurandiones are a new class of heterocyclic anthraquinone derivatives with the properties potentially valuable for anticancer therapy.



Added: Jul 14, 2015
Gerry C., Li C. A., Kim B. Journal of Population Economics. 2004. Vol. 17. No. 2. P. 267-288.

This paper re-examines the gender wage gap in Russia between 1994 and 1998 taking into account the pervasiveness of Russia’s non-payment institutions. Using censored regression techniques we investigate wage discrimination at different sections of the income distribution and for various important sub-groups. We find that the wage gap is distributed unevenly. Most notably, women at the lower end of the income distribution suffer the highest degree of discrimination. However, we find that wage arrears and payment in-kind attenuated wage discrimination, particularly amongst the lowest paid workers, suggesting that Russian enterprise managers assigned importance to equity considerations when allocating these forms of non-payment.

Added: Nov 25, 2015
Vlassov V. JAMA Oncology. 2015. Vol. 1. No. 4. P. 505-527.


Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies.


To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013.


The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.


In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100,000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100,000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries.


Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the global burden of cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.


Added: Jun 7, 2015
Vlassov V. Injury Prevention. 2016. Vol. 22. No. 1. P. 3-18.


Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country.

Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures.

Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries.

Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.


Added: Jan 2, 2016
Vlassov V. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2018. Vol. 18. No. 3. P. 261-284.

Background An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings  Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis.

Added: Dec 5, 2017
Vlassov V.V. The Lancet. 2016. Vol. 388. No. 10049. P. 1081-1088.


With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013.


We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).


Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86–0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38–1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6–32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1–44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45–0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61–1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2–33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9–45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990.


Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health.

Added: Jul 9, 2016